General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Yes around 7pm on GE day Labour and Conservative canvassers will knock on our doors asking if people need lifts to the polling stations

Why are you voting Tory? Are you happy with the decline in public services since 2010, the shocking state of the NHS, the pollution in our rivers, crumbling schools, billions wasted and given to cronies for useless PPE during the pandemic....the list of Tory failures is endless and they will leave the country in a much worse state than they found it. So why are you voting Tory?

I think you are describing tellers. They aren't officials. They hang around outside the polling station. But they cross of votes numbers if you chose to tell them, and then can go chase up people that said they would vote for them when door stopping.

Could be because the Tories are traditionally a low-tax party, so let you keep more of your money (although look how well that turned out…) and are way more hands-off than Labour, so let you enjoy your civic freedom. Just my two cents. I agree with you though. They’ve done so much harm (although I’m not a Tory voter and will never vote for them anyway).

In what way did they not get Brexit? Brexit happened and it has been as disastrous for the country as predicted and if they thought it would be positive they fell for the lies that Farage and Johnson told. Lies that Farage continues to spew.

Maybe, but a lot went on, and I’m gojng from memory and it was over 40 years ago.

No it hasn’t happened. Nothing we voted for has happened. None of the establishment had the slightest intention that it should be delivered.

All that has been delivered is a load of shrieking by remoaners.

Anyway, it’s a pointless debate. And it can’t be explained to those that don’t see it and doesn’t need explaining to those that do.

See you Friday!

Individuals aren't very good at predicting elections because we tend to surround ourselves with like minded people.

There are tens of thousands of people in an electoral constituency. You probably know a couple of hundred.

you'd assume DH and i were classic conservatives & we live in that sort of area.

I'm absolute die hard Labour.

It has happened, it was delivered.

You didn't get what you voted for because what you voted for was a collection of fantasies, the outcomes of which were often opposed to each other.

The different things promised were not deliverable, but you fell for it, because of flags and nostalgia and whatever.

"None of the establishment" who are the establishment?

Pathetic.
You can't explain what you didn't get from Brexit because you didn't know what you wanted. You just fell for the lies of Farage and Johnson who blamed the EU for problems in this country when they were nothing to do with the EU - the UK has suffered from years of poor UK government decisions which have failed to address peoples needs.

So you got to leave the EU - big hoorah - but things didn't get better because the EU wasn't the problem in the first place so now all you can do is whine about Brexit not being delivered.

And you fall for the lies of Farage again.

Depressing.

The parties have tellers outside the polling station. They ask for your polling number. If you tell them they cross reference it with their canvass records, and they knock the doors of those they expect to vote for them who haven't yet voted.

This is standard - all parties do it in their target seats.

All that has been delivered is a load of shrieking by remoaners

youre the one moaning

i didnt get the brexit i wanted 😭

you won’t be here on friday

No it’s because I can’t be bothered debating shit with you.

But not everyone responds to them.

I certainly never have.

So this "data" would be a flawed way of coming to the conclusions about Labour voters stated above.

Because you can't.

Exactly. I always remind them that it’s supposed to be a secret ballot.

Well it didn't get delivered at all.
We were promised 350 m a week for the NHS
Stop immigration (from the EU but many thought it meant return to traditional white communities )
Lower tax
Return to Britain as an imperial power
these are the main things reform are campaigning on.

Most of the things Brexit actually delivered are no use to man nor beast so haven't satisfied these voters who voted leave in good faith believing people who told them these things

Farmers and Northern Irish protestants are 2 groups who really lost out through voting leave. It's quite clear that they simply didn't understand what they were voting for. I work with farmers and many openly admit this

I agree - Brexit was a shit idea.

The Tories delivered the closest thing to what you voted for that was actually within their power to deliver.

Sadly the unicorns were out of stock.

Those are not the things reform are campaigning on.

I'm sure you're a parody now lol

They are. What do you think reform are campaigning on???

I agree with you but I am presenting the view of the misled Brexit voter (farting)

I think the Conservative Party have had a long time in power and have shown themselves to not only be incompetent but also lacking in any moral fibre. They have lied, been corrupt and have trashed the country. Yes they had COVID to deal with but some countries fared Al lot better than we did and the evidence was there.

There are some good Conservative MPs but mostly the party have picked the worst ones to be up front.

Partygate, I think, lost them lots of loyalty. Most people stuck to the rules and missed key significant life events - people missed saying goodbye to dying relatives - and then we found out they’d been partying in No 10. And really that’s the thing that lots of party faithfuls just couldn’t consider voting for them now.

I think a lot of voters just want a proper grown up, with a moral compass, good values and intelligence at the helm. Especially given an impending World War and the threats from climate change.

I think we may be surprised just how much they get wiped out. Who in their right mind would stick with a party who have been such utter failures?

You got your Brexit. We left the EU - that was it, that was your Brexit.

Anything else you feel you’re entitled to were just lies you believed, deployed to sugar coat the shit sandwich of isolating the UK from its closest economic powerhouse.

And if you’re truly insane you’ll vote for the same liars again. And they won’t end all migration or whatever bollocks they’re luring you in with, and even if they did, it wouldn’t solve any of your problems. It would just make you the front line for the exploitation the reform ultra-capitalists are planning to unleash, removing your ECHR and Equality Act protections to make sure you can’t fight back.

Know who you’re voting for.

@Payattentioninclass Brexit happened and it has been as disastrous for the country as predicted and if they thought it would be positive they fell for the lies that Farage and Johnson told.

Did you really not do any independent research into the EU / the management and politics of the EU when we were given the choice to Remain or Stay?

Were the British people as a whole not capable of researching for themselves the pros and cons of Remain/Leave?

Why are you assuming the public just listened to politicians and based their decision on what they were told?

Some people researched the pros and cons.

Some people just believed what they were told.

The government of the time gave a mandate to the people, because there was a lot of disquiet over the conditions being imposed on Britain by the EU at that time - and the British people made their decision.

Who knows what that decision was based on .............?
But the Government didn't decide - the public did.

Tbh, it's like General Elections - the public just can't believe that a government isn't carrying out its manifesto pledges - but they said that's what they'd do - and yet we don't hold them to proper account at the time.

So, when will we learn to hold them to account while they are in power and not just by voting them out because we're fed up ..............??

We're voting the Tories out now because we're fed up and want a change - and we're voting for Labour not because we know their policies are better, but because we want a change.

We don't know what the change is going to be ................ but we're just assuming it's going to be better.

Which is exactly the same reason we voted out Labour last time.

And voted Tory in the time before .............

No. No they haven’t. With FPTP voting, small discrepancies get magnified, but percentage voting intentions are usually pretty accurate.