Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

[hangerba]

That’s it really…

I'm assuming so

But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run. (I do know Blair got the Sun on side and that was a massive achievement of that campaign, however it came about).

I agree that the Johnson campaign was impressive but I honestly can't remember much about the Cameron one and do feel in some ways it was a bit like the Tory situation now in that people felt it was time for a change and were blaming Brown for the financial crash. I suppose that did come up in the campaign and the Tories were absolutely on message for the decade after that in saying how Labour had wrecked the economy - they kept that up right up to Brexit/Covid as I recall.

But this Tory talent for campaigning has really not been much in evidence this time around has it?

Yep. And that press painted Corbin as a villain - a genuinely good man lost to a joker, known only for his lies.
And that's why the young generations bite differently - they don't consume that media.

Vote*, not bite!

Yes, you do get the press aligned with you, the Blair point is the exception that proves the rule.

Hoping your last sentence is true.

I’m not sure if the campaigning this time around is shit because 1) they are working with a damp squib or because 2) it’s just a different team without the force.

the second DC campaign was a huge achievement - I posted an article about it earlier in the thread.

agree the Blair campaign was also epic.

Well, if they get Dacre on side they won't that really will be the exception that proves the rule. And it wasn't simply the amazing quality of the Blair campaign that won the sun over as I understand it.

My last sentence is holding up for now at least, looks like they're aiming for the worst campaign ever.

Election results do not necessarily reflect the quality of the campaigning. If Labour and Tory both run good campaigns, as happened when Teresa May came close to losing a big lead, or both run poor ones, people will vote with the party they instinctively lean towards.

One can but hope. ❌

Well I thought so, but I'm starting to think Angela Rayner is being paid by the Tories to sabotage Labour's majority. The Diane Abbott situation is also a mess.

God save us from another coalition.

Nor do I. The last time I was impressed was when Major got on his soapbox.

I hope so but there are a lot of shy Tory voters.

Or Labour would form a minority government. Minority governments are worse than coalitions as they are at high risk of collapse.

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

I'm also growing suspicious that Sunak has something up his sleeve vis a vis the eccentric timing of the election. I mean, he could just be desperate or stupid but maybe there's a stunt coming.

Usually I’d say there are no foregone conclusions, but in this case I think the polls have been far too solid for too long.

I think the question is will the Tories even be the opposition party at this rate.

I heard today that a lot of over 65s are not voting Tory and for those under 55 (I think) the percentage intending to vote Tory barely gets above 10%.

That said, the votes aren't all going to Labour, but to Reform, so this doesn't necessarily mean a massive majority for Labour.

I think they will. I was there in ‘97 for the landslide (I was 26 at the time) and things were not this serious back then.

I’m not even sure how I’ll vote on the day, but I think the Tories are definitely toast. Not for long though, they’ll be back in next election.

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

No by running her mouth about the Labour intention to recognise a Palestinian state. She doesn't seem to have any capability for diplomacy or subtlety and the labour antisemitism situation is still so recent. She's a liability to us, I think.

You'd think the RTB muckraking would have taught her to keep her head down, though, now you mention it.

It’s not forgone no. A lot of people are clueless as to what Starmar actually stands for.

Some see through the rubbish that “everything will be better under Labour” (I hate the Tories, but Labour aren’t actually much better atm)

I hope so.

That might be because we’ve yet to see the manifesto. The TV debate next Tuesday will be entertaining.

I personally really liked DC - I think he came across as pretty sensible.

His and Osborne’s austerity stymied growth and decimated public services. I know the public fell for it though.

Going into the Autumn Statement and the winter months is a terrible time for the Tories to seek an uplift in votes though. COL is higher, the NHS is entering its annual crisis mode and less people in older demographics vote in winter.

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott. Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for? It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!