General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Within my own work colleagues and social circle people have volunteered the information with no prompts or particular context if they intent to vote Labour, Lib Dem, Green but no one is saying they will vote Conservative or Reform and a significant number have not joined in. So the quiet Tory/reformer might be a thing tomorrow!

Further thoughts:

1. There are plenty of genuine Tories on here and not every Tory is a bot, or even most, but I think it's naive to think that the Tories haven't tried to push some lines/narratives via a site like this one.
2. After 1992 a lot of polling corrections were made to account for shy Tories etc so a lot of what people are talking about has already been priced into the model, so to speak.

1. (I knew there was a third point I was forgetting) Unprecedented things are only unprecedented until they happen. It may seem unlikely that certain seats will go Labour in the same way that it seemed unlikely that many red wall seats would go Tory. They, too, would have "elected a donkey in a red rosette" and "never voted Tory"... until they did.

Pushing the "at least the Tories know what a woman is" is fairly new and obviously designed for a site like this.
I'm not really on other sites, but if I was on, say, car enthusiasts, I'm sure they'd be pushing about how Labour is going to make car ownership impossible in the future. And so on.

Yes and if people like public services, they'll be pushing that another 5 years of Tory rule would completely destroy them.

(not RTFT…)

Our historically very safe Tory seat is predicted to go to Labour. Which really surprised me. But when I dug in to the data, it showed that actually it’s only predicting a small increase in Labour votes, but a big number going from Conservative to Reform. That I can believe.

The people on here have been keeping an eye on what all the parties have been saying on FWR.

We don't need any Tory Shills coming here to trick our little baby brains and tell us nonsense that we will dumbly accept, and I haven't noticed any to be honest. I've noticed at least one prolific labour shill on FWR (god what a tiresome bore they is) but most people there are despairing that Tory might be the least worst vote they can make, and wondering how that is even possible. They are angry about Labour's clear disregard for women, which is entirely something Labour has done, nothing to do with the mean old tricky tories and their Mumbrain Bamboozlement Unit.

For my constituency it's giving a 99% chance of a win for LD from the Tories with 53% of the vote. We've been Tory for the last 3 GEs and before that it was LD for about 20 years, and Tory prior to that. It's also saying all wards will switch from. Tory to LD. There's been a boundary change, but the two surrounding seats are also currently Tory.

I won't be surprised if the seat goes to the lib Dems, but not by as much. They are very unpopular in some quarters as the council are LD and have racked up huge debt on irresponsible development, and the Tory MP has been very good at holding them to account. If they have the MP as well it could be disastrous for the area.

Our MP is moving to the new constituency next door, but the new guy is very proactive and seems like a good guy who would work hard for the area.

Going to be interesting to see who ends up being the opposition party, that could be a close call.

I'll be so happy if it's the Lib Dems.

I can't see how the Tories could hold anyone to account after the mess they've made of everything.

My area too, I was surprised it said Lib Dem as it’s a Tory stronghold, with a sitting Tory mp.

"Mumbrain Bamboozlement Unit"

I’m in a (unfortunately) very safe Tory seat - it’s been Tory for over 50 years! This poll is predicting a huge Labour win by a landslide - I thinks it’s way off - sure the younger people are mostly planning to vote Labour but I reckon a lot of the older people will still vote Tory. If Labour win in my area, it certainly won’t be by a landslide. This poll is crazy

I think people do not realise for every 'left leaning woman' they believe Labour has lost a vote from ,other left leaning/ further left than New New Labour people (including women !) have decided to vote Green or Lib Dem over issues such as culture wars or Gaza.

I don't think either of these Labour deserting factions are as big as some posters on here like to think. Those issues do not play to a large crowd.

The exception will be Jeremy Corbyn who will likely win his seat.

The exception will be Jeremy Corbyn who will likely win his seat.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/general-election-2024/5111077-im-hearing-jeremy-corbyn-is-going-to-lose-his-seat

I don't think the Sun is backing Labour. It doesn't want to back the losing side either, so it's gone for ambiguity. But it obviously is saying Sunak is toast as leader.

Really surprised that Corbyn might lose his seat. There will be gnashing of teeth from my DH as he remains an ardent fan, as do most of our friends.

Everything's a bit mental about this election though, isn't it?

100% agree with all of this.

So tired of people complaining about the state of the country and then saying things like "why should my kids have to pay inheritance tax?".

I once saw in a nice village in Oxfordshire a huge thatched cottage (probably worth upwards of a million quid) which had a poster pinned to its front gate "No to Ladygrove expansion". This referred to a proposal to expand a housing development about FOUR MILES AWAY.

I wonder why people keep trotting out '14 years of devastation' like it is fact.

It is not fact.

10 years paying off the labour debts from the Blair and Brown years, and we were nearly bankrupt overnight them. Back then Labour's name was mud. They had over spent and then some, and left us in a perilous state when the financial meltdown hit.

3 years of pandemic fire fighting

1 year Ukraine war and cost of living

None of this was the fault of the conservatives. In the meantime they did delivery democracy and offer a referendum, and despite being reluctant to do so initially, also delivered the result, as any democracy should.

Labour are going to set us back another ten years after this, because Starm, Raynor and crew are even worse this time around.

They had over spent and then some, and left us in a perilous state when the financial meltdown hit.

You know perfectly well that’s not true. No money was repaid post 2010, despite austerity the debt just grew.

They had to bail out the banks! And yes austerity was to reclaim some financial credence. You do realise we nearly had to have a bailout from the IMF?

That is fact.

"There’s an air of slightly offended surprise around both Butler and Docherty, men who must feel they did everything right in pursuit of becoming a Tory MP in the heartlands — and are now on the brink of being gently flattened by Labour’s army of busy mums in ankleboots."

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-lost-heart-soul-general-election-pm-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-truss/?utmsource=Twitter&utmm_medium=social

Let's wait and see.

A news reporter doing a vox pop said she had never ever anywhere had so many people spontaneously stop to tell her how helpful their MP had been to them personally as she had when she visited Corbyn's constituency.

Leaving the house for the school run, and a nice lady had come to give me an election newspaper from Mr Seely (con, big majority). I said to her "I appreciate you giving up your time for politics, even if they're not my politics".
Then I put it in the recycling right in front of her.
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