It's a private school one.....

[Noangelbuthavingfun]

Many threads on MN ... I want to know this: why haven't Labour given any info on their modelling of what will likely happen and the different scenarios that could play out when they impose VAT? It matters - because if they get thus wrong ... and a shed load of kids leave private because their families have scrimped to send them there ... the state sector in some councils will quickly be overwhelmed with kids needing state places that does not exist....which could be a lose lose for everyone! You don't build a new school and resource it in a month.... these things take years . I feel for all kids as they will all lose out if this happens and labour having got contingency in place.
How would you feel if your child is in a good state school , perhaps they get some SEND support...and suddenly there is an influx of private kids as they need the spaces. Class sizes go up to 40, all SEND provision gets cut as not enough funds, extra curricular gets cut and teachers are even more stressed, so the vicious circle if teacher shortages now intensifies....the spiral continues for years to come. Who has won?? No one ....
What are your thoughts on this ?
I don't disagree with the principle that private is a luxury and probably should pay VAT... what I disagree with is the notion you can just implement something that will fundamentally shift things on a seismic way in one big bang. No thought whatsoever. Tell me if you agree or have a different view and why ?

@HooverIsAlwaysBroken not bollocks in our experince. Scratty comp in the SW. Lots of excellent brass players due to the proliferation of brass bands. School runs with this and out come great brass players. DD was grade 8 by year 8 and not alone. Offered scholarship at school 17 miles away. Didn't take it. Got full sweep of great results anyway. Boom.
Others did take the 10 or 15 per cent though. So generous! Wells Cathedral School is likewise well known for poaching musical talent from our school and others. Another one - my niece went from a comp to a small private school in Somerset on a music scholarship for 6th form. Bitterly regrets it because she was metaphorically flogged for her talent and had a terrible 6th form experience, parachuted in as she was. Parents were flattered though.

Private schools are not going to be badly effected.

The private schools are already badly affected by the slowing down economy and geopolitical situation that drived foreign pupils back. Some schools merge with another schools to survive. Some such as school in Norfolk, Alton, Dorking, Reading and many many others

The same applies to private universities.

I think some schools will be badly affected, but the majority won’t.

Is that a tragedy? I don’t think so. The reality is that private schools are a part of the private sector and, if they are not good enough, or fail to make their numbers work, they will fail. I do think that the increase should be phased in by BOTH the government and schools, who can certainly absorb some of the costs for the first few years. I hope the schools will extend reduced fee offers to existing pupils in key years (6, 10,11 and 12) on a means tested basis (both income and capital).

But there is so much disingenuity on these threads from private school parents. The vast majority will have to defer their early retirement for a few years, withdraw an extra 50-100k from savings, or forego the odd skiing holiday (you can’t ski anywhere in school hols for less than the cost of the VAT increase for a couple of children). Of course, the whingers don’t say this, as they would get their arses handed to them.

I think the private school system is here and serves its customers well, as does private healthcare. But, as with both of them, if you accept that others don’t gain the advantage that you can afford to pay for, you have to accept that others may be able to pay for it when you can’t. That is capitalism…

Yes, just like other businesses, they will find a way. Merging. Cutting back on luxuries. Until the good times come again when they can regroup and expand. And that's what Labour needs to do - jolly well make sure they use the money wisely so that fewer people feel the need to go private

@Newbutoldfather you are assuming that everybody who sends a child to private school is very well off. The VAT will affect those who are on the border. Those who hesitated if they can afford private, they decided in the end to send a child to private school. They may need to pull out the child and put in state school because with the raising cost of living and additional 20 percent they will not be able afford it anymore. No, they don't have savings of 50-100k. I know several middle class families like that.

They didn't. The few listed by me schools shut down and not found a way or merged. And those are only few of dozens of schools that closed after e.g. 143 years

@Persimonne72 ,

As I said, of course a few will have to change schools. Do you think that doesn’t happen EVERY SINGLE YEAR?

Businesses run into trouble, parents divorce, many on the margin are finally pushed over the edge by the normal inflation-busting fee rises. So pupils say goodbye to their friends and sometimes teachers, and quietly disappear. Some of the brighter ones with good uni prospects are allowed to stay on for the last year or two on full bursaries. That is just private school life.

Again, I posted the research upthread, the vast majority of private school parents are wealthy and, if anything is sacrificed, it might be holidays or domestic staff (cleaners and gardeners, not butlers and chauffeurs….).

@Newbutoldfather It has never been happening to this extent as it is happening now. And 20 percent increase in fees will drive even more closures. Some schools that have been operating for 160, and 140 years are closing now.
And the VAT has not been introduced yet.
I wonder why you have not noticed that the rising cost of living affects school affordability. Do you read any news? We are at the brink of recession again. Or we are in a recession that is not openly spoken about until elections. Why do you think Sunak organises elections 1 year before it was due? Because in May next year, they would lose more seats than today before the market depression is revealed. They know they will not win but they want as many seats as they can.

>the vast majority of private school parents are wealthy

no. The Army pays for private schools, expats have the schools paid by the corporations, there are people who can afford it "just". There are parents who cannot afford it but grandparents pay. Most of the parents are not wealthy. And even if 20 percent will not be able to afford private anymore it is 110,000 kids that will need to find a space in state schools that are already oversubscribed in many places.
The prospect of 20% VAT already discouraged parents of prospective applicants to year 7. They went to state schools. That is why in my area despite the decline in the birth rate the catchments have not changed and unlike in the previous years there is hardly any movement on the waiting list to state schools. Simply, not that many went to private schools

@Persimonne72 ,

I once again refer you to my link upthread regarding the distribution of income of private school parents. This is not anecdote, but real data.

In addition, bar last year, the number of pupils in the private sector has been rising.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1447867/uk-private-school-pupils/

And why is this. Because the cost of living crisis hasn’t really affected the top 5%, which, to again repeat rather tiresomely, is where the vast majority of private school parents are from.

And , again, citing data as opposed to anecdote, around 5% of the VAT can be reclaimed plus various building expenses.

Schools have known about this for years and have been building funds for it. Have a look at how much fees have gone up and how much teachers salaries have increased. A chunk of this has gone into preparing for the VAT rise. again, fact, not anecdote.

You can’t just cite random self-serving anecdote to make a convincing argument.

@Persimonne72

20% would assume a unitary PED, it won't be anything near that high.

I'd think at best 3% of secondary school and up to 6 percent of primary. That will be it.

The vast, vast majority of private school households can afford this increase with a few small changes to discretionary spending

@Newbutoldfather

They keep getting confused about the % of children in private school falling and the actual numbers rising.

But nooo, it's going to be a disaster.

In fact it will boost the school's budget by 2.5 %

Great :)

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/02/independent_schools_misleading_vat/

And here is a fascinating report on how the ISC is trying to scaremonger.

It does seem the much cited IFS report is the only rigorous research on the impact of this and at least admits to the uncertainty around it.

@Newbutoldfather

You assume that every pupil at a private school comes from a wealthy British family.

There was a 6% of increase of foreign pupils in UK an look that the bar graph you presented hardly moved. So there must be a 6% decrease in British pupils at least. This will be impacted further if there is some unfavourable geopolitical development with China over Taiwan as the majority of foreign pupils come from China.

I already mentioned to you that at least here around London many private school spaces are paid by the army and by corporations. People who normally would not afford it.

Here where are live are the best comprehensive schools in the country with the best GCSE attainment, progress 8. The prices of houses are going up the roof because so many people want to live in the catchment for those schools. Because of uncertainties, and increasing private school prices people decide on larger mortgages and excellent comprehensive rather than private schools. I spoke with dozens of parents who moved for that purpose,
We have also super-selective state schools here that bring in coaches kids from far away as the schools hardly serve the local community - only a small percentage of local kids go there. Why to bother if local comprehensive have also good results?!.

And at last, nobody is talking here about some sort of exodus from private schools of every kid. But we are talking about the most vulnerable 10 -20 percent.

@Aladdinzane ,

It sounds like you know the sector well, as do I, having spent a chunk of my career working in it.

@Newbutoldfather I spent a good amount of time teaching and then in management/finance of private education.

Some parents really do not have a clue.

We had requests for financial aid during the economic crisis of '08 because some people's incomes were now below 500k ( this happened more than once or twice).

What happened to you @Newbutoldfather ? Did the evil St Paul’s sack you? Did you make it into teaching in the state sector yourself?

@Araminta1003 ,

I liked teaching in the private sector and left voluntarily. Both my schools have asked me back, thanks.

I have also been a governor of a state primary, as many second career (relatively wealthy) teachers are to try and give something back to the community. The difference in the challenges faced by both sectors is eye watering.

I don’t have any problem with private schools. If you can afford them, they are in many ways a great option. But if you can’t, you join 93% of the population, you are not put upon.

As a PP said, it is really the politics of envy to resent those (the vast majority) who have no problems with paying the VAT, and some who actually support it.

" The prices of houses are going up the roof because so many people want to live in the catchment for those schools."

@Persimonne72 The house prices in these areas are through the roof anyway and it isn't anything to do with private school children's parents.

In fact this oft stated point on mumsnet is always funny, private school parents already live in the most desirable areas in town that have great state school catchments.

Your point about the vulnerable is just an appeal to emotion.

You'll pay the tax, as will 97% of other parents.

No, Aladdinzane. There were estimates done already by professionals. Some claimed 45% and the lowest number was 7 %. That last number was challenged as the poll was not varied enough.

You will find more here

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/experts-reject-claim-labour-private-school-tax-224k-more-state-pupils-3088681

@Persimonne72 ,

please don’t use the word vulnerable, referring to those who may not be able to afford the VAT rise.

In the context of the state school sector, vulnerable students are those with cold houses and who go hungry.

@Persimonne72

Hahah a google mash to find an article that supports your point, that you haven't read because it dismisses the claims of the half of parents leaving and badly questions the data of the higher level.

I'm telling you, look at the data of how many parents leave when the fees go up every year. Then you'll get an idea.

PED for private education is highly inelastic, it will be about 3 % of secondary schools, and 6 % in primary.

This was too easy to dismiss.

The house prices in these areas are through the roof anyway and it isn't anything to do with private school children's parents.

Of course, it is. We are talking about 10-20 percent of parents ( this percentage figure is debatable and I addressed in the previous post) who will not be able to afford private education but they will decide on getting a higher mortgage in a location where there are excellent comprehensive and grammars. It will be a further havoc on the property market with some areas highly overpriced.

Your point about the vulnerable is just an appeal to emotion.

No, the word vulnerable has nothing to do with emotion in this context. Vunerable means " at risk" " exposed" to the change of school from private to state

You'll pay the tax, as will 97% of other parents.
I am absolutely certain that I will not pay the mentioned tax.

Affected. You clearly have not read my posts as I haven’t said private schools will be badly affected. Nor have I whinged unlike you who has whined very inaccurately for pages. You seem to be inventing your own argument. We don’t know yet how the private and state sector will fare as the numbers are as yet unknown.

I'm telling you, look at the data of how many parents leave when the fees go up every year. Then you'll get an idea.

Please provide me with the links. I am keen to explore it @Aladdinzane A lot of what you say comes unsupported
The trend is not mainly in the number who leave but no of those who will not apply at y7 point

exactly. And he/she cannot provide any evidence in data