General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Yeah this worries me too. I can’t quite believe people voted for a party of racists and bigots. Can only hope labour deliver now.

13 seats lmao... not quite!

Yeah, I'm glad that Nigel Farage hasn't done nearly as well as the exit poll suggested, although the vote share is still pretty concerning.

You're not wrong, but I think calling people racists and bigots for voting for a particular party just makes them more determined to vote that way.

I'm glad of the Reform vote in my constituency, delivered us a Labour MP on the Isle of Wight, which has never happened in history.

Some might call them useful idiots, I can't possibly comment.

The OP isn't standing up well, the polls seem to have been broadly accurate.

The other is South West Norfolk, that’s a really interesting one because it’s Liz Truss’ seat. Yes, she was (is) awful but knowing that area I can’t see it going Labour

From the OP. I hope she comes back!

I was just browsing through the BBC newsfeed when suddenly this thread popped into my head.

There’s rather a lot of egg on face here. Quite amusing. Of course the political scientists are almost certain to get it right.

Ditto,delighted that the exit poll was wrong in the amount of seats. I think that many Tories wanted a vote for what they considered real conservatism ,as was said last night by so many Tories. Labour need time to sort out the issues we as a country face it won't change tomorrow.

Mine stayed conservative

if we just had it between cons and lab and assumed the larger than i would prefer reform vote was split between them and all the right parties voted con and the left voted lab, then…

bear with me…

it would have been very close 😀

The question is where do the Tories go now?

If they moved more towards the centre with someone like Jeremy Hunt as leader then they might recover some of those Lib Dem seats, but then they'd be leaving the further right end of the spectrum wide open for Farage.

But if they go full loony they won't do a very good job of holding Labour to account.

I think it's going to take a while to figure out what the remainder of the Tory party looks like now.

I'm amazed at how accurate it was given all the boundary changes and the disrupting influence of Farage.

Mine stayed conservative and the polls had it as going lib dem when I looked. It was close though.

This has aged very well 😁

It is funny to read, but no one can come back to admit they were wrong as they've all eaten their ipads and have nothing to type on anymore.

This may be true. The poster that said today would be amusing (@iamtheblcksheep ) certainly seems amused here -

iamtheblcksheep·Original·Today 00:42
I will be very clear. Sterner will get his hands on very little of my money. I will hide through legal measures every god dam. I’ve worked my bollocks off to build a successful business. I’m afraid you’re going to have to find another chump to pay for your ‘better benefits system’

Agreed. On the other hand, if there's one thing about the rise of Reform that gives me a little glimmer of hope, it's that their success seems to come at least partly from putting more effort into not seeming like a bunch of racists than some other right wing challenger parties have in the past.

A fairly large chunk of their vote comes from disaffected Conservative voters, and one consequence of the rushed build up to this election was that people had limited opportunity to understand what Reform actually stands for. I very much hope that their support will dwindle as people see them in their true colours.

I’ve only just seen this thread this morning and am loving it. OP sounds a bit like my FIL who was convinced last night that the actual results would be on a knife edge. Bless. 😂

I'm back and guess what Labour did take the constituency I live in and with a sizeable majority!!!!

I'm surprised as it's been Conservative since time began.
We have had a boundary change though so 2 have become 3 constituencies and the other 2 are still blue so i do think the boundary change has influenced the result.

I'm glad to say Reform didn't do very well here and the Conservatives were way ahead of them 🙂

Right, I'm off to show my arse on the townhall steps now 😂

The result was pretty much what I thought it would be. So many people I saw talking about tactical voting and i thought in this election that wasn’t going to be a thing. Our area has been conservative for as long as I can remember but I’ve not spoken to one person who was voting conservative , either labour or reform.

An update on those Suffolk seats referred to earlier in thread:

1. Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket: LABOUR GAIN
2. Central Suffolk and North Ipswich: CONSERVATIVE HOLD
3. Ipswich: LABOUR GAIN
4. Lowestoft: LABOUR GAIN
5. South Suffolk: CONSERVATIVE HOLD
6. Suffolk Coastal: LABOUR GAIN
7. Waveney Valley: GREEN GAIN
8. West Suffolk: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Well, one of these went to Labour!

I was wrong and I'm delighted!
They weren't even as close as I expected. I bow down to the polls in future, I just thought it was too good to be true!

Of all of them Tewkesbury was the biggest surprise. I know many people in that constituency who have REALLY wanted to get rid of the incumbent for ages but weren't sure which way to lean as the vote has always been so evenly split on the left - looks like people got properly organised this time. 😆

Labour didn’t take my constituency, nor nearby Jeremy Hunt’s. Though close, I am in a very safe Tory area.

I was correct in my prediction that Reform UK would do better than expected, not in seats, but they are the third biggest party in the UK by popular vote.

Whatever your opinion of Reform UK, it is clear to me that we need to move to a proportional system in this country; the election results do not represent the voting of the public accurately, and haven’t done for many years. It should not be that a party, in this case Labour, can essentially get complete control of parliament whilst winning only a third of the votes of the electorate.