Reform😱

[ForKeenDeer]

Gaining popularity by the minute. Scary times

@AutumnLeaves5 agreed. Net migration was at its highest ever in 2022 and 2023. Nearly 700k extra people arrived in the Uk in 2023. Our public services simply cannot take it, we don’t have the infrastructure. People on here are constantly complaining that they can’t get a GP appointment, that there are 6 hour waiting times in A&E, that teachers are overwhelmed by massive class sizes. But apparently the net migration numbers aren’t the cause, oh no. Anyone who says this is a racist.

This is all after Brexit, and under a Tory leadership. I’m not surprised people are won over by Reform.

I think you’re making a very good point, and it’s something I’ve noticed before in discussions like this.
There always seem to be the same arguments when it comes to immigrants arriving by boat.

People say that they’re all asylum seekers, and that they’re taking this route because they can’t claim asylum from outside the UK.

When asked why they won’t stay in France/ the EU, the answer is because they speak English and might have some family already living here.

When asked why they’re mostly young men, the answer is it’s because their families at home pooled all their finances and sent the youngest and strongest, since it’s a hard journey.

Ultimately, because of the irregular route they’ve taken they’re considered victims of human trafficking, so in need of asylum.

Then people say that their numbers are negligible anyway, compared to the number of legal immigrants, implying that nothing can/ should be done about it.

@CoatRack

Growth has been dismal since about 2007, but since 2010 per-capita real GDP has in fact increased, even the median (from £27k to £32k, after inflation). I don't know if people feel richer or not, though objectively the median person is. But I don't see a link between feeling better off and immigration. Purely anecdotally, I'd say the most optimistic national mood was under Blair, when he increased immigration substantially, as well as tightening up some controls eg on crime and asylum a bit.

I think the main reason growth has been weak since 2007 ish was the global financial crisis followed by austerity.

NHS and social care. What are your sources please? From the HoC Library I can find NHS 19% non-British workforce vs about 9% for the country overall.

As for net contribution to public finances: research typically finds a positive impact on public finances. Eg the Oxford Migration Observatory and the OBR (neither of which are especially lefty).

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/

What this obscures is that: I) there is a huge difference in the public finances effect of immigration from different countries (I've not seen this data for the UK but have for other European countries). While I value immigration for reasons beyond public finances, this is a legitimate subject of public debate and there's nothing nefarious about pushing for a bias to more-contributing migration vs less-contributing.

II) the massive one: life stage. Old people are very expensive. Immigration is not a Ponzi scheme because many migrants come here to work and pay taxes, then leave. This is another reason why the NHS/social care impact wouldn't cancel out to nil even if the proportions were the same as the population (which they are not).

Most immigrant visas state no recourse to public funds.

But economics is more than public finances: immigrants both buy and sell things in the UK. Provided noone is forced to trade, having a larger market makes people on average better off. Making sure that that benefit is fairly shared is important. But I'd rather we were dividing up a bigger pie than a smaller one.

Thought experiment: would (say) North East England be richer or poorer if noone were allowed to enter or leave it? I think poorer.

Beyond host-country economics, I also like immigration on other grounds: i) unleashing economic human potential by connecting talent with demand: transforming someone from a provincial accountant in their home country into a Google software engineer in Cambridge (at 20x the economic value) is a net gain for the UK and for humanity. ii) provided legitimate problems are adequately addressed, giving more people more choice on where they live is a win for liberty, which is a good thing all else equal. The US, for example, is better because its citizens can choose to live in any state. I'm not a border abolitionist, but freedom goes in the plus not minus column.

My whole village has been littered with signs for reform, we legit look like we're advertising them! Stupid fucking arrows, some of which look like they're pointing at my house!!

On my way back home today half of them had been pulled up cos they're ALL on public land

No they’re not. Those are just as hominem insults that are thrown because people don’t have the intelligence to enter the debate and up to now it’s worked.

but that’s over. You can’t simply shut someone up who wants to reduce I’m igrayion by calling them a racist, because it’s not true. It’s not about race.

What this obscures is that: I) there is a huge difference in the public finances effect of immigration from different countries (I've not seen this data for the UK but have for other European countries). While I value immigration for reasons beyond public finances, this is a legitimate subject of public debate and there's nothing nefarious about pushing for a bias to more-contributing migration vs less-contributing.

Agreed. The data made widely available to the UK public has always suggested a net economic benefit from immigration but the reality is much more nuanced. Some groups of migrants are net contributors and some are net recipients. Public debate about how much of each we can afford is necessary, particularly at the moment when things are so tight economically.

II) the massive one: life stage. Old people are very expensive. Immigration is not a Ponzi scheme because many migrants come here to work and pay taxes, then leave.

I appreciate I've cherry picked half of your point but we simply don't know how many people come to work and then leave. We do know that in the last 20 years net immigration has increased and our population size has steadily increased in a way that cannot be accounted for by an increased birth rate or dramatically increased life expectancy. People who meet qualifying criteria can also claim their UK state pension when they return to their home country, others will stay and make the UK their home.

I think it's also worth considering that many people who come here to work send money home. I've heard complaints about the expectation to send money home from several of my former colleagues, they say their families at home don't understand how expensive it's to live in the UK. We do not know how much money flows out of the UK in small remittances sent to family abroad.

What do Reform propose to do , leave the EU again? Immigration will continue, just not from Europe. They could propose to build more houses, fix infrastructure etc. But apart from Immigration, all I know about Farage is he wants to sell off the NHS.
Not a serious party. Just a private company supported by obsessed hobbyists who live on YouTube.

Actually, it's not.

You might or might not be a "racist" but if you waste a vote for Reform thinking that will change anything, you are certainly a fool.

It’s not going to be a wasted vote though.

The other two, frankly are history. Sir Karen might get 4 years, but after that he’s toast because if you think the country is crap now (and I’m not defending the tories) it’s gonna be turbo crap after 4 years of labour. Wait and see. There isn’t the slack in the system for anymore bullshit spending.

Reform Will do surprisingly well in the GE but won’t win, but they stand a very good shot in 4 years time.

Youll only have to wait a few weeks for a surprise, and the meltdowns will be epic.

I lived, worked and paid taxes in the UK for 30 years. Wasn't often in a position to send money to my nan who brought me up , alas. But I probably spent tens of thousands on holidays in Ireland when I could have spent much less in Spain and had guaranteed sun.

Is that OK with you?

Not sure why you are asking, did someone tell you my post was about you? It's not.

What you do with money you earn is none of my business.

I don't think for one minute anything will change or improve but can't vote Tory or Labour so more of a protest vote.

@FOJN

we simply don't know how many people come to work and then leave.

Yes, it's true that the data's bad. A crude reading of the attached though suggets about 40% return home (200k leave /420k arrive, annual average. The true % should be higher as immigration was rising during the period in question, once we consider the time lag).

It also varies a lot by country of origin, so it's within our policy control to a large extent (I wouldn't be Draconian about people coming here to retire, but I don't think it's a moral imperative to treat all immigration the same either). What I'd actually do is have more types of visa, some with very restrictive rights (e.g. no settlement) that are easier to get than the fuller versions, then let people freely choose what deal they want to apply for.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/permanent-or-temporary-how-long-do-migrants-stay-in-the-uk/

We do know that in the last 20 years net immigration has increased and our population size has steadily increased in a way that cannot be accounted for by an increased birth rate or dramatically increased life expectancy.

Yes, so in crude terms I think that's a good thing (shrinking or aging countries are not powerful ones, quite apart from the economics/freedom/humanitarian stuff that may or may not persuade you). I think housing shortage is a big problem, for which I mainly blame planning law and our voting system (property owners vote) not immigration. In other words, even absent any immigration, I'd favour much more housing, so to me it's the housing supply that's the problem not the immigration demand. For other public services: goes back to the public finances argument. We are better able to afford good public services with more immigration. We just haven't chosen to do so.

People who meet qualifying criteria can also claim their UK state pension when they return to their home country, others will stay and make the UK their home.

Yes, true. I'm happy so long as the numbers still work out favourably, which from all the data I've seen they do. Also, future retirees won't get anywhere near as good a deal as present ones, which is another reason it's not a Ponzi scheme even aside from headcount. Basically we have an state retirement offering at the moment that isn't fully covered by current retirees' past contributions, so we need to plug a gap.

I think it's also worth considering that many people who come here to work send money home.

With my humanitarian hat, this is a good thing. And with my UK economics hat, it's still a good thing even if this amount were 100% (because freely agreed trade is good for both sides, so the benefit has already happened. Yes, more would happen in the UK if that money were to stay here, but even if 100% of the immigrant's side of the deal doesn't stay (which is an unrealistic extreme) it would not negate the economic benefit.

The effect on labour competition is a harder one. Immigration is beneficial overall, but there are certainly localised harmful effects for some workers already here who get competed against, This is why I think immigration proponents need some humility --- not everyone will benefit, even though most will, and the average will. And it's rarely the people like me who are going to be the most dislocated. But, as before, bigger pie much better than smaller pie, when trying to come up with distributions under which everyone benefits.

Similar for culture: while I think all the arguments I've deployed until now have moral force, there's another one which is purely aesthetic, which is about preference for mono-culture or multi-culture. I can't see how either preference is morally better than the other, but way too often one is seen as good and the other bad. I like hearing lots of languages on the bus. That doesn't make me better or worse morally than someone who dislikes it.

(There are other cultural issues, but I'm pretty certain that you and I agree there are harmful and beneficial bits of culture, and we should try to limit the harmful imports. I do worry about this, but less than might seem intuitive as data, from the US, seems to show that the host culture changes the immigrant culture much more than vice versa. Sadly that means 'good' cultural imports get diluted, but so do bad ones. So, except for extreme examples, this isn't a huge worry for me).

They've overtaken the Tories in Wales. I'd be scared if I was a Labour MP in Wales right now never mind a Tory.

I’d be scared in wales!

Tbh there’s nobody fantastic to vote for. And that’s how the far right rise.

I won’t vote Labour or Conservative. They’re both awful. Conservatives have been clowns. Labour’s sums don’t add up. Money promised all over the place with vague/implausible notions of how it will be raised (non doms, private VAT etc - whilst promising not to raise taxes).

if I am to vote (I might, I didn’t last time) then it will be for Lib Dem or Reform. I’m uncomfortable voting far right - but as I said, this is how the far right rises - everyone else being shit.

They’re not far right though.

they’re just saying get immigration under control.

no one is gonna get shipped to Auschwitz

if I am to vote (I might, I didn’t last time) then it will be for Lib Dem or Reform. I’m uncomfortable voting far right - but as I said, this is how the far right rises - everyone else being shit.

"Far right"? Really, seriously? Not even close.

Thank you. They’re not far right at all.

GeneralPeter

Thanks for your considered response. These are the types of conversations we need to have.

What party is your current MP? Is it Tory?

The idea that Reform are 'far-right' is flippin ridiculous. I'm sick of the phrase 'far-right. It's absurdly overused. I don't blame people for voting Reform. I certainly will be. The political mainstream have made it quite clear that they're not going to do anything about mass immigration. Keir Starmer, for example, described himself as a YIMBY. I'd have had more respect for him if he'd just come out with it and said "listen you bunch of whingers. I don't care if you're concerned about immigration. We have no intention of reducing the numbers, so you'd better get used to it. And you'd better make the most of what's left of the countryside too, because after ten years under me, central and southern England will be one giant housing estate." I have met Labour activists who believe in open borders ffs!

The Conservatives are no better. To say they've failed is an understatement. In 2022, 750,000 extra people entered this country. If you add illegal immigrants, it was probably close to a million. There is only one word for that – insanity. Forget identity, multiculturalism, economic impact, etc. It's simply a question of space. To house that many people we'll need to build three new Manchesters. There are too many people jammed onto this little island, full stop. My local woods have been hacked down to make way for two giant new housing estates, and a second massive estate has been built at the other end of the village. On top of that, we've just heard that 800 new houses are going to be built on the road that runs from my village into town. That road is choked with traffic NOW. So what the hell is going to happen when another 1,000 cars are added into the mix?! It's just madness, and it can't go on. My quality of life has massively declined because of the sheer number of people. I've given up yoga, for example, because I can't face the queues after work. And most of my friends and family are now trapped in disgusting, overpriced rabbit hutches. One friend has to store her hoover at her mum's house because her own house is so small she's got nowhere to keep it. Developers are having a field day. They know they can build these tiny rat holes and jam them on top of one another because the demand is so high.

Some of us can actually think for ourselves. We don't mindlessly regurgitate liberal-left views on everything and then sit back and wait for the applause. Things that sound great in a sixth form common room create nothing but havoc in the real world.

@Brumhilda we've had a Welsh Labour Government for over 20 years so it will take a lot to scare us.

@Cooper77 800 homes is a significant amount of land. But that would house, what, 2500 people? That would barely cover the population increase of the UK until Tuesday morning. It's mental. Absolutely unsustainable. And yet still some people don't see the problem.