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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

183 replies

hangerba · 29/05/2024 20:30

That’s it really…

OP posts:
Littlebitofsomething · 30/05/2024 08:46

Political journalists have been frantically networking with Labor MPs for months on the understanding that they'll be in power next.

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 08:47

Littlebitofsomething · 30/05/2024 08:46

Political journalists have been frantically networking with Labor MPs for months on the understanding that they'll be in power next.

I’m not sure what point you’re making?

BIossomtoes · 30/05/2024 08:50

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 08:47

I’m not sure what point you’re making?

It’s not difficult. The media are expecting a Labour win.

haveacampaccuccuonme · 30/05/2024 08:55

CaravaggiosCat · 30/05/2024 08:25

Why the greens?

To keep the pressure upon sorting out our waste and water pollution problems, to keep the pressure up on direction towards net zero and improving UK biodiversity security.

All the green stuff y'know?

Magentaplasticglasses · 30/05/2024 09:14

Anything can happen. All I can say for certain is if Labour win, it won't be because the people love them. It will be because it's a two horse race and they're the only "Not Tory" party with a real chance of winning. Most of us recognise that Starmer is Tory Lite, but right now that's better than Tory Max.

I'm also a bit concerned that Labours social media campaign. It seems to be focussing on making memes about the Conservative party. We all know how much they hate the Tories. Labour should be using their platform to open up a dialogue about how they plan to successfully create change.

SherbetDips · 30/05/2024 09:14

Newbutoldfather · 30/05/2024 08:17

It’s going to be an absolute slaughter.

Why would anyone vote Tory today? They have neither made the economy successful, nor reduced taxes. And, on the other side of the coin, education and the NHS has been decimated. And we Brexited, which clearly hasn’t turned out well.

And the final insult is now rich Tory ministers and ex ministers have made themselves. Government is meant to work for the people , not the members of government. And all the lies and sleaze…..I could go on.

Yes, the Tories will pick up a few on VAT on school fees (although for the vast majority of private schools parents, they are used to fees going up annually and have it all comfortable budgeted for) and the culture wars, but the numbers won’t be significant.

I think the polls as now won’t change much, the Tories are heading for a slaughter and at least a decade out of government.

Because no matter how awful the Tory’s are being. Labour are worse. I can’t on good faith vote for that man. So conservative it is or maybe Lib Dem but I think that’s a wasted vote tbh

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 09:16

BIossomtoes · 30/05/2024 08:50

It’s not difficult. The media are expecting a Labour win.

The media were expecting a Labour win. The media are no longer expecting a labour win. Some are hoping for it, some actively promoting Tory.

HappiestSleeping · 30/05/2024 09:17

SherbetDips · 30/05/2024 09:14

Because no matter how awful the Tory’s are being. Labour are worse. I can’t on good faith vote for that man. So conservative it is or maybe Lib Dem but I think that’s a wasted vote tbh

Because no matter how awful the Tory’s are being. Labour are worse

I think there are a good many who disagree. Me for one.

BIossomtoes · 30/05/2024 09:18

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 09:16

The media were expecting a Labour win. The media are no longer expecting a labour win. Some are hoping for it, some actively promoting Tory.

Edited

Aren’t they? I haven’t seen anything to suggest a change of mind by any media. Do you have any links?

Barbadossunset · 30/05/2024 09:38

pinotnow · Yesterday 22:51
But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run

The British press isn’t wholly right wing. The Guardian and Daily Mirror represent the left.
I have no idea about political blogs though - are there more left wing ones than right wing? And which are more widely read/subscribed to?

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 09:39

BIossomtoes · 30/05/2024 09:18

Aren’t they? I haven’t seen anything to suggest a change of mind by any media. Do you have any links?

How can anyone link to such a thing, read the newpapers, you can judge tone.😂

Locutus2000 · 30/05/2024 09:39

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 09:39

How can anyone link to such a thing, read the newpapers, you can judge tone.😂

Just making it up, then.

BIossomtoes · 30/05/2024 09:41

Locutus2000 · 30/05/2024 09:39

Just making it up, then.

Exactly. It’s nonsense.

Soowoowoomoo · 30/05/2024 09:48

hangerba · 29/05/2024 20:30

That’s it really…

Yes, and by a landslide. I’m presuming by ‘policies’ that you’re yet another private school parent panicking about having to pay fair taxes in fees.

Or isn’t something else bothering you? Tories are so far behind that it may be a worse defeat than 1997 apparently

Soowoowoomoo · 30/05/2024 09:49

Tory MPs are quitting - ahead of the election. That’s because they are expecting to lose their seat anyway.

Soowoowoomoo · 30/05/2024 09:52

‘Because no matter how awful the Tory’s are being. Labour are worse.’

Really??? Because Inhave to say, this feels like rock bottom to me.

allthemiddlechildrenoftheworld · 30/05/2024 10:47

@hangerba I personally do not think that many people have any faith in Starmer!!! you never know what will happen. just feel more sorry for us in scotland who have to endure the idiotic snp who cannot do anything right!! we are technically under both westminster and holyrood! they should stop this devolution nonsense which is not working!

Newbutoldfather · 30/05/2024 10:58

@SherbetDips ,

Why do you think Labour will be worse? (I am a pretty much lifelong Tory voter bar voting for Blair in his first term).

We need a functioning medical system. We need a functional education system outside the private sector. And we need a sensible immigration and trade policy, not silly gimmicks like ‘Rwanda’. We also need our utilities to function properly, especially the most basic thing of all: clean water.

For the vast majority, the above are the sine qua non of a functioning modern democracy (plus defence, but I don’t see either party leading on this). The Tories have got so involved in infighting and enriching themselves that they have neglected the basics. To many outside the UK, we are no longer seen as a 1st World country (sorry if the phrase offends some, but everyone knows the meaning).

OTOH, VAT on school fees is a massive thing for a tiny amount of people. Most people educate in the state sector and, for the majority of private school parents, an extra couple of hundred thousand over 13 years of schooling isn’t significant and won’t be a defining issue. The gender wars are important but not vital for some and they are also being seen to have had their day with biological sex being increasingly accepted as definitional.

I find Starmer an intensely boring and not particularly likeable technocrat. But he is ‘doing a Blair’, just blocking Sunak and not committing to anything until he is in power. But he will put more money into the NHS and, hopefully, education. He will also, hopefully, renationalise water, although he hasn’t said it. I don’t love him but he doesn’t scare me either.

The Tories will get annihilated. I just can’t see what might happen ahead of July 4th to change the way people feel.

Dotjones · 30/05/2024 11:07

Yes they will win under normal circumstances. I think the only way they could lose is if they do something outrageous like unexpectedly announce they're legalising rape or intend to introduce a "scum tax" of 90% for anyone earning under £100k a year. Assuming they're not quite stupid enough to do anything like this the only real risk is a sudden new illness sweeping through Labour ranks and killing a significant number of candidates. If this were to happen the polls in those constituencies would have to be suspended whilst new candidates were put forward. This would take time, and if another party had enough seats they may be able to form a government. If they did a decent enough job before the new polls could be held, it may sway the vote away from Labour.

Under normally conceivable circumstances they can't lose.

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 11:11

Newbutoldfather · 30/05/2024 10:58

@SherbetDips ,

Why do you think Labour will be worse? (I am a pretty much lifelong Tory voter bar voting for Blair in his first term).

We need a functioning medical system. We need a functional education system outside the private sector. And we need a sensible immigration and trade policy, not silly gimmicks like ‘Rwanda’. We also need our utilities to function properly, especially the most basic thing of all: clean water.

For the vast majority, the above are the sine qua non of a functioning modern democracy (plus defence, but I don’t see either party leading on this). The Tories have got so involved in infighting and enriching themselves that they have neglected the basics. To many outside the UK, we are no longer seen as a 1st World country (sorry if the phrase offends some, but everyone knows the meaning).

OTOH, VAT on school fees is a massive thing for a tiny amount of people. Most people educate in the state sector and, for the majority of private school parents, an extra couple of hundred thousand over 13 years of schooling isn’t significant and won’t be a defining issue. The gender wars are important but not vital for some and they are also being seen to have had their day with biological sex being increasingly accepted as definitional.

I find Starmer an intensely boring and not particularly likeable technocrat. But he is ‘doing a Blair’, just blocking Sunak and not committing to anything until he is in power. But he will put more money into the NHS and, hopefully, education. He will also, hopefully, renationalise water, although he hasn’t said it. I don’t love him but he doesn’t scare me either.

The Tories will get annihilated. I just can’t see what might happen ahead of July 4th to change the way people feel.

Where will he get this money ?

HappiestSleeping · 30/05/2024 13:11

Lampslights · 30/05/2024 11:11

Where will he get this money ?

Probably by stopping some of the wastage of the Conservative party (Rwanda etc), managing what he has more efficiently, and increasing borrowing to some extent.

zingally · 30/05/2024 13:54

A very good friend of mine, who was, for many many years, a political correspondent for The Times, and still avidly follows all things politics, has been saying to me for at least the past 18 months, that Labour are going to landslide the next election.
Ever since the Boris days basically, she's been saying "they're fucked". And the only thing Starmer has to do in order to win, "is pretty much just don't say anything really dumb, and keep his head down." And let's be honest, Starmer could be called many things, but dumb isn't one of them.

Newbutoldfather · 30/05/2024 13:56

@Lampslights ,

I think they have to raise taxes. We are still below the European average in total tax take. I don’t think they will touch VAT or income tax but that leaves a host of other options, together with closing loopholes (like private equity carried interest, non dom status etc).

In education they might raise something from VAT on private fees, but it could also be their ‘Rwanda’, subject to a lot of legal challenges and won’t raise that much if it ever happens.

There are also a lot of efficiency gains to be made in the NHS.

frankentall · 30/05/2024 13:58

Dotjones · 30/05/2024 11:07

Yes they will win under normal circumstances. I think the only way they could lose is if they do something outrageous like unexpectedly announce they're legalising rape or intend to introduce a "scum tax" of 90% for anyone earning under £100k a year. Assuming they're not quite stupid enough to do anything like this the only real risk is a sudden new illness sweeping through Labour ranks and killing a significant number of candidates. If this were to happen the polls in those constituencies would have to be suspended whilst new candidates were put forward. This would take time, and if another party had enough seats they may be able to form a government. If they did a decent enough job before the new polls could be held, it may sway the vote away from Labour.

Under normally conceivable circumstances they can't lose.

Those two polices would be business as usual if there's another 5 years of Conservative rule.

HeadNorth · 30/05/2024 14:03

Going by posts on Mumsnet it isn't. All I seem to see at the moment are anti-Starmer posts. The main themes are VAT on school fees and trans - although there are occasional variations including dishonesty, Diane Abbott and personal appearance, these are the main 2 attack lines of the Tory women and they are relentless.