Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

[hangerba]

That’s it really…

Yes indeed! Given the size of the country and remoteness of some places, it's essential. I got it for when taking my mother to vote wasn't possible anymore. Varies by state - in Queensland I had to apply for every blasted election. In Victoria it's just once.

May I ask another dumb question?

How are postal votes and letters posted in remote places? Is there an occasional mail pickup or do people have to drive to the nearest town/settlement?

Not a dumb question , but one I can only guess the answer - I would imagine the roadside mail pickup is the way.

But! I just had a look and for really remote communities, the Australian Electoral Commission takes minibuses around for people to vote.

Mandatory voting is a great idea IMO. If you really don’t want to vote, you can always just scribble on your ballot paper. But showing up at the polls (or voting by post or proxy) is something citizens should be expected and required to do, no different to paying taxes or taking part in the census.

I think they will win by a large majority. Since the last election a lot of people have been affected directly with huge mortgage increases and they don’t have Boris this time. Last general election the tories only just lost in my home town in north wales, why anyone there would think a Tory government would benefit them I don’t know, I think labour will be back to their huge majority there. Pretty sure a lot of people voted Tory due to Boris, and his get Brexit done pledge. Lis Truss then put the nail in the coffin for the tories

Let's be honest here. DC got in because of Brexit referendum promise. BJ got in because he was going to get Brexit done.
It wasn't charisma or fantastic policies; if you look at the no. 1 reason people voted for Brexit, it was immigration and distrust of foreign governments (ie Xenophobia). The elderly xenophobe vote is now going to Reform, as they have picked up the banner and are running on fibs about foreigners.

Another tedious thread about private schools. I am assuming this is the policy that the OP is so worried about.

No idea if Labour will win or not but I certainly hope so. Even of there is a coalition I would bet my house the VAT policy will stay.

So probably best to start planning for that OP.

Labour will probably win but only because people want to give the Tories a bloody nose, not because they actively want Labour and Starmer. If people are expecting Labour to do anything particularly different they’re in for a huge shock. Why are they obsessed with things like VAT on school fees and gender ideology? Because they won’t have the money to actually do anything to help the NHS and other issues people actually care about. They won’t help people’s mortgages come down and they won’t help inflation or cost of living.

It really is going to be a far cry from the Blair years. For a start we’re going to have many in the cabinet believing men can have a cervix, women can have a penis, and in David Lammy’s case, believing that women wanting to uphold their Equality Act protections are ‘dinosaurs hoarding rights’

Lastly, as for the ‘right wing bias’ of the media - the largest newspapers are right wing. But the BBC are left wing, as are TikTok, FB and X (yes, even since Elon Musk.

I wouldn't call the Brexit referendum because I thought it would be very close. I also thought Trump might win and was ridiculed for not being convinced that Labour would win in '92.

My gut tells me that Labour will win, but that they won't have the massive majority that recent polling suggests. I think they'll have an overall majority in the region of 30-50, and will be surprised (but delighted!) if they get a majority of more than 100. I also think that, while Reform will take votes from the Tories, they'll also take from Labour, but hopefully not to the same degree.

I'm hopeful that voters are coming round to the idea of voting tactically. I live in a Lib/Con marginal, and loads of Labour voters here vote tactically. I fully expect to see the Liberals win some seats in the south for the first time in ages because of that. If LD voters in Lab/Con marginals are prepared to do the same, that will make a massive difference. For those considering it, there is a website, tactical.vote.co.uk, which gives the best option for each constituency.

There are 2 big unknowns though. There have been lots of significant changes to boundaries since the last election, and it's hard to predict the impact of the Reform party. I think Reform will take votes from Labour as well as from the Tories. I think (and hope) that they won't win any seats, but I think they may have a significant effect on outcomes in some areas.

It is in an age group the Tories have always relied on to vote for them. They’re worried about it, so much so they’re bribing them with preferential tax treatment.

Older voters are still heavy Conservative voters. That and the fact they are more likely to vote. I wouldn’t say it is forgone either.

I think he did it because of the number of "no confidence" letters going in.

He didn't want to face a leadership challenge.

We will see but I’m not so sure. People have been confident about Labour winning before and it didn’t happen. I think most people are naturally quite right wing.

No idea but I went to private school so I don’t want a Labour government or vat on fees. 😂

I think a lot are changing though. I think the WASPI issue will be at the forefront of the minds of many older women, especially as that has all been pushed on the back burner again due to the election.

Labour has it in the bag. I realised this when Sadiq Khan was re-elected. I can’t think of a bigger waste of space.

How long have you been on MN for? Before the last election, it was the general consensus on here that Corbyn would win and by a significant majority. Many then seemed to be surprised or even confused when he lost.
With any social media platform there is always the risk of it being an echo chamber. Add to that the fact that one of the inherent divide between Labour & Conservative is (to put it emotively) on their selfless v selfish approach to benefits which seems to mean that Labour voters are more confident to own their vote as they will be met with kindness and support which in turn must mean that some will say they vote Labour but behave differently in the ballot box.

But the BBC are left wing, as are TikTok, FB and X

😂😂😂Ever heard of Robbie Gibb and Cambridge Analytica just for a start?

Exactly like when they voted Biden in to get ride of Trump.now some are saying they want Trump back. Nothing would changed much.

However, in your last line BBC is left but SM is mixed.

It’s going to be an absolute slaughter.

Why would anyone vote Tory today? They have neither made the economy successful, nor reduced taxes. And, on the other side of the coin, education and the NHS has been decimated. And we Brexited, which clearly hasn’t turned out well.

And the final insult is now rich Tory ministers and ex ministers have made themselves. Government is meant to work for the people , not the members of government. And all the lies and sleaze…..I could go on.

Yes, the Tories will pick up a few on VAT on school fees (although for the vast majority of private schools parents, they are used to fees going up annually and have it all comfortable budgeted for) and the culture wars, but the numbers won’t be significant.

I think the polls as now won’t change much, the Tories are heading for a slaughter and at least a decade out of government.

Opposing is much easier than doing the job.

@Bululu ,

But it would be really hard to do the job worse than the Tories have.

They have broken a fundamental contract with the electorate who pay a lot in taxes but aren’t kept safe and secure.

Starmer isn’t charismatic or super smart (by a long shot!) but he will, at least at first, just be sensible and improve the basics, which is hardly hard.

Why the greens?

It really is going to be a far cry from the Blair years.

That's not a bad thing though. Not for the reasons you state, but Blair couldn't have been worse.

Do not underestimate Labour's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
You will know from the tabloids nearer the time what the result will be.