To be worried about war here?

[beitasmalltown]

I don't listen to conspiracy theories but LBC news have reported this

NATO warn it's members to prepare their armies because they expect 'all out war' (the phrases used) with RUSSIA within the next 20 years

AIBU to be worried? Seems very extreme

Have previously felt very safe in my troubled yet generally very safe country with strong allies

Yes, the military does consist of peoples children. The freedom we all enjoy depends on their children, if things did hit the fan then invariably the expectation should be that people pull their weight and don't just leave it to other people and their children.

The world has always been volatile, there have always been a lot of threats and the government has often made unpopular decisions to try and keep us safe. War is always a possibility, no point actively worrying about it though really- just take each day as it comes. It's in NATOs interests to remind its members that war is a possibility, especially the UK who has the lowest number of serving personnel than it has for centuries. Personally i reckon a cyber attack that takes down critical infrastructure is more likely but who knows. Sadly we can't ever assume we'll always be safe.

Don't worry about Russia.

Worry about the geopolitical chaos that's going to be caused when huge areas of the Earth become uninhabitable due to climate change over the next century.

Might be useful to listen to the comments in context:

From 26.30 ish. He is talking about the fact that the whole of society must be involved if collective defence is required ie IF there is an attack. He refers to multiple systems that this might mean (conscription being one but he's mainly emphasising industrial capacity and the role the public might have in increasing that.) that was my understanding anyway

Just my opinion, but I do think in the next 5-10 years there will be a "cyber war" and a heightened "trade war".

We are already in the midst of a trade war and I see this becoming far, far worse with Taiwan, Middle East and NATO/Russia conflicts. Britain needs to start becoming more self reliant, especially after Brexit, otherwise costs will remain extremely high and we will have absolutely no quality of life for the next lot of decades.

I can see a cyber war starting in the next 2-5 years, with attacks on our cyber infrastructure, spyware, power grids being attacked, satellites etc. This will have an impact on our technology and national security. They will do this first before feet on the ground as in this day and age, attack on security systems, cyber etc is needed for a successful invasion.

As with invasions/feet on ground/physical war. I could see this coming to a head in the next 10 years. I don't, however, believe that the war will take place physically in the UK, but other parts of Eastern Europe, Scandinavian countries, Asian continents and Middle East. I believe that it will be a NATO vs the others battle. It will probably be the longest war in history as so many countries will be at play across the world. During this time, conscription will likely be introduced again, multiple terrorist attacks in UK, ban on travel (due to attacks and also cyber war). We will be confined to our own countries and the economy will completely collapse, leading way to a world currency/bank in the end governed by one powerful entity (I see this being a mix of all powerful leaders from each continent) as it will be determined that no side can actually "win" without nuclear war and destroying the entire planet.

I would say this wont be for another century or so, with conflict lasting 80+ years between powerful nations, with multiple wars in different parts of the world.

We see it panning out now.

The two things are connected, not separate I'm afraid

with attacks on our cyber infrastructure, spyware, power grids being attacked, satellites etc. This will have an impact on our technology and national security.

This already happens every day.

It will get worse. Blackouts on electric etc for days, weeks for large parts of the country.

They may well win but their a huge difference with taking on a country next door who wasn't really equipped for invasion and taking on Nato

"The freedom we all enjoy depends on their children"

Indeed.

But there is a big difference between people that have chosen that life and have gone through rigorous training specifically aimed at dealing with war - and young people being told that's what they are going to do, ending up in a war zone with little time for the education that could go some way to helping keep them and others out of harms way. Not that they would be safe, but it would help.

What are these opinions based on, if you don't mind me asking? What have you read/researched that underpins all these quite specific predictions?

Exactly

Not quite sure why this should come as a surprise - every epoch of human history is splattered with blood. Naïve to think we're different.

Agree

Op I’m not unaware of increased volatility. It’s expected to a degree imo

Although being worried doesn’t change much about what will happen

I don't think it's naive to think we're different.

The modern, western world is generally one of safety. We have developed to be more sensible people. We have laws against marital rape. Just an example of something legal not so long ago

We have come a long way!

We don't for example have ridiculously harsh penalties for things such as theft (once upon a time meant a death sentence). We are wiser and fairer. A far cry from even 100 years ago.

I'm a similar age and I also remember this. And my mum saying well we can't afford a house let alone a bunker, so guess that'll be us done.

I agree with a previous poster, it's just the same willy waving that's always gone on. Surely now there is more risk of cyber or biological attack, maybe nuclear, than some replay of the world wars.

They don't just phone people and say you're off to war tomorrow. Even in Ukraine where it escalated quickly those without military experience had access to formal training; lots have done it over here delivered by our military. If people don't sign up what's the alternative? We just let the country be blown to smitherins? Nowadays large swathes of the military aren't even combat roles.

Just not in my backyard isn't it really, if we were attacked it would be different to signing up and being sent to fight in a far flung conflict. If our streets were being bombed I'd expect people to not be as selfish as to just expect other people and their children to fight.

Yes it will happen. When ? who knows. Not a lot you can do about it so just live your life.

Trade and cyber attacks are already happening. This will become worse as time goes on. Russia knows they need as much intel and leverage as possible on NATO.

In terms of the countries that are being targeted, location and strategy will be a big factor. Nordic countries will give them leverage and oversight of the Baltic Sea. The likes of Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Romania etc all relatively close by countries but land gain all the same. This is how they will intensify pressure on Poland, Germany etc. Baltics give access to the UK more easily.

Having worked in foreign exchange, I have seen currencies go up and down. The ultimate power is money and power - it always has been. In this day and age though, all sides have strengths of their own and weaknesses. It will take a huge amount of time and mayhem before they finally conclude that a world leadership programme is best with input from all. They are already talking about digital currency and banks - how much easier would it be if it was all one? It also means the most powerful in each country will still have money, power and control. Its not all bad. I can see freedom of movement - the abolition of visas etc along with this so we can move freely to other countries etc.

I dont really read or research anything in particular. Just current events etc and its just my own predictions on what I think could potentially happen, everyone has their own opinion though.

Am I worried? No. Because there is nothing that us as ordinary citizens can do about it.

The reality is that we are already at war with Russia by proxy. In Russias eyes, they are in an all-out war with us and are fighting against NATO standard soldiers with NATO equipment. It’s no joke that our armed forces are sending 40k soldiers for military exercises, they are preparing to fight Russia head on. This doesn’t necessarily mean it will come to it but it’s definitely on the horizon. I think as long as NATO keeps providing Ukraine the support it needs, Ukraine will be able to hold off Russia until Russia’s economy collapses - unfortunately this will be a long time from now, and this conflict will likely last years and years. If Ukraine doesn’t get the support then British troops on the ground is inevitable.

thats just how I read the situation.

I didn't say they got no training. I said they had little time for it.

They certainly don't get the same level of training as someone that signs up to join the forces.

What would be your solution then? Perhaps mandatory service for everyone when they turn 18 to address the downturn in people joining? Or if the country was being attacked for people to be conscripted? Or just leave it and hope for the best?

I think you are reading things I haven't said.

I've said that it's the aspect that worries me most.

I haven't said that it shouldn't happen.

No war has ever been fought without someone's children being involved as combatants.

What's your point? Are you trying to suggest I shouldn't be concerned about the possibility of my children getting conscripted to fight in a war zone?

I suspect most parents would be.

Putin is old. He will age out soon enough and Russia will be forced to go through significant changes with a new leader. A new leader could bring instability as feet are found and old allegiances are renewed or cast aside. A new leader might be a carbon copy of him and things remain somewhat the same. Or it could be a revolution for Russia again.

the same goes for any country. Especially those under strict rule.

Xi Jinping is also 70. So when he ages out China will face the same possibilities.

we worried similar about North Korea.

so yes change is coming. The potential for war is always there even more so when a leader dies and power changes hands so NATO are not strictly unreasonable to say ‘prepare’ so we have a show of power for when that time comes.

will it lead to war? Who knows. We’re going through major global challenges in ways we’ve not seen before but I don’t think Russia is really our biggest problem but the Islamist terrorist run states. We shouldn’t take our eye of the ball though.