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General Election Polling - completely off

598 replies

Rusty101 · 03/07/2024 02:45

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

OP posts:
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MJon · 04/07/2024 22:50

cardibach · 04/07/2024 22:03

What do you all think now you seethe exit poll?

Good fucking riddance.

YaWeeFurryBastard · 04/07/2024 22:50

cardibach · 04/07/2024 22:20

Fair. Lots on here we’re saying it would be a huge shock and nobody was voting Labour.

I would put them in the same daft bucket as those rejoicing at the exit poll because they were worried reform were going to win 😂.

RufustheFactualReindeer · 04/07/2024 22:51

84% conservative hold here, i think labour will do very well compared to normal. But not enough to flip it

OrwellianTimes · 04/07/2024 22:54

croydon15 · 04/07/2024 20:06

Funny l remember WMD and the Iraq war but some people have short memories

WMD and Iraq war were all overseas- out of sight out of mind.

Partygate was on home soil.

Not saying one was less terrible than the other, just that the collective thoughts of the masses are more influenced by home affairs.

DanielGault · 04/07/2024 22:59

I'm watching Sky News and I swear they're all on the sherry!

Welshphoenix · 04/07/2024 23:04

Exit poll showing both my constituency and the one next to us flipped us from Tory to labour , next door from Tory to plaid

T1Dmama · 04/07/2024 23:05

Polls are anonymous though so people have no need to be ‘shy’ about saying who they’ll vote for.
I was going to vote one way though (tactically) then when stood in the cubicle I just couldn’t in good conscience vote for the party when I absolutely hate everything about the current leader!

DeadlyKnightshade · 05/07/2024 00:23

Sladuf · 03/07/2024 03:06

YANBU at all. You would think given what happened in the 1992 and 2015 general elections and polling before the Brexit referendum, which was also proven to be rubbish, that more people would distrust opinion poll predictions.

i think the number of seats being predicted for Labour could well be hugely overestimated; that we may end up with a hung Parliament situation where Labour is the largest party or they end up with a tiny working majority. Both situations have happened before.

The so-called “Shy Tory” factor has been attributed to causing the significant variance between the opinion poll predictions and the actual results in the 1992 and 2015 elections. In my eyes this is a case of it’s happened before, it’ll happen again.

A hung parliament is looking exceptionally unlikely after the exit poll.

OMGitsnotgood · 05/07/2024 06:20

Not completely off then!

VickyEadieofThigh · 05/07/2024 06:25

Farage's speech was chilling with his prediction of what he reckons is to come from them.

We should all fear the rise of this deeply unpleasant man and his followers.

Cangar · 05/07/2024 06:33

iamtheblcksheep · 03/07/2024 07:03

Labour are predicted to take my seat. There’s honestly more chance of hell freezing over. I don’t know a single person voting labour.

Friday is going to be amusing on here

Are you finding it amusing?

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:40

watching live, waiting for Truss (Kings Lynn)

Pretty chuffed with that result, we got the first ever Labour MP on the Isle of Wight. Great chap, he'll do very well for us.

OMGitsnotgood · 05/07/2024 06:41

Interesting that she is 'nowhere to be seen'@BezMills

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:45

yeah it won't surprise me if she's off in a cream puff

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:46

her colleague on BBC dropping massive truth bombs and sick burns on Truss.

Slow hand claps at the count, for Truss the Truant

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:48

Truss on stage.

verdantverdure · 05/07/2024 06:49

Truss has lost

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:49

11847 labour, 9958 reform, 3618 liberal, 11217 truss

LABOUR

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:50

26000 majority kaboomed

verdantverdure · 05/07/2024 06:50

verdantverdure · 05/07/2024 06:49

Truss has lost

To Labour

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:51

that was close, 600 votes in it

BezMills · 05/07/2024 06:53

Truss leaving without a speech (salty salty)

OMGitsnotgood · 05/07/2024 06:53

Very close, shows the importance of voting.

SnakesAndArrows · 05/07/2024 06:55

iamtheblcksheep · 03/07/2024 07:38

One of the Suffolk seats. It’s the same across all of Anglia. Labour have no chance but keep peddling that propaganda wheel that there’s going to be a conservative wipeout. It’s keeping me greatly entertained.

East Anglia is looking pretty multi-coloured to me.

BezMills · 05/07/2024 07:02

Our excellent Green candidate in Isle of Wight East, Vix Lowthion, didn't get elected. I dared to hope that we would be an island with zero Tory MPs, but sadly not.

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