ANOTHER war. Anyone else feel terrified of what could come

[kuls938x]

Breaking news; UK signing off on air strikes against Yemen. Is this just going to get worse ?

Since having kids this honestly petrifies me. This world is a mess! I feel like it's one thing since another ever since Covid nothing has felt the same at all! Life before that almost feels completely different and a blur ! Anyone else?

Thank you for sharing this-really interesting article and really good analysis-also a little disturbing given the arsenal they possess with little ability to effectively direct it 😳

‘Overall, securing shipping requires a disproportionately resource-intensive effort on the part of the defender relative to the attacker when the latter has the advantage of proximity.’

They can cause a lot of havoc with not much and this is the recommendation (which may be what’s happening)

‘In Sum
The Houthis’ maritime strike capabilities are technically advanced but lack targeting sophistication. They therefore represent a manageable threat that can be countered with air defence assets in the region, providing that Iran does not improve target cuing for the Houthis. However, the Houthis are a persistent and determined opponent, and it is unlikely that they will halt their strikes simply because they are ineffective. This makes direct coercion to stop them more likely.

The most effective course of action would involve strikes against limited but valuable target sets within the Houthi organisation. Doing so would impact the group’s ability to continue its missile strikes while minimising the risk of a wider regional conflict, thereby enabling the US and other navies to free up capacity for other strategic concerns.’

I found it very interesting too. So much going on and a world of insight

What is also a little curious is Houthi fighters are apparently trained in Iran-who must be acutely aware of this fundamental weakness. Which begs the question why they haven't addressed this.

To me at least, it suggests Iran are willing to arm to an extent Houthi could pose no possible threat to themselves but just enough threat to cause disarray and force retaliation from the West. Supports the "Houthis are Iran's pawns" argument.

I can't imagine Iran's targeting capabilities to be so poor.

I think it’s here the kit is hard to create or move

The challenge, however, is that ballistic missiles require a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MARV) to be accurate against moving targets. MARVs are inherently difficult to design and could not be easily moved from Iran, so it is not clear that Houthi ASBMs have them. This could explain the margins by which they appear to have missed their targets.

Why are we spending all this money on war, we should be spending it on improving the NHS.

What are your thoughts on the subsequent US strike on the radar site @EasternStandard ? Initially I thought it may be a miss from the previous coalition strikes, but the press release is explicit it is completely unconnected to the previous coalition action. Struck me as a little odd that this was singled out as US only action.

The complete lack of economic understanding is staggering.

Where will the money for the NHS come from if the economy is fucked because of lack of fuel, because of inflation and shortage of goods?

We stopped trading with Russia, the oil and the gas need to come from somewhere else. This is the Red Sea route, because otherwise the shipments need to go round South Africa.

We just went through it too. Twice would be even worse.

@Lex345 I don't know about that one, have you read it in an article?

Yes here :

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3644980/us-forces-strike-houthi-radar-site/

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat but why is the UK getting involved, we are a tiny nation yet this is a world problem, why don't have the money to fight endless wars, our taxes are already the highest they have been since WW2, we are not the nation we once were!

I would suspect that the point for Iran is not for the Houthi’s to be entirely effective but to be enough of a nuisance to cause a response.

A friend of mine lived in Abu Dhabi for years. The city had a missile protection system (very like the system in Israel) because every now and then Islamic separatist groups in Yemen fire rockets directly at the city.

Honestly, if it's going to happen, then it's going to happen. No point worrying about it.

Just throwing out there Houthis fired at HMS Diamond a couple of days before these strikes, UN resolution passed condemning Houthi strikes, the economic implications of that shipping route closing would be catastrophic to millions of people...as some of the reasons we have got involved

Also war directly pays for the NHS. It’s a business.

MN is a great indicator of how the general population does not even have the basic comprehension of how the economy works.

Because we will be even worse off if we didn't.

So why aren't the French, Germans, etc, getting involved?

We'd be an even smaller nation if we had your attitude to world events.

Do you not follow current affairs at all?

Donald Trump was threatening to cut NATO funding the whole time he was president for precisely that reason. Not that this action in Yemen is NATO led. It is the precisely the reason the pejorative team ‘cheese eating surrender monkeys’ was coined to describe the French and became very popular after France criticised US action in Afghanistan and Iraq.

France and Germany usually turn up at the front of the queue to pick off the carcass but never get directly involved. Because it’s cheaper. But the largest economic gains from the defence and construction contracts post any way got to those who lead the military action.

Joint statement by governments of Australia, Canada, Bahrain, Denmark, New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, UK and US about strikes-the strikes were targeted and presumedly US and UK have the strategic positioning to carry out most accurately and efficiently (although UK planes had to rely heavily on US umbrella of protection due to flying from Cyprus)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/11/joint-statement-from-the-governments-of-australia-bahrain-canada-denmark-germany-netherlands-new-zealand-republic-of-korea-united-kingdom-and-the-united-states/

Because the French have always traditionally been closer to Lebanon and want to keep some influence with Hezbollah who operate there.

If you're looking at France and Germany though, then they have banned the Pro Palestinian rallies, which we haven't.

1% of the population has been killed in Gaza in this war.

That is a horrifying statistic when you put it into context. It would be like >650k deaths in the UK, which would wipe out one of our major cities (only London and Birmingham are significantly bigger).

I'm worried: not for myself or for the UK, because I think the chances of us being directly affected are very small, but for all the poor sods living in the Middle East, who have endured war or the risk of war for such a long time. I'm ancient, and I can barely remember a time where there's been relative peace in the region. I was 12 when the Six Day War took place in 1967 - nearly 60 years ago - and there always seems to be conflict somewhere in the ME: Lebanon, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria. No-one seems to have any answers.

I think the UK's involvement in the latest action may increase the risk of terrorism here, but the chances of getting caught up in a terrorist incident are probably still incredibly low. Or maybe I'm just more sanguine about it, having lived and worked in London during the early '70s, when IRA bombings on the UK mainland etc seemed an almost daily event at one point.

It seems the UK just blindly follows whatever the US does, like an excitable puppy, regardless of the cost.

Because the real world is not a video game, and you cannot convert an aircraft carrier into doctors and nurses.
The UK spends money on this war because it directly impacts the quality of life of British people. Shipping through the Red Sea is essential.
The UK spends money on the Ukrainian war because it is a massive direct threat to the peace in Europe. Ukrainians are now dying so British, French, Germans etc don't have to.
The UK will probably spend money, and likely people sadly too, on a much bigger global war in the next few years, and the reasons will probably be existential.

It is concerning. I mean we’ve just seen the impact of an energy shock and price spiral. It’s not unknown, well it shouldn’t be.

@Lex345 thanks for link I’m not sure. Maybe they do some together and others not, but I couldn’t say why