Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

[hangerba]

That’s it really…

Nothing is ever guaranteed with politics. It does seem that the Conservatives have given up though evidenced by how many are stepping down. Also, Sunak wants to move to America, so has probably set the date sooner than expected so that he can crack on with his move.

I think realistically the biggest question is if they will win by enough to form a majority government. I think that is unlikely but I do think they will have the most seats.

I think they will get in with a large majority, though the polls will tighten. Tactical voting will play a part, and with their policies the Tories have increased political engagement among younger voters - they are ANGRY. I'm not sure it will be a 1997 style landslide, but equally I wouldn't rule that out either.

I live in Suffolk, which is very Tory indeed, and people here are angry too. Some will not vote, some will vote Reform and split the Conservative vote. Some will remain loyal.

Recent polling shows that the Tories have now even lost their lead among voters over 70.

A party called None of the Above would probably win if it existed.

There is, sort of. Spoilt papers are counted and are as close as we have to the good old Brewster's "none of the above".

@Sirzy what will it mean if they are not a majority government? Will they be able to put all their policies in place?

They will have to try and form a coalition in the way that the Conservatives did with the Liberal Democrats a few years ago.

As a Labour party member, I really don't take this election for granted, and I think I speak for the majority of Labour members.

When May went to.the electorate she had a 20% lead, it fell to 2% by voting day.

I said to my daughter, I'll start (but only "start") to believe Labour will win if (a big if) the exit polls echo the polls currently showing a Labour lead.

ask me again at about 3:00 am on 5/7.

Well going by the fury I’ve seen towards Labour on social media in my area it seems inevitable that there will be a Tory win.
Then when taking the children to their grandparents, there seems to be a heavy reform vote.
Near the other grandparents there’s a leading to LibDems.
I don’t think anything’s a foregone conclusion!

Nothing is guaranteed in politics.

The polls are currently predicting a strong Labour win. There is still a month to go however. If I were partial to betting I would put my money on a Labour govt but, as the saying goes, it's not over til the fat lady sings.

One of the dangers is that if the polls remain as they are, lots of Labour voters will assume it's a forgone conclusion and won't vote. Not dissimilar to what happened in the Brexit vote. There's absolutely no room for complacency.

The thing is there is always time for a politician or party to completely fuck up - all Starmer needs to do is maintain, but look at what happened in the fields of wheat election 😀 you just never know!

The conservatives have won from underdog status before. Maybe not this much but they know how to win elections. I'm hoping Scotland leaning back towards labour and people's disgust as some of the cabinet behaviour since 2020 is a shifting factor but who knows. Plus reform may split some of the tory vote. I do think labour has its flaws and is trying to hoover up all pockets of voters whose beliefs may contradict each other could still be their undoing.

I don't think we will ever really see the true feelings of an entire nation until mandatory voting is law, I can't see that ever happening. I think they have it in Australia, but I'm not sure.

People voting against the Tories will see Labour win I think, but I dont think it'll be the hive landslide they think will be.

The most interesting poll results to me ATM is the Reform vote. They've over taken Lib Dems and others according to the Sky Poll I saw.

In general their campaigning machine is insane. Love them or hate them (and most people on here hate them), the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive. It’s actually v interesting to read about how they won.

the issue is that Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring, he’s a bit wet and slimy, and people don’t like how excessively wealthy and awkward he is.

Starmer is also essentially just a joint of gammon with nothing to him, but he benefits from just not being a Tory.

I am genuinely surprised at how many people are polling that they will vote for reform, and I wonder if these are protest poll votes which on the day will revert back as people panic about labour getting in.

Yes! I’ve just finished my post saying the same!

No

If it is a wet day in the parts of the country Labour need to gain seats to get a majority, if people think it is a forgone conclusion, then it might not happen. Opinion polls also tend to underestimate Tory votes and have done for many elections, perhaps 2017 apart.

No.

You can never guarantee what will happen in an election.

The polls give an idea but there is always the possibility of something extraordinary happening.

Polls can also be wrong, as in the 1992 election. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinionpollinggforthee1992UniteddKingdomgenerallelection

@HappiestSleeping will that mean labour will get all its polices through or will some be stopped?

No, nothing is guaranteed.

Hopefully not 🤞🏻 looking at the polls I suspect a hung parliament

the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive.

It was? I must have been out that day.

Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring

DC inspiring? 🤣 I'll give you BJ being charismatic, but also a proven liar and a complete clown.

Starmer is also not Corbyn which can only be beneficial.

Yes in Australia it’s mandatory to vote, but it’s only a smallish fine.

5 weeks is a long time in politics.