General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

The bookies agree - they’re going for a landslide too.

Greens are supposed to oust our Tory MP here. It's just not going to happen and yet the noise about it is huge!

Or perhaps women actually care about their rights and want to discuss the current party approaches? Just a thought...

At this point it is a bit of a fuck you all protest vote I think. They will probably get two seats though.

Absolute paranoid rubbish. 😂

It didn’t reclaim any financial credence though. The debt grew worse. The banks were bailed out by Brown in 2008.

We're in N Wales, planning authority get people in the north west of England putting in objections to developments because they've been coming here on holiday for decades and don't want to see X changes 🙄

Four miles is no distance at all in a rural location!

Honestly. I can't be bothered to reply. We all know what happened. Most of us were there and remember the country running out of money as Labour were kicked out. My dh works for the BoE and I can tell you even the ATMs were very close to being shut down. There were contingencies to close all banks, to limit the run on money and the UK investors and creditors were running for the hills en masse.

YOU may try to erase this disaster, but most of us will never forget or forgive what Labour did to our country the last time they were in power, which is why it has taken 14 whole years to get to this point. No one trusted them. Sadly people have short memories.

So we will have to suffer again no doubt.

What is the definition of stupidity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Labour are, and will always be terrible with our economy and this time will be no different!

I’m in East Anglia, as I see a lot of other posters on this thread are. The two seats referenced in my OP are firstly North West Norfolk, this is predicted to go to Labour but I have done a lot of work in that constituency and I will be amazed if that happens. I think it will stay Tory….. The other is South West Norfolk, that’s a really interesting one because it’s Liz Truss’ seat. Yes, she was (is) awful but knowing that area I can’t see it going Labour. A friend that is at the count has told me that they are expecting double the amount of press/TV crews to cover that declaration!

I was there too, and I seem to recall this was something of a global problem.

Bearing in mind you don't think the Tories are at fault for their government response to problems they didn't cause, like covid and the Ukraine invasion, you're going to need to apply the same standards to Labour with the 08 financial disaster.

I can't apply the same to Labour with 2008 crisis because Brown himself admitted they spent too much, and much more should have done to protect Britain from an impending disaster of any kind. He was very honest about their mistakes at the time, and since then.

Given Starmer is no Blair and Rayner is definitely no Brown, we are in even deeper trouble this time around.

This would be a total cop out even if both Johnson and Sunak hadn't admitted to also making mistakes during the handling of covid. They both have though, so it washes even less as an excuse.

I think they both did an excellent job, thanks.

I’m not erasing it. I remember perfectly well what happened. I also remember who was PM in a global financial crisis and who bailed the banks out two years before the Tory government was elected. The national debt has risen steadily over the last 14 years, tax is higher than it’s been for 70 years and you’re still trying to gaslight us that the Tories are the party of fiscal responsibility. After Truss!

Yes boundary changes have resulted in our red since the beginning of time seat suddenly being marginal.....no canvassing from anyone.

This message basically summed up as, tell me you know nothing about economics or the World Financial crash of '08, without telling me.

What a lot of rot.

Either @Hummingbird75 doesn't understand or they're being wilfully disingenuous.

😂

Gaslighting is what she’s doing.

Bit of both more than likely.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic for the country.

Yes yes, Partygate was a particular highlight.

I always love it on here when someone decides to prove a point by telling us what their DH thinks.

Tbh, I find it interesting how much influence all the widespread Press / poll predictions of a huge Labour win could have on the way people vote :

1. Labour voters expect Labour to win whatever, so don't bother to turn out to vote
2. Tory/other party voters turn out in force to stop the predicted huge Labour majority and try to make the result a bit more balanced between the parties because they believe one Party having too much of a majority is a bad thing
3. Voters think it's pointless casting their vote if it's not for Labour because 'it won't make a difference' (personally, I've never understood this, because if all the non-voters turned out, it MAY make a difference?? You don't know till you try??)
4. People use tactical voting purely to try and stop the Tories getting back into power - so the vote is split among different Parties

It's a very interesting election - made more interesting because I don't feel that people are necessarily voting for a Party they believe in. They're just voting to 'get the Tories out' and hoping that the other Party politicians are telling the truth.............

Fingers are crossed for the next 5 years!!

There's definitely a lot of people who are voting anti Tory rather than pro whoever they're going for instead.

That’s what always happens when long standing governments are voted out. Hence the old adage that oppositions don’t win, governments lose.