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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

3 kids - gender stats probability

133 replies

Blackcoffeeandbiscuits · 08/12/2023 13:29

I read in a few threads that the 3rd kid is most likely to be whatever the 2nd was.

So, if you had G-B then the third will be B
If you had B-G then another G is to follow
If you had G-G chances are that the third will be G, same as if you got B-B you will most likely get another B.

I know in theory each time the chances are 50-50 but this is what research/stats have said.

Is it true though? Let's find out!

AIBU - You have GBG or BGB or BBG or GGB
AINBU - You have GBB or BGG or BBB or GGG

OP posts:
DrearyDearyMe · 08/12/2023 20:17

Already posted but just thinking about other families that I know

Mine B G B

B B G
B B G
B G B

G B G

LapinR0se · 08/12/2023 20:19

My friends with 3 kids have
GBB
GBG
BGB
BBG

maybein2022 · 08/12/2023 20:21

G B B for me

Nutellaonall · 08/12/2023 20:25

BGB

JaninaDuszejko · 08/12/2023 20:41

Of the people I can think of:
GGGGG
BGBGG
GGBB
GBBG
BGBB
GBG
BGB
GGB
BBG
GBG
BGB
GBG
GGG
GGG

As a parent of 3DC it really annoys me that people assume you only have a third to try and have the other sex. Some of us just want 3DC and don't care about the sex.

KrisAkabusi · 08/12/2023 20:48

poetryandwine · 08/12/2023 13:36

And male pilots have more DD because for some reason they have lazy sperm

This isn't true. It's a myth because of really really bad statistical analysis.

Tohaveandtohold · 08/12/2023 20:54

My mum had BBG and I’m the girl
MIl had BBB
I have GGB
so it was for MIl but not for me and my mum

Iwant2beJessicaFletcher · 08/12/2023 20:55

I've got GBG.

I'm the eldest if 3 - again GBG.

Your theory doesnt work for us!

Kendodd · 08/12/2023 20:56

Ooh, great thread!
I was hoping for some links to the maths or some actual mathematicians
posting though.

yikesanotherbooboo · 08/12/2023 21:02

GBB for me
BBG for DSis

SugarPlumpFairy3 · 08/12/2023 21:02

I had DD then girl/boy twins so not sure I’m very helpful!

Technically, I have GBG but that’s just because ds was twin 1. Even if dd2 was twin 1, I’d have GGB which still doesn’t prove your theory 😆.

PotteringAlonggotkickedoutandhadtoreregister · 08/12/2023 21:06

I have BBB

my friends have:

GBB
GGG
GBB

so all live up to your theory!

DollyParsons · 08/12/2023 21:07

Interesting.

Family and friends:

BBB
BBB
GGGG
BBB
GBB
BBB
BBB
GBB
GBG

VickyEadieofThigh · 08/12/2023 21:11

I have no children but am the G of BGB set. My female partner is the final G of GBBG.

Hawkerslife · 08/12/2023 21:16

BBB. I know a fair few other people that have BBB too but only one with GGG.

peanutbear · 08/12/2023 21:17

BBG

ChangeNameLikeIChangeSocks · 08/12/2023 21:18

I have
B
G (didn't make it)
B
So not sure if my G counts as 2 or 1.5

lifeisahamsterwheel · 08/12/2023 21:35

I have GGB most people I know with 3 have 3 of the same sex. I think it's also worth pointing out when I see these posts that it's only relative information if posters are using the same parents for the 3 kids not different dads as it's the male that determines the sex so different dads won't make the results accurate as it's not 3 from the sane gene pool.

Flanjango · 08/12/2023 22:09

Difficult to say for sure as middle "child" was twins. But in birth order. B,g,b,g.

4kidsx · 08/12/2023 23:47

GGGG

Most my family has BGB though.

poetryandwine · 09/12/2023 00:23

KrisAkabusi · 08/12/2023 20:48

This isn't true. It's a myth because of really really bad statistical analysis.

Show quote history

Can you explain why or give a reference please?

KrisAkabusi · 09/12/2023 00:50

It's from the late 1970s when it was noticed that Israeli Air Force pilots were the fathers of all girls. Various theories were put forward to explain it, including the slow sperm theory. Which has continued to be repeated as a plausible explanation.

The problem is, as soon as people noticed it, it stopped happening. Pilots started having the usual near 50:50 boy girl ratio. For a hypothesis to work it has to be able to predict future trends as well. This isn't because something changed, it's because of poor statistical understanding.There was nothing special about Israeli pilots. It could have been Icelandic farmers, Angolan construction workers or Japanese waitresses. If you take any combination of nationality and occupation, through sheer chance, one of them will have a long run of same sex births. The same as if you toss a coin a million times, you are likely to see a run of twenty heads. And because prior births or tosses have no bearing on the next one, the run will naturally come to an end.

It was pure chance, nothing to do with anything occupational or biological.

Theaviator · 09/12/2023 00:59

I have G B B x