General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Not flawed, just incomplete.

The data they get is very useful, and you're not giving anything they won't get later anyway - parties get access to the marked register which shows who voted.

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/ The correlation between age and turnout is longstanding.

Return to Britain as an imperial power

Sorry, what??! You thought Britain would rule other countries again?

What you actually mean is "It's because I haven’t got any rational arguments to use in a debate and I haven’t got the integrity to admit it, so I’ll just pretend I can’t be bothered."

Usually the way!

Well, we are about to see what happens today!

Wow!

The EU did not "impose' conditions. The UK was a member of a team and had as much chance to lead and shape what the team did as other countries. EU decisions result from voting from member countries representatives in Brussels and from MEPs in the European Parliament. The UK joined the team but rather than act as a team player it - or rather our govts - would scapegoat the EU to distract from their own failings. The UK could have been the leading player in the EU and was for some of the biggest developments - the EU Single Market which boosted the UK economyfor example - but more often chose to complain and not commit. Had UK politicians been honest and positive about EU membership instead of criticising for decades Brexit would noy have happened as Farage and his lies would have had no gained no traction except amongst nostalgia-buffs and racists.

And no, I do not believe the majority of referendum voters did research into the EU.

I find that no matter how coherent an argument, no matter how much evidence I present, no matter how much I stress the research I did before the Remain / Leave vote, I still get told I am misinformed, racist, an idiot etc. People are passionate on both sides, but I cannot seem to have a reasonable discussion with anyone on ‘the other side’ about it.

I’ve given up trying to debate it. If we were able to have a reasoned debate without name-calling, I’d be glad to discuss my decision to vote Leave, but unfortunately that has never happened and so now I don’t bother.

Well, since it’s logically impossible that leaving a large trading group could improve your economy, since we were part of decision making so didn’t have ‘laws imposed’ etc etc it’s no wonder people wonder about your research. I’ve tried to have loads of reasoned debates with leave voters. What usually happens is they tell me something that’s - we’ll, you said it - a misconception (or an outright lie they’ve believed) and then they tell me I’m not listening and I’m accusing them of being an idiot. Is that what’s happening for you?
No leave voter has ever given me a reason that wasn’t wrong or over stated or just irrelevant to the way the country was run.

Well said @Payattentioninclass

That site is very inaccurate for my area SNP held it with 51 %of the vote last time and it's claiming 26Cant see the prediction being accurate based on historically incorrect figures The only poll that matters is the election result

We were just asked this by a woman with a Labour rosette so she was politically affiliated.

The tories have been extremely deceitful re every election in the last 14 years. The tories have always had 90% of the press on their side, meantime, Labour only has to hint at a penny more tax or any mistake and that extreme right wing propaganda machine comes down on them like a ton of bricks. I'm sure they have got a bit of a hidden agenda but it will only bother those that have gotten fat in the last 14 years of Torydom, so who cares whether a billionair will have to declare a bit of their income going forward? What we can expect is a functioning NHS and 99% less corruption.

It is the reason I hate polls the labour vote will stay home thinking there is no need to go out. The Tory vote and green vote will always go out. Polls do more harm than good and should be banned for the entire period of the election run up

They have to wear a rosette to show they are affiliated o a party they all do it. I have stood outside a polling station many times over the years doing exactly this

Turnout’s higher than expected with four hours to go. High turnout traditionally benefits Labour.

Yes it does and I can only hope that is right. In my area we have a Tory mp who has voted against anything that will help normal people, claimed expenses to pay his mortgage and then has to resign from the cabinet position because his wife and family wasn't enough for him so had to go after interns in his office. So fingers crossed we will get some new red blood in his place

Fingers crossed @Welshphoenix. 🙏

I think more people than usual are voting tactically this year. I certainly did - I want a labour government, but have voted Lib Dem simply because that’s the only chance of getting out the awful Tory MP we have been burdened with for years. I actually like the LD candidate as well, he is experienced, local, and cares about the environment. It’s predicted to be a huge LD majority in my constituency, but I don’t know how that prediction is calculated as exit polls aren’t really a thing in our rural community.

That site was predicting a Labour win for us (although v close) on Tuesday. It's changed to Con hold today which I sadly feel is more likely. Which is a shame because I'd really hoped we'd be rid of the slimy git we currently have.

His predecessor, although Tory, was a decent bloke and v helpful to his constituents, although I don't like the party I wasn't sad when he kept his seat. This current toad not so much.

Local factors and independent candidates don't seem to be factored in much. In my case the 2019 result depended a bit on local factors.

We live next to a polling station. Judging by the amount of traffic, it’s rural and we live on a no through road, the turnout here is massive. When I voted this morning the officers said they had been unusually busy.
A big turnout could well return a surprising result.
Over 40% of the population are over 55 and this demographic will be directly affected by the potential tax implications of a Labour government. They are also the demographic most likely to be bothered to vote.
My DS19 chose not to vote, quite rightly he didn’t feel that he had the experience or had been given enough info by any party to make a decision. He has decided to see how things go under a Labour government before making a decision at the next election.
We are rural, with a lot of friends and family involved in farming, DS was knowledgeable about the impact on this sector but felt that no party had addressed his generation. He is also about to start uni so does have some concerns about tuition and the possibility of VAT on fees.
I am quite impressed that he has thought about it. I did suggest that he could spoil a vote but he thinks that is a stupid idea.

Our polling station was busy but it was lunchtime when we went.

Let us know how your result went @Angrymum22

Didn’t your DS think it was his duty to find out the information? It’s pretty freely available online. I’m also not entirely sure what you mean by the ‘tax implications of a Labour government’ - there aren’t any. They aren’t raising taxes (though as an over 55 voter myself I wish they would).
Theres zero possibility of VaT on fees by the way.

I'm in the London suburbs and I see so many people turning away from the Tories for multiple reasons.

One is simply that we need a change.
Second is the anger at Boris / COVID and Liz Truss / economy.

The other threat to the Tories is Reform party who seem to have captured the whole working class Tory vote.

Likely to go Lib Dem here, with my brother pointing out to me that they are further left than Labour.

I think you're right about the supermajority nonsense. But I do think it will swing.