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Original poster

Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

183 replies

hangerba · 29/05/2024 20:30

That’s it really…

OP posts:
Carebearsonmybed · 29/05/2024 22:51

I'm assuming so

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 22:51

But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run. (I do know Blair got the Sun on side and that was a massive achievement of that campaign, however it came about).

I agree that the Johnson campaign was impressive but I honestly can't remember much about the Cameron one and do feel in some ways it was a bit like the Tory situation now in that people felt it was time for a change and were blaming Brown for the financial crash. I suppose that did come up in the campaign and the Tories were absolutely on message for the decade after that in saying how Labour had wrecked the economy - they kept that up right up to Brexit/Covid as I recall.

But this Tory talent for campaigning has really not been much in evidence this time around has it?

sf99 · 29/05/2024 22:57

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 22:38

I must say it's funny how PPs are crediting Cameron and Johnson with being such excellent campaigners and failing to mention the enormous boost they get from the right-wing press in this country. Remember a certain bacon sandwich and the absolutely heinous way in which it was eaten which would undoubtedly have resulted in the annihilation of Great Britain had Putin witnessed it?

Obviously Johnson did have a certain appeal amongst many and the simplicity bullshit of 'Get Brexit Done' was effective (so effective it's now never mentioned even though it's one promise that was kept - wonder why that is...) but Cameron was not a great campaigner. He also headed the Remain campaign and look how well that went. However, to be fair to dear old Hammy there was also the law-breaking on the Leave side - it was hardly a fair fight.

I think the press play a big part in it all, even today, and then unexpected things like the bloody 'bigoted woman' thing can crop up, but even that wasn't that unexpected as it was all tied in with fucking Brexit, not that it was even called that then I don't think. I think, when you step back and peel back the layers, there's often a common thread that takes hold. From 2015 onwards that was Brexit, and now I really do think it's the idea that everything has gone to shit in this country and that is the fault of the Tories who are corrupt/shit/both, or they've just been in too long. I think many people hold a version of that view and I hope (and barely dare to think) that that will be the thread that strengthens and will result in a clear Labour win.

Yep. And that press painted Corbin as a villain - a genuinely good man lost to a joker, known only for his lies.
And that's why the young generations bite differently - they don't consume that media.

sf99 · 29/05/2024 22:58

Vote*, not bite!

FrivolousKitchenRollUse · 29/05/2024 23:01

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 22:51

But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run. (I do know Blair got the Sun on side and that was a massive achievement of that campaign, however it came about).

I agree that the Johnson campaign was impressive but I honestly can't remember much about the Cameron one and do feel in some ways it was a bit like the Tory situation now in that people felt it was time for a change and were blaming Brown for the financial crash. I suppose that did come up in the campaign and the Tories were absolutely on message for the decade after that in saying how Labour had wrecked the economy - they kept that up right up to Brexit/Covid as I recall.

But this Tory talent for campaigning has really not been much in evidence this time around has it?

Yes, you do get the press aligned with you, the Blair point is the exception that proves the rule.

Hoping your last sentence is true.

amijustbeingsuspicious · 29/05/2024 23:04

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 22:51

But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run. (I do know Blair got the Sun on side and that was a massive achievement of that campaign, however it came about).

I agree that the Johnson campaign was impressive but I honestly can't remember much about the Cameron one and do feel in some ways it was a bit like the Tory situation now in that people felt it was time for a change and were blaming Brown for the financial crash. I suppose that did come up in the campaign and the Tories were absolutely on message for the decade after that in saying how Labour had wrecked the economy - they kept that up right up to Brexit/Covid as I recall.

But this Tory talent for campaigning has really not been much in evidence this time around has it?

I’m not sure if the campaigning this time around is shit because 1) they are working with a damp squib or because 2) it’s just a different team without the force.

the second DC campaign was a huge achievement - I posted an article about it earlier in the thread.

agree the Blair campaign was also epic.

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 23:09

Well, if they get Dacre on side they won't that really will be the exception that proves the rule. And it wasn't simply the amazing quality of the Blair campaign that won the sun over as I understand it.

My last sentence is holding up for now at least, looks like they're aiming for the worst campaign ever.

HelenaWaiting · 29/05/2024 23:10

amijustbeingsuspicious · 29/05/2024 21:35

the election results disagree with you

Show quote history

Election results do not necessarily reflect the quality of the campaigning. If Labour and Tory both run good campaigns, as happened when Teresa May came close to losing a big lead, or both run poor ones, people will vote with the party they instinctively lean towards.

Allenetall · 29/05/2024 23:12

One can but hope. ❌

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:13

Well I thought so, but I'm starting to think Angela Rayner is being paid by the Tories to sabotage Labour's majority. The Diane Abbott situation is also a mess.

God save us from another coalition.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:15

HappiestSleeping · 29/05/2024 21:20

I don't think campaigning has been impressive for decades I'm afraid.

Show quote history

Nor do I. The last time I was impressed was when Major got on his soapbox.

LoreleiG · 29/05/2024 23:18

I hope so but there are a lot of shy Tory voters.

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:19

frankentall · 29/05/2024 22:19

It's pretty simple really - it's a numbers game. If nonparty has enough seats (MPs elected) to outvote all the other parties and independents, they will have to seek allies among the other parties. The last time this happened, the Tories had to agree to implement some Lib Dem policies in return for the Lib Dems voting through some of the Conservatives policies.

Show quote history

Or Labour would form a minority government. Minority governments are worse than coalitions as they are at high risk of collapse.

pinotnow · 29/05/2024 23:19

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:13

Well I thought so, but I'm starting to think Angela Rayner is being paid by the Tories to sabotage Labour's majority. The Diane Abbott situation is also a mess.

God save us from another coalition.

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:20

I'm also growing suspicious that Sunak has something up his sleeve vis a vis the eccentric timing of the election. I mean, he could just be desperate or stupid but maybe there's a stunt coming.

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:21

Usually I’d say there are no foregone conclusions, but in this case I think the polls have been far too solid for too long.

AnotherexhaustedSENmum · 29/05/2024 23:21

I think the question is will the Tories even be the opposition party at this rate.

I heard today that a lot of over 65s are not voting Tory and for those under 55 (I think) the percentage intending to vote Tory barely gets above 10%.

That said, the votes aren't all going to Labour, but to Reform, so this doesn't necessarily mean a massive majority for Labour.

Catnipcupcakes · 29/05/2024 23:21

I think they will. I was there in ‘97 for the landslide (I was 26 at the time) and things were not this serious back then.

I’m not even sure how I’ll vote on the day, but I think the Tories are definitely toast. Not for long though, they’ll be back in next election.

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:23

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

No by running her mouth about the Labour intention to recognise a Palestinian state. She doesn't seem to have any capability for diplomacy or subtlety and the labour antisemitism situation is still so recent. She's a liability to us, I think.

You'd think the RTB muckraking would have taught her to keep her head down, though, now you mention it.

RandomButtons · 29/05/2024 23:23

It’s not forgone no. A lot of people are clueless as to what Starmar actually stands for.

Some see through the rubbish that “everything will be better under Labour” (I hate the Tories, but Labour aren’t actually much better atm)

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:24

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:21

Usually I’d say there are no foregone conclusions, but in this case I think the polls have been far too solid for too long.

I hope so.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:25

RandomButtons · 29/05/2024 23:23

It’s not forgone no. A lot of people are clueless as to what Starmar actually stands for.

Some see through the rubbish that “everything will be better under Labour” (I hate the Tories, but Labour aren’t actually much better atm)

That might be because we’ve yet to see the manifesto. The TV debate next Tuesday will be entertaining.

silverneedle · 29/05/2024 23:25

I personally really liked DC - I think he came across as pretty sensible.

His and Osborne’s austerity stymied growth and decimated public services. I know the public fell for it though.

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:26

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:20

I'm also growing suspicious that Sunak has something up his sleeve vis a vis the eccentric timing of the election. I mean, he could just be desperate or stupid but maybe there's a stunt coming.

Going into the Autumn Statement and the winter months is a terrible time for the Tories to seek an uplift in votes though. COL is higher, the NHS is entering its annual crisis mode and less people in older demographics vote in winter.

LaPalmaLlama · 29/05/2024 23:27

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:13

Well I thought so, but I'm starting to think Angela Rayner is being paid by the Tories to sabotage Labour's majority. The Diane Abbott situation is also a mess.

God save us from another coalition.

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott. Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for? It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!