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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

General Election Polling - completely off

598 replies

Rusty101 · 03/07/2024 02:45

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
BezMills · 03/07/2024 11:44

I have to say there are two specific individuals down the pub who I am expecting to be crying blue tears on Friday, and I won't mind that at all. I'll bring my red hankie for them.

We are a strong Tory seat which has been split in two. Best case - Red and Green. Worst case, Reform and Tory.

I'm actually quite excited to roll the dice, let's see what happens!

thecatsthecats · 03/07/2024 11:46

tennesseewhiskey1 · 03/07/2024 11:05

well if mumsnet is to be believed, the tories might only retain 1 seat and labour will get the 528648364784 other seats. :) - i can tell you tho, no one i know is voting labour... but you know. Majority, landslide, hooray KS etc etc.

This is only really relevant if you know thousands of people, you know that, right?

I didn't know a single leave voter, but I wasn't thick enough to question their existence.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 03/07/2024 11:46

CelesteCunningham · 03/07/2024 06:34

I'm a mathematician and I'm very sceptical of any model where the underlying assumptions may not hold, or of accepting model results that are close to an untested boundary. I know next to nothing about polling but I suspect we're in that territory here, and wouldn't want to be trying to predict the final number of seats with any accuracy.

However, that's about the size of the Labour majority and the number of seats going to the other parties. I don't see anything other than a Labour government with a sizeable majority.

I agree with this.

A large number of constituencies have been abolished and new ones created, which makes it a lot harder to predict the outcome of a general election even in normal times, and these are not normal times.

Labour will win though. The only question is by how much.

feellikeanalien · 03/07/2024 11:50

Our constituency has never had a Labour MP and the current Tory MP has a majority of around 10,000 but if you look at the website OP is referring to then Labour are predicted to get over 50% of the vote. There has been a boundary change bringing in a Labour voting area so whether this will make the difference I don't know.

Both Tory and Labour candidates are local and I have had so many leaflets from Labour . Apparently Angela Raynor was recently in the constituency but as we're in a very rural part of it we've had no canvassers apart from the Tory MP but sadly I was out.

It will be interesting as a very large part of the constituency is rural with lots of farms. For some reason LibDems are way behind and as there isn't a Reform candidate standing to affect the Tory vote I would be loath to predict the result

BezMills · 03/07/2024 11:50

My conversations with local tory voters indicate that even their own staunch support think the PCP are an absolute shower and need to go. It's only a question who will stay at home on polling day and who will drift to Frag Grenade's party. I don't expect a significant drift from Tory to Labour on individual basis - can't think of a single tory voter that can stomach voting for KS.

verdantverdure · 03/07/2024 11:51

MasterShardlake · 03/07/2024 11:41

An elderly relative has been a labour voter all her life. She lives in Skegness, Lincolnshire which has been a safe Tory seat for the past 9 years.

She'll be voting Tory tomorrow for the first time ever, doesn't want to but there's massive support for Reform and tactical voting may prevent them getting in.
Labour has no chance and it would be a wasted vote.

Yeah that is a tough one. Talk about between a rock and a hard place. Good bless her for doing what needs to be done.

CheshireCat1 · 03/07/2024 11:57

I’m in a very safe Labour seat, but lots of colleagues that I know are voting Reform, I’ve no idea why.

CyanideShake · 03/07/2024 11:58

Talk of Tory bots has made me realise I haven’t seen Clavinova firing up the boards. Someone must have taken their batteries out.

verdantverdure · 03/07/2024 12:03

RufustheFactualReindeer · 03/07/2024 10:39

I don’t doubt there are shit stirrers on mumsnet at the moment but i think you would be very silly just to think its only the one political party

There were a few posters the other day who didn't exactly seem au fait with recent British political history. One seemed to think there had been a General Election in 2020 for example. It did make my nose twitch a bit.

noblegiraffe · 03/07/2024 12:04

CyanideShake · 03/07/2024 11:58

Talk of Tory bots has made me realise I haven’t seen Clavinova firing up the boards. Someone must have taken their batteries out.

If you are missing her she is playing her greatest hits all over the ‘what you will picture as you vote out the Tories’ thread.

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 12:08

CyanideShake · 03/07/2024 11:58

Talk of Tory bots has made me realise I haven’t seen Clavinova firing up the boards. Someone must have taken their batteries out.

She’s still present and incorrect.

cavalier · 03/07/2024 12:10

BezMills · 03/07/2024 11:44

I have to say there are two specific individuals down the pub who I am expecting to be crying blue tears on Friday, and I won't mind that at all. I'll bring my red hankie for them.

We are a strong Tory seat which has been split in two. Best case - Red and Green. Worst case, Reform and Tory.

I'm actually quite excited to roll the dice, let's see what happens!

nothing is ever certain in this life only the obvious so save your hanky just for now

Zonder · 03/07/2024 12:10

baroqueandblue · 03/07/2024 09:41

Absolutely. And as we all know, he literally gets flown in every time he graces his constituency with his multimillionaire presence! 🙄

And to host Christmas drinks for the village like the Lord of the Manor according to a pp!

strawberrybubblegum · 03/07/2024 12:11

It worries me that as someone else said up thread, Reform could be the quiet vote. Hard to tell how much it's Internet hype, but both Left and Right wing people are now openly saying they'll vote that way, and more will be hiding it.

I think Labour may get less of a majority than is expected (possibly losing voters to Reform, with such a big majority predicted that people assume Labour don't need their vote), but hopefully enough to avoid a hung parliament. The unpredictability, instability and hamstrung policies of a hung parliament are the last thing we need.

We need a strong opposition too. We all saw what happened in Scotland, when Nicola Sturgeon was able to single-handedly write laws as she chose, because she was too powerful within the SNP, which was too powerful within Hollyrood. The fact that Scotland doesn't have a 2nd house made that much, much worse - so let's hope Starmer doesn't follow through with his intention of getting rid of the house of Lords. We're going to need them.

So whichever way you lean, get out there and vote for who you want in power!

My big worry is what happens next: both during this term and also next election.

The whole world is becoming more extremist, currently mostly swinging to the hard right. I don't want us to follow. (or go to the far left either - the horseshoe of politics meaning that those are actually quite close)

Our problems are more due to global issues than people want to believe, and things are likely to keep getting worse over the next term. After all the euphoria Friday is likely to bring, how can Labour possibly live up to expectations?

If life continues to be difficult - and Reform become normalised as a party - next election could be very different.

Worrying times.

verdantverdure · 03/07/2024 12:12

CyanideShake · 03/07/2024 11:58

Talk of Tory bots has made me realise I haven’t seen Clavinova firing up the boards. Someone must have taken their batteries out.

She kept my thread nicely bumped yesterday

www.mumsnet.com/talk/general-election-2024/5109886-what-picture-will-you-have-in-your-mind-as-you-vote-the-tories-out-on-thursday

AIstolemylunch · 03/07/2024 12:15

My constituency has also never had a Labour MP and currently says Conservative 47% chance of winning Labour 44%. I have lived here 15 years and am pretty active on a number of community groups including involvement with parish and local council groups. As far as I can make out, from multiple conversations over the year and lots of pub talk, I am the only person bar maybe one who has ever admitted to voting Labour in the past (will not be doing so this time).

I get the whole 'get the tories' out thing and I know people have had enough following the Boris/Truss years, jobs for the boys, covid partying etc (understandably) - but I really find it hard to believe that 43% of what was almost 100% are going to actually vote Labour when it comes down to it. No one has ever seen or heard from any Labour candidate here. The current conservative MP is always swanning about, opening fetes, giving talks etc. The people round here are generational tories. If you can imagine a tory safe seat demographic - these people are it. I could see them voting reform (predicted at 8%) but I really struggle to see many of them actually voting Labour when it comes down to it. These are not Red Wall people. Maybe some, but not 40 odd percentage of an entire solid tory area.

I too think the polls are out. I think Labour will get in with a large majority, but it won't be as large as these polls are saying.

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:19

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 03/07/2024 11:16

Even the Tories are conceding defeat today.

https://apple.news/A4zi9hmORSdmxktO0RMmRDg

That is the work of pure genius! That will get them off their bottoms in the shires! :)

SocoBateVira · 03/07/2024 12:19

FPTP does always throw up some results where not especially popular candidates get a seat on well under 50% of the vote because the opposition are split. There'll likely be some Labour MPs who get in that way this time.

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:21

I think we are in for a surprise. I am sensing a big surprise of some kind and it is not a 'super majority' Labour landslide. Maybe a mudslide, but it has the same tension around it that was present with brexit.

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 12:22

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:21

I think we are in for a surprise. I am sensing a big surprise of some kind and it is not a 'super majority' Labour landslide. Maybe a mudslide, but it has the same tension around it that was present with brexit.

Wishful thinking.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 03/07/2024 12:23

We need a strong opposition too. We all saw what happened in Scotland, when Nicola Sturgeon was able to single-handedly write laws as she chose, because she was too powerful within the SNP, which was too powerful within Hollyrood. The fact that Scotland doesn't have a 2nd house made that much, much worse - so let's hope Starmer doesn't follow through with his intention of getting rid of the house of Lords. We're going to need them

Pardon?

Which laws, specifically?

VoteOutToHelpOut · 03/07/2024 12:28

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:21

I think we are in for a surprise. I am sensing a big surprise of some kind and it is not a 'super majority' Labour landslide. Maybe a mudslide, but it has the same tension around it that was present with brexit.

Genuinely, what surprise? Labour will win, the only aspect that is unknown is by how much and how well Reform UK PLC will or won't do.

This is nothing like the referendum. By the day before voting, the polls were really narrow.

MasterShardlake · 03/07/2024 12:29

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:19

That is the work of pure genius! That will get them off their bottoms in the shires! :)

Yes, panic those who want to punish the Tories by not voting, but still complacently assume they will win.

I can vaguely remember an episode of Yes Minister where Humphrey was explaining this tactic...

BloodyHellKenAgain · 03/07/2024 12:33

MasterShardlake · 03/07/2024 12:29

Yes, panic those who want to punish the Tories by not voting, but still complacently assume they will win.

I can vaguely remember an episode of Yes Minister where Humphrey was explaining this tactic...

It's a good political ploy I suppose. Labour have been doing something similar with playing down their predicted win and implying they could still lose.
Nice username BTW @MasterShardlake 🙂

FOJN · 03/07/2024 13:14

Hummingbird75 · 03/07/2024 12:19

That is the work of pure genius! That will get them off their bottoms in the shires! :)

Exactly what it's intended to do.