It's a private school one.....

[Noangelbuthavingfun]

Many threads on MN ... I want to know this: why haven't Labour given any info on their modelling of what will likely happen and the different scenarios that could play out when they impose VAT? It matters - because if they get thus wrong ... and a shed load of kids leave private because their families have scrimped to send them there ... the state sector in some councils will quickly be overwhelmed with kids needing state places that does not exist....which could be a lose lose for everyone! You don't build a new school and resource it in a month.... these things take years . I feel for all kids as they will all lose out if this happens and labour having got contingency in place.
How would you feel if your child is in a good state school , perhaps they get some SEND support...and suddenly there is an influx of private kids as they need the spaces. Class sizes go up to 40, all SEND provision gets cut as not enough funds, extra curricular gets cut and teachers are even more stressed, so the vicious circle if teacher shortages now intensifies....the spiral continues for years to come. Who has won?? No one ....
What are your thoughts on this ?
I don't disagree with the principle that private is a luxury and probably should pay VAT... what I disagree with is the notion you can just implement something that will fundamentally shift things on a seismic way in one big bang. No thought whatsoever. Tell me if you agree or have a different view and why ?

@Persimonne72 ,

The whole 10-20% aren’t going to move house and get a bigger mortgage! Maybe a tiny fraction.

This argument does kind of defeat your previous point about these parents not just having £100k in the bank. In the areas you are talking about in London, they will be paying close to that in stamp duty! It is the Schrödinger 100k….it only exists to buy a house, not to cushion the VAT increase.

@Persimonne72

Prices are not through the roof suddenly, they have been high for a long time, this point:

" addressed in the previous post) who will not be able to afford private education but they will decide on getting a higher mortgage in a location where there are excellent comprehensive and grammars. It will be a further havoc on the property market with some areas highly overpriced."

Is drivel. As said, those who privately educate their children already live in the areas that have the best catchments as they already live in the highest priced areas in the towns/cities that they live in.

What you're doing is making veiled threats, it won't work.

"Vunerable means " at risk" " exposed" to the change of school from private to state"

The vast majority( like 99.99%) will not be vulnerable or at risk. This is not what vulnerable means in an education context. It was an appeal to emotion: " Won't somebody, please think of the children".

"I am absolutely certain that I will not pay the mentioned tax"

Then don't. But you will be one of a tiny number who are not going to do so, that's economics for you.

@Newbutoldfather

It's the private school parent threat: " Give us what we want or we will stop average kids getting into good schools by driving up house prices."

They don't get it that we know they already live in those areas.

Although strangely on MN all the local schools to private school parents are sink schools where murders happen on a daily basis. I mean who are all these people with 90k to spend on 6 years of secondary education for one child and who live in down and out areas?

data please. Link to data.

Then don't. But you will be one of a tiny number who are not going to do so, that's economics for you.

unfounded nonsense based on false assumptions

It's the private school parent threat: " Give us what we want or we will stop average kids getting into good schools by driving up house prices."

another nonsense based on false assumptions

1. my child is not going to private school but state Catholic. I have never had any intention to send him private as I know what are the private schools disadvantages ( not related to fees and taxes)
2. I am not a Tory voter but LibDem from a very LibDem constituency
3. I have an open mind and realise how much mess will that 20 % tax make as I talk to parents who already decided against private for that reason

Look at the data, its there to be seen!

Fees have gone up at least 4-5 % on average every year for over a decade ( there was a pause during covid), numbers are up, whilst the % is down.

How many left the system over this time, well according to the data very few.

"unfounded nonsense based on false assumptions"

The fact that your google mash presented that piece of data that you used to back your point and you then post this? Shows you up.

I think we know there isn’t any.

It’s a lot of fact-less grandstanding.

Don’t let the facts get into the way of @Aladdinzane assumptions!

@Aladdinzane
Look at the data, its there to be seen!

yes, I will look if you provide that data. And don't miss the growth in foreign pupils by 6% that counterbalances the departing pupils from the private sector

The fact that your google mash presented that piece of data that you used to back your point and you then post this? Shows you up.

I think I will stop talking to you. You make baseless assumptions about posters and not support anything with data and links

“This argument does kind of defeat your previous point about these parents not just having £100k in the bank. In the areas you are talking about in London, they will be paying close to that in stamp duty! It is the Schrödinger 100k….it only exists to buy a house, not to cushion the VAT increase.”

You can’t have it both ways.
If private school parents are rich clever fuckers, then they will of course decide that it makes more sense financially to move into catchment or send their DCs there now after all if already in catchment. Especially because said catchment can become completely elitist now. And it will be a win win house price rise because the Government (of whatever flavour) fails to tax main residence because they want everyone to feel rich on paper and spend spend spend to keep the economy going. And nobody is going to be taxing the great British home any time soon. So just get tutors/educational websites on the side like the rest of us.

Nobody is disputing that the top elite schools in London and Home Counties will be absolutely fine and that the real 1 per cent elite will sigh a big sigh of relief because you no longer have to get a tutor to get into Eton or St Paul’s because the more middle class lot will be out.

@Aladdinzane ,

Over the years, there has been a vast shift in the demographics from the traditional middle classes to the international wealthy.

When I looked in ISAMS at parents’ professions (they are listed), it was a very narrow band, an amazing number in either finance or law (maybe 50% of the total).

But they are not altruistic institutions (although some heads do their best), they are fundamentally businesses and will fill the classrooms with whomever can pay (and pass the entrance test, although that can be a variable feast).

For most academic schools, the leavers can easily be replaced by just slightly lowering the CAT test entrance requirements.

What is a bit galling is how few parents cared about this demographic shift as long as they could afford it. I think that, for some parents, their child’s school is a status symbol and the pricier it is, the more of a status symbol of their success.

And this is the point: all this tax really does is entrench elitism. The more private schools cost, the less accessible they are for people who are not super wealthy, they become bastions of privilege.

For most academic schools, the leavers can easily be replaced by just slightly lowering the CAT test entrance requirements

Lowering the 11+ exams threshold would only make sense in theory with super selective schools as only these schools have more applicants than places.. And those super selective schools even don't need to lower anything They will not be affected in any significant way.

Most of the non-super selective private schools though are rejecting hardly any pupils and the 11+ exam is only there as they want to increase the pupils' ability prior to starting work

Over the years, there has been a vast shift in the demographics from the traditional middle classes to the international wealthy.

Yep. And this shift will continue. Private schools are becoming, and this tax will only exacerbate the trend, the preserve of the super rich.

But they are not altruistic institutions (although some heads do their best), they are fundamentally businesses and will fill the classrooms with whomever can pay (and pass the entrance test, although that can be a variable feast).
I agree with the notion that private school is simply a business but also you make a mistake as you assume here that all private schools have more applicants than places. And that is only happening with super selective schools. Most private schools have fewer candidates than they can absorb

@Persimonne72

https://www.civitas.org.uk/2023/02/24/private-schooling-in-britain-a-snapshot/

Numbers are higher than they were a decade ago, up by 8% ( and this means that it has increased even more than the 6% of international school students with very few drop outs).

Fees are up, numbers are up, very few drop outs.

The fact that you provided a link which went against your point is just funny.

@Newbutoldfather

I think the wailing and gnashing of teeth is hilarious to be fair.

This tax change is comparable with the removal of tax relief on mortgage interest which was a tax break for the middle classes. This has been a tax break for the highest earners and wealthiest in the country for too long.

And no, the altruism and caring for the most vulnerable didn't seem to be around when fees were going up 4-5% every year, mainly cause the vast majority of parents were able to find the money.

Just like they will now.

I think the wailing and gnashing of teeth is hilarious to be fair.

And where is this happening other than in your head?

@Persimonne72 ,

‘I agree with the notion that private school is simply a business but also you make a mistake as you assume here that all private schools have more applicants than places. And that is only happening with super selective schools. Most private schools have fewer candidates than they can absorb’

But then they aren’t successful schools and should fail.

I just don’t really understand the argument that private schools are a good thing and should be selective on income, but if 5% rather than 7% can afford them, it is a tragedy. I just don’t agree. I personally think (and I started another thread in it) that they should consider what they are there for, dial down the bells and whistles a bit and become more accessible to the middle classes. But, on that thread, many disagreed saying they wanted to pay for the bells and whistles.

I do think (and have stated previously) that current pupils should be somewhat shielded both by bringing the VAT in gradually and schools assisting genuine cases of need.

I provided data with 6% consisting of international students from 2020. You are comparing it with data of 2023/2024. It can easily be way above 8% now when it comes to foreign students.

Boarding schools are full of foreign kids. The article you linked are also stating the increase of the foreign kids. They drive the curve up

Schools are closing and not opening new. Even K Starmer acknowledged it claiming that it is not because of his VAT idea. Well, it has not been introduced but I am a mum of y7 child and I know how many parents were talking about private in y7 and how many actually decided upon it. Hardly any parent.

“Over the years, there has been a vast shift in the demographics from the traditional middle classes to the international wealthy.”

You do realise this is now becoming quite racist?

No surprise really from the white men of the Labour Party is it really. Ableist towards those with SEN in the private sector, class war fare and throw in a bit of racism too. How dare those Indians and Chinese come here and send their kids to elite schools in London and pay taxes on top of it?!

"Nobody is disputing that the top elite schools in London and Home Counties will be absolutely fine and that the real 1 per cent elite will sigh a big sigh of relief because you no longer have to get a tutor to get into Eton or St Paul’s because the more middle class lot will be out."

St Paul's fees are 32k a year, Eton is 46k, the "more middle class lot" never sent their children there in the first place.

On catchment areas, yes Private school parents will already live in the catchment areas for the best schools, because if you have 90k to spend on 6 years of secondary education for one child, you will already be living in the most in demand areas of the town/city.

Will they cause catchments to become more elitist? No because private school students tend to come from further away than just the local catchment, so they will be spread out among the catchments for a range of good schools.

There will be no flood of parents leaving, 3% maybe from secondary, more from primary, but these are tiny numbers spread across the country.

:) Keep it up with the threatening normal kids though, it really undermines your points.

@Persimonne72 isn’t making that argument though.

You can’t have it both ways: either private schools should become more accessible or more elite.

"Boarding schools are full of foreign kids. The article you linked are also stating the increase of the foreign kids. They drive the curve up"

Boarding schools make up such a small number of private schools ( 19 % or so) that those figures will have relatively small impacts on overall school population figures.

You asked for data, you got it, it is properly researched data from a respected institution, unlike the data you linked to which wasn't even a proper survey and has been majorly questioned.

@Araminta1003

"You do realise this is now becoming quite racist?"

It really wasn't, nice attempt with the deflection though.