Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

[hangerba]

That’s it really…

Just because there was a winner doesn't mean the campaigning was especially good.

Never say never.

The trouble is, the further right the right go, the further right the left have to go to capture the disenfranchised middle voters that the right piss off by going further right. And they have to do it without pissing off the left voters in the process.

JC was always unelectable. He's the best thing that ever happened to the Conservative party. The amount of young people who started talking politics was incredible though, and I have to concede that this is a good thing.

There is quite a lot of research and writing on the campaign machine behind these elections and it just is impressive. In some cases the competition was actually quite strong, eg Jeremy Corbyn did seem he would do far better than he did. Boris winning seats in red wall areas which had never voted Tory was a testament to the campaign.

it’s fine we can agree to disagree but there are a couple of very interesting books on this topic.

Remember the Sheffield Victory Rally - still, it would take something seismic for Labour not to be the largest party and, I suspect, to have a majority.

I shall have a look, it is interesting. I recall reading am article by the guy who did labour campaigns when Milliband was in the chair and he asked whether any of the shadow cabinet had ongoing relationships with anyone from the demographic they were supposed to represent. Not a one of them did.

I don't doubt that there is more science / effort than I give credit to, however I lost interest in the campaigns when they started with the chicken / headless chicken suits. 1997 I think. It has all been downhill from there really.

So to answer your question- what you really want to know is will Labour turn their policies into reality.

So in order to make their policies reality some things need to happen.

They need to either win the election outright or do well enough that with another party they can govern.

If they need another party to govern because they didn't win outright then usually the negotiations are around which policies will be kept and which won't.

So in that case they are unlikely to be able to make all their policies reality.

If they win outright, then they have to decide which ones are most important. Some policies will be simple to implement while others might need a change in the law.

If a policy needs a change in the law then they have to go through the process of doing that which involves the House of Commons and is slow.

A government once it has won an election will look at its policies and basically decide which are most important. Those will get done first.

Sometimes they run out of time to turn their policies into reality before the next election,

It’s not a forgone conclusion op. The truth of the matter is no one knows who will win.

I’ll look that up too - haven’t read much about the labour campaigning but im
sure there’s a wealthy of (dare I say comical) info around the Miliband years 😀 thanks!

I think your first paragraph just nails it and shows how much of a balancing act the opposition have to do. I attended an anniversary march for the miners strike a few months ago in my S Yorks town. Behind Thatcher, Starmer was the most called out politician in the speeches which is what makes me think its not a foregone conclusion at all.

No for the following reasons:

1. boundary changes mean unpredictable results in new constituencies
2. Labour need a shedload of Scottish seats to get an overall majority - the SNP are on dodgy ground but who knows…
3. Secret Tories- there’s a real phenomenon of people voting Tory but not admitting to it to pollsters (for shame reasons!)
4. turn out- has trust / interest in the political process got so low that people (usually younger) won’t bother to vote
5. Reform party / Libdem will be recipients of protest votes which may deprive Labour of crucial swing seats they need to get an overall majority.

I’d say a small Labour majority or even hung Parliament are a good bet

Very interesting. Did they feel let down by how centrist he is?

No. There are still sufficient fair weather Labour voters who will only vote if the Party is currently 100% in accord with their own personal views to hand the election to the Tories.

Such voters call their action "sticking to their principles". I call it smug self-satisfaction.

They so picked the wrong Milliband brother.

Yes. Blair copped for a bit as well. The history was fascinating and Scargill gave a long speech as well about the timeline of the strikes. Overall, some of the beliefs are outdated - they feel old labour is the only labour and a small minority even that coal will make a comeback in this country. I've no idea where some of their protest votes would go though, or if they wouldn't vote at all. We do have a trade union/socialist candidate as usual so be interesting to see how they do. They got <300 I think in 2010 and given the passing of time I would be surprised if they do any better this time round.

Not at all.
There are tv debates and five more weeks to go yet. I still think it could be a hung Parliament, but that's only my opinion and most people I know think labour will win. They lead the polls.
Whoever gets in has a hell of a job with the NHS , money and everything else. I don't envy any of them, there are two many problems to try and solve.

I’m not convinced of a Labour win, even more so since today with the Diane Abbott thing. I think diehard Diane fans/Corbynistas people in her constituency will vote Green or Lib Dem in protest and split the vote, and diehard lefties in other constituencies may do the same either in ‘solidarity’ with her or just because there’s a worrying number of people still longing for JC and his ilk to come back because they think Starmer is too right-wing/they’re still not over Blair and Iraq. I know quite a lot of those types.

Think this puts it more succinctly than my previous waffle a couple of minutes ago 😂

The Diane Abbot thing from today is so odd.
Then again I don’t support antisemites being politicians and I find her tantrum over something that hasn’t happened to be rather crass.

I think many people expect a PM to have charisma, and that will be an obstacle for Starmer. But IMO he ticks the boxes that matter.

The thing with it is just that it’s divisive to voters. Some voters will support her and be angry, other voters will find her comments anti semitic and be annoyed that the findings weren’t presented months ago

Dare I say it - I think Diane thinks she holds more importance in the Labour Party than she does.

It's pretty simple really - it's a numbers game. If nonparty has enough seats (MPs elected) to outvote all the other parties and independents, they will have to seek allies among the other parties. The last time this happened, the Tories had to agree to implement some Lib Dem policies in return for the Lib Dems voting through some of the Conservatives policies.

I must say it's funny how PPs are crediting Cameron and Johnson with being such excellent campaigners and failing to mention the enormous boost they get from the right-wing press in this country. Remember a certain bacon sandwich and the absolutely heinous way in which it was eaten which would undoubtedly have resulted in the annihilation of Great Britain had Putin witnessed it?

Obviously Johnson did have a certain appeal amongst many and the simplicity bullshit of 'Get Brexit Done' was effective (so effective it's now never mentioned even though it's one promise that was kept - wonder why that is...) but Cameron was not a great campaigner. He also headed the Remain campaign and look how well that went. However, to be fair to dear old Hammy there was also the law-breaking on the Leave side - it was hardly a fair fight.

I think the press play a big part in it all, even today, and then unexpected things like the bloody 'bigoted woman' thing can crop up, but even that wasn't that unexpected as it was all tied in with fucking Brexit, not that it was even called that then I don't think. I think, when you step back and peel back the layers, there's often a common thread that takes hold. From 2015 onwards that was Brexit, and now I really do think it's the idea that everything has gone to shit in this country and that is the fault of the Tories who are corrupt/shit/both, or they've just been in too long. I think many people hold a version of that view and I hope (and barely dare to think) that that will be the thread that strengthens and will result in a clear Labour win.

But in some ways getting the press (of either wing) aligned with you is another part of campaigning?

I totally share your views btw, just making a point on getting the media onside.

Sorry - I think you have misinterpreted my comment.

I am not saying that DC and BJ are good campaigners themselves. I am complimenting the campaigning machine of the conservatives. The two are extremely different.