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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

183 replies

hangerba · 29/05/2024 20:30

That’s it really…

OP posts:
MigGirl · 29/05/2024 23:30

TuesdayWhistler · 29/05/2024 20:53

I don't think we will ever really see the true feelings of an entire nation until mandatory voting is law, I can't see that ever happening. I think they have it in Australia, but I'm not sure.

People voting against the Tories will see Labour win I think, but I dont think it'll be the hive landslide they think will be.

The most interesting poll results to me ATM is the Reform vote. They've over taken Lib Dems and others according to the Sky Poll I saw.

Yes they do have mandatory voting in Australia and I wish we had it here. But they do have the option of non of the above as well sonyou can literally vote for no-one. But it should be compulsory to turn out I think.

silverneedle · 29/05/2024 23:31

LaPalmaLlama · 29/05/2024 23:27

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott. Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for? It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!

I am certainly one who is uncomfortable with how ruthless Starmer has been to those more on the left in his party but will still vote Labour as appalled at idea of another Conservative govt.

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:35

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott.

I hope so.

Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for?

It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!

It's savvy re DA but they should have done it sooner. AR just needs a Malcolm Tucker type in her tail, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet.

It's frustrating watching Starmer fudge everything. I remember being a big fan of his Guardian column 20+ years ago as an undergrad. He was so incisive and efficient then.

mrlistersgelfbride · 29/05/2024 23:36

Nope. I was having this conversation with partner tonight.
I don't think they'll win a majority government.
He said the polls have never been so much in labours favour.
I said the polls don't take into account the older generation who don't use the internet and all the oldies who will out to vote Tory if it's the only thing they do all year?! (disclaimer: I know not all older people vote Tory 😆).
It's partners birthday 2 days before and he thinks his birthday present is going to be labour getting in.
I think he's going to be sorely disappointed, I hope I'm wrong!
I genuinely don't think I'll see a labour majority in my lifetime. People are too thick, scared and selfish and believe the right wing media. There are closet Tories everywhere.
Btw I'm 39 and very left.

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:37

Going into the Autumn Statement and the winter months is a terrible time for the Tories to seek an uplift in votes though. COL is higher, the NHS is entering its annual crisis mode and less people in older demographics vote in winter.

Yes I can see that re voting turnout and hefty dual fuel bills, but I'm still surprised Rishi grasped the nettle while the polls are so dire. It's not like a Tory PM to be clear eyed and pragmatic enough to think "well the polls will only get worse".

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm antsy.

LittleRedHen77 · 29/05/2024 23:37

hangerba · 29/05/2024 21:08

@SherbetDips but what will that mean? Will it mean labour will get their policies through still?

Is this another school fees thread

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:40

HappiestSleeping · 29/05/2024 20:33

Nothing is ever guaranteed with politics. It does seem that the Conservatives have given up though evidenced by how many are stepping down. Also, Sunak wants to move to America, so has probably set the date sooner than expected so that he can crack on with his move.

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:41

LittleRedHen77 · 29/05/2024 23:37

Is this another school fees thread

Not yet but give it time.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:42

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:40

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

No, he’s denying it. Which means he’s booked the flights.

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:43

mrlistersgelfbride · 29/05/2024 23:36

Nope. I was having this conversation with partner tonight.
I don't think they'll win a majority government.
He said the polls have never been so much in labours favour.
I said the polls don't take into account the older generation who don't use the internet and all the oldies who will out to vote Tory if it's the only thing they do all year?! (disclaimer: I know not all older people vote Tory 😆).
It's partners birthday 2 days before and he thinks his birthday present is going to be labour getting in.
I think he's going to be sorely disappointed, I hope I'm wrong!
I genuinely don't think I'll see a labour majority in my lifetime. People are too thick, scared and selfish and believe the right wing media. There are closet Tories everywhere.
Btw I'm 39 and very left.

After the 2015 polling fiasco they are conducted with much better quality now though.

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:44

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

He and his wife have been keeping their green cards warm. The broadsheets reported on it. Presumably they have a use for green cards or they would not bother.

So PP might be right on that.

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:48

SherbetDips · 29/05/2024 21:07

Yes in Australia it’s mandatory to vote, but it’s only a smallish fine.

Strictly speaking it's mandatory to get your name crossed off the list. Once that's done you can vote, or not, as you please. I have been spoiling my ballot for years. Fortunately we also have preferential voting, so there's a bit more incentive when both Liberal and Labor are rubbish.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:48

The polls aren’t conducted online and Labour’s 7 points ahead of the Tories in the over 65 age group.

mrlistersgelfbride · 29/05/2024 23:51

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:48

The polls aren’t conducted online and Labour’s 7 points ahead of the Tories in the over 65 age group.

That's more reassuring although 7 points isn't that much.

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:56

MigGirl · 29/05/2024 23:30

Yes they do have mandatory voting in Australia and I wish we had it here. But they do have the option of non of the above as well sonyou can literally vote for no-one. But it should be compulsory to turn out I think.

Sadly no, we don't have "none of the above" as an option. Wish we did!

Livelovebehappy · 29/05/2024 23:56

amijustbeingsuspicious · 29/05/2024 20:55

In general their campaigning machine is insane. Love them or hate them (and most people on here hate them), the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive. It’s actually v interesting to read about how they won.

the issue is that Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring, he’s a bit wet and slimy, and people don’t like how excessively wealthy and awkward he is.

Starmer is also essentially just a joint of gammon with nothing to him, but he benefits from just not being a Tory.

I am genuinely surprised at how many people are polling that they will vote for reform, and I wonder if these are protest poll votes which on the day will revert back as people panic about labour getting in.

There’s a lot of disenchanted Tory voters turning to Reform. You have to realise too that a lot of true blue Tory voters, might be turning away from them, but would rather stick pins in their eyes than vote Labour. So Reform will be their go to party. This will mean that the Tory vote will be split, but it will also stop their votes going to Labour, so Labour might not get the landslide they’re hoping for. Labour are going to have to navigate a lot of potential issues in the lead up to the GE ie, if there are divisions forming between the far left MPs and Starmer, it’s going to make the ‘not yet decided’ voters feel nervous, and they’ll back off. The Abbott situation is doing the party no favours.

alwayscrashinginthesamecar1 · 29/05/2024 23:59

AnneLovesGilbert · 29/05/2024 21:08

And you get a free hot dog when you vote. That’s got to help.

AKA the Democracy Sausage. There is even a website with a clickable map showing which polling booths have them, along with other offerings like bake sales. Sadly they aren't usually free though.

Democracy Sausage

A real-time crowd-sourced map of sausage and cake availability at Australian elections. It's practically part of the Australian Constitution. Or something. #demsausage

https://democracysausage.org/

NewName24 · 29/05/2024 23:59

mynameiscalypso · 29/05/2024 20:48

One of the dangers is that if the polls remain as they are, lots of Labour voters will assume it's a forgone conclusion and won't vote. Not dissimilar to what happened in the Brexit vote. There's absolutely no room for complacency.

This is my concern too.

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:59

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:42

No, he’s denying it. Which means he’s booked the flights.

😂So it is just a MN rumour after all !!

TheCookieCrumblesThisWay · 30/05/2024 00:00

Nothing is guaranteed and people should not be complacent

Nopetynope · 30/05/2024 00:01

The tories will be obliterated! My children who all come from a MC background absolutely hate the Tories . They hate the racism and Brexit finished them off.
Two children are not now at home and have applied for postal votes!!

RandomButtons · 30/05/2024 00:03

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:25

That might be because we’ve yet to see the manifesto. The TV debate next Tuesday will be entertaining.

Indeed.

RandomButtons · 30/05/2024 00:05

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:59

😂So it is just a MN rumour after all !!

It made it onto HIGNFY so not just mumsnet

HappiestSleeping · 30/05/2024 03:34

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:44

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

He and his wife have been keeping their green cards warm. The broadsheets reported on it. Presumably they have a use for green cards or they would not bother.

So PP might be right on that.

This 👆 @BloodyHellKenAgain @BIossomtoes

It's been widely reported in the broadsheets, and private eye.

AutumnCrow · 30/05/2024 03:51

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:48

Strictly speaking it's mandatory to get your name crossed off the list. Once that's done you can vote, or not, as you please. I have been spoiling my ballot for years. Fortunately we also have preferential voting, so there's a bit more incentive when both Liberal and Labor are rubbish.

Do you have postal voting?