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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Is there going to be another pandemic

578 replies

Lookingforwardtoautumnnow · 28/08/2023 16:10

This winter?

Seen a couple of people posting about it, tbf they are conspiracy types, but I have anxiety after having covid & long covid and can’t go through all that again. Can anyone reassure me?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
wheresmymojo · 28/08/2023 22:50

KickingEAP · 28/08/2023 16:30

I think the only circumstances in which there would be another lockdown in this country within my lifetime would be if there was a disease that was particularly dangerous towards children.

Even if it had a mortality rate of 50-75%?

Which is certainly possible with avian flu...

Againstmachine · 28/08/2023 22:53

Mumtobabyhavoc · 28/08/2023 21:48

Have had it 5x with three times being this year. Am pregnant and have had Covid almost every day of pregnancy. Had symptoms for 10 weeks after catching it in May. Felt good for 4 days then caught it again after exposure end July. Have posted previously about it. Caught it outdoors twice.

I think it's obvious herd immunity doesn't exist; protection from recent infection is minimal if at all (had it Feb/May/July this year; 21 weeks illness in total) six feet of distance does nothing (likely gave it to my neighbour chatting outdoors when I was first ill in May; neighbour was also ill almost three months);
masks work; vaccination helps. Long-term effects are still unknown. People can take their chances, but shouldn't criticize those that take precautions.

Five-days of isolation was reduced from ten days under pressure from gov't and business; and testing windows are quite small (3-5 days max from onset of first symptom). Hence, so many false negatives. Regarding earlier info that masks may not work: health auth wanted to protect supply and it was u k own if virus was aerosolized (spray from a sneeze or cough and just from breathing) which is why 6 feet distance was said to be safe. Sharing air leads to infection and very little of the virus is needed to become sick.

Many people are lucky to have mild/very mild illness, but it still is not known how a person's health will be affected 10-20 years out after even mild illness (esp children).

I'm not for lock downs unless disease is out of control, but masks, isolating when any symptoms of illness (even at home from family) are present; and free access to vaccination on demand plus vaccination programs to reach the larger population, ability to work from home, not penalizing the sick, are all sensible measures to support people and keep economy etc going.

Getting off soap box now. 😁

So you have had it 5 times which I don't believe but you also want lots of measures when it seems you having it 5 times you don't follow.

dreamingbohemian · 28/08/2023 22:54

ShadyCat · 28/08/2023 22:32

@dreamingbohemian I'm honestly not sure that would even work
You'll have the tin foil hat brigade saying they're slipping covid vaccines and microchips in them... Grin

No doubt!

I honestly have no faith anymore in our ability to respond to a new pandemic. God help us if something worse shows up.

If you really want some nightmare fuel look up zombie pathogens. It's not a conspiracy theory, its a real (albeit hopefully unlikely) possibility.

PinkCherryBlossoms · 28/08/2023 22:56

dreamingbohemian · 28/08/2023 22:49

I think the point people are trying to make is that people probably wouldn't obey a lockdown if its another covid situation. The only thing that would get people to stay home is if its a much more dangerous disease, Ebola level.

And yes, it's beyond obvious that if half the country is dead, we're well beyond lockdown. So when people say Ebola would keep people home, they are very obviously referring to the early stages.

You make an interesting point about whether people actually would lock down again for something like covid. I definitely agree that as things stand, they wouldn't. That 'sweet spot' has got a lot narrower, possibly even disappeared. However, that might change in the future. So I don't think we can rule out the possibility that lockdown could happen again at some point, albeit not for a few years at least.

But on the very obviously claim, nah. The post I initially responded to on the issue simply did not say that, and showed no evidence of that level of analysis. The people who want to assure us we'd all be locking down if we were scared enough never do. You can't just rewrite posts to include assumptions you think improve the argument.

SomeCatFromJapan · 28/08/2023 23:05

Even if it had a mortality rate of 50-75%?

A disease with a mortality rate that high is by its nature pretty self limiting.

User2346 · 28/08/2023 23:16

HateLongCovid · 28/08/2023 21:14

👏👏👏👏👏👏. Beautifully put. I'm afraid many people can be very ignorant! If it doesn't affect them they can't see it!

So what is it that you want?

Mumtobabyhavoc · 29/08/2023 00:14

Againstmachine · 28/08/2023 22:53

So you have had it 5 times which I don't believe but you also want lots of measures when it seems you having it 5 times you don't follow.

Yes, unfortunately 5x. December '21 with a newborn. Had first and only unmasked visiter. Only unmasked when eating and sat across the room from each other to "be safe."Sick three days later. Lasted about 6 weeks. Friend also became sick the day after visit so was obviously infected. (Works in hospital)
September '22 after taking dc to indoor play.
Lasted about a month.
The next three times were as previously described. February was indoor play again; May and July were outdoors. Visible snot on other child's face. I thought nothing of it as it was clear in both instances.
I mask in close contact circumstances still, but didn't outdoors as info has been no risk. At indoor play all children were toddlers and babies so of course no one in masks. Very small children can't, obviously. And no point in adults masking there as if dc gets it so do you. We were about 2 hours indoors in those two cases.
I feel so defeated with illness this year.

Cucucucu · 29/08/2023 06:43

BygoneDays · 28/08/2023 19:55

But you didn’t die.

But living in lockdown to many is not a life worth living

Augustus40 · 29/08/2023 06:50

I won't be having any vaccines unless it affects travel. Luckily I never caught covid nor did ds.

LonesomeRanger · 29/08/2023 06:58

There seem to be rumblings in the press and around, that there is a new strain of Covid, and more people around me are getting it recently.

I am not a paranoid type, even though I have had it twice, but I will be taking a few more precautions this Autumn and Winter and making sure my medicine cabinet is a bit more up to date.

Whatever happens, it won't result in a lockdown or hysteria like it was.

Timeless23 · 29/08/2023 07:17

Mumtobabyhavoc · 28/08/2023 21:48

Have had it 5x with three times being this year. Am pregnant and have had Covid almost every day of pregnancy. Had symptoms for 10 weeks after catching it in May. Felt good for 4 days then caught it again after exposure end July. Have posted previously about it. Caught it outdoors twice.

I think it's obvious herd immunity doesn't exist; protection from recent infection is minimal if at all (had it Feb/May/July this year; 21 weeks illness in total) six feet of distance does nothing (likely gave it to my neighbour chatting outdoors when I was first ill in May; neighbour was also ill almost three months);
masks work; vaccination helps. Long-term effects are still unknown. People can take their chances, but shouldn't criticize those that take precautions.

Five-days of isolation was reduced from ten days under pressure from gov't and business; and testing windows are quite small (3-5 days max from onset of first symptom). Hence, so many false negatives. Regarding earlier info that masks may not work: health auth wanted to protect supply and it was u k own if virus was aerosolized (spray from a sneeze or cough and just from breathing) which is why 6 feet distance was said to be safe. Sharing air leads to infection and very little of the virus is needed to become sick.

Many people are lucky to have mild/very mild illness, but it still is not known how a person's health will be affected 10-20 years out after even mild illness (esp children).

I'm not for lock downs unless disease is out of control, but masks, isolating when any symptoms of illness (even at home from family) are present; and free access to vaccination on demand plus vaccination programs to reach the larger population, ability to work from home, not penalizing the sick, are all sensible measures to support people and keep economy etc going.

Getting off soap box now. 😁

You've had it 5 time, wear masks and take precautions? Vaccines helps? I'm not vaccinated, never wore a mask and mixed how much I could, and know lots who aren't vaccinate and carried on as normally as we could at the time. The ones who are vaccinated are repeatedly getting it, they are also getting more and more health issues, and yes dying suddenly. How are these vaccines even working? I've had it once and had worse colds and wild virsues as told by ny GP years ago. Mind boggling

Timeless23 · 29/08/2023 07:31

If there is another pandemic and it's 75% mortality, you will not see the government for dust, no one to save you. They were never there to save you. You will not be sitting there watching TV listening to endless propaganda. You will not be told to ask as though you have it. Great scientific explanation on that one, act like you have it. Reverse placebo, listen to the scientists who were really speaking out on it all, not the experts the BBC pulled out.

The government would not be partying right in the middle of the pandemic either. They would not state you've died of covid if you've tested postive within 14 days, even if someone died of other causes. They wouldn't need nudge units to control perceptions and behaviour either.

WhalePolo · 29/08/2023 09:09

@Lookingforwardtoautumnnow

I personally think that hospitals will be stretched again this winter, but I think whatever hybrid immunity we’ve acquired will mean we won’t see anything as bad or the measures taken a few years ago. It might be that certain groups are advised to get vaccinated.

In years to come - yes there may well be another pandemic and I think we should learn from this one.

Unfortunately this type of threads attract the conspiracy or semi-conspiracy or anti-science types who don’t really know what they are talking about and make the situation worse.

It’s best to follow the NHS or global health guidelines. It’s the world consensus of best medical opinion and far more likely to be healthy or safe than “I’ve seen a YouTube vid/read a scary book/have no medical qualifications/it’s all an Orwellian Big Brother type dystopia” type responses you’ll get here.

Mum1976Mum · 29/08/2023 11:27

WhalePolo · 29/08/2023 09:09

@Lookingforwardtoautumnnow

I personally think that hospitals will be stretched again this winter, but I think whatever hybrid immunity we’ve acquired will mean we won’t see anything as bad or the measures taken a few years ago. It might be that certain groups are advised to get vaccinated.

In years to come - yes there may well be another pandemic and I think we should learn from this one.

Unfortunately this type of threads attract the conspiracy or semi-conspiracy or anti-science types who don’t really know what they are talking about and make the situation worse.

It’s best to follow the NHS or global health guidelines. It’s the world consensus of best medical opinion and far more likely to be healthy or safe than “I’ve seen a YouTube vid/read a scary book/have no medical qualifications/it’s all an Orwellian Big Brother type dystopia” type responses you’ll get here.

Follow the NHS and global health guidelines?? You mean, the ones that were so crap during the Covid pandemic. And as for trusting government….look at all those lies! How many people died due to Boris pretending all was fine and shaking hands with everyone, not locking down until late March, letting the children go back to school for one day before Xmas, Eat Out To Spread It About???

I was glad that there were doctors and other experts posting on YouTube about what was to come. It meant that I locked my vulnerable family down in early March and we are all still here - we didn’t catch Covid until after we got vaccinated. Governments here and abroad will look after themselves during a pandemic - as has been proven. It’s every man for himself.

WhalePolo · 29/08/2023 11:55

@Mum1976Mum

I believe they were the best option we had - they were not ‘crap’. The vaccine wasn’t ‘crap’. I agree that our government should have acted more swiftly, and did highly questionable things during the pandemic. I’m talking more about the posters on here who are anti-restrictions and anti-vaccine and the type of books/YouTube nonsense that goes with that.

I personally did - as you did - and took extra precautions as I was caring for someone extremely vulnerable.
But even if our government were poor, the health guidelines across the world were giving not dissimilar advice to NHS guidelines. But I think our government had a poor response when compared to Finland, New Zealand. But better than say India, Hungary, Brazil.

If globally we were doing it wrong, who was doing it right?

Mumtobabyhavoc · 29/08/2023 15:53

@Timeless23 I agree, it's bloody confounding. I've had worse symptoms than my dmum who has cancer and Crohn's. I am otherwise fit and healthy. Just bad luck, I guess. Most people seem to het milder cases and many people are asymptomatic carriers. I wish gov'ts would study this!!!

RYANCONWAY602 · 29/08/2023 18:01

I had covid. Because i was so weak and didn't take the test ( i had 2 posted )....not even my family believed me. I was in my bed for 5 months, and genuinly thought i was going to die every single second. if it happens again, it's the lack of responsibility of others who didn not have it. I'm a single man who knows what it's like.

RYANCONWAY602 · 29/08/2023 18:03

i had to crawl to the shops because i needed to eat. sorry, but it's true. i can't even remember how many times i passed out.

RYANCONWAY602 · 29/08/2023 18:05

Anyone who thinks it's a conspiracy.... FK you. I hope you get it next time, then you won't even be able to moan as you won't be able to even lift your arm to even text.

whatausername · 29/08/2023 18:12

@Lookingforwardtoautumnnow read the last 3 paragraphs here, there are other things to be more concerned about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-66643241

duffeldaisy · 29/08/2023 18:13

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 28/08/2023 19:10

What we can do is:

  • invest in cleaner air (filtration/ventilation)
  • require masks in medical settings
  • consider further mask mandates when transmission is high eg on public transport, during peaks
  • expand the autumn vaccination programme
  • better messaging on the guidance for what to do if you have covid (ie stay at home unless essential you leave it, practice social distancing if you must go out plus keep away from more vulnerable people)
  • provide prophylactic MABs (when available) to the critically vulnerable (one of the biggest disgraces of the whole pandemic to date is the failure to do that in 2022)
  • invest in research towards a fully sterilising future vaccine
  • invest in research for better antivirals, and make them more widely available
  • create better long covid care pathways

Well said.
We have really clear evidence on what works.

I wore N95 masks in crowded public places/places with poorer air flow, and managed not to get it - finally caught it from a family member. I have no underlying health conditions, had all 3 jabs offered. I'd had hard times with flu once before, which is why I was careful.

I had long covid which made me properly exhausted and meant I had to cut down work for almost 6 months. Millions of people have similar.

I have never stopped wearing N95s since. It's not fear, it's not anxiety - it's genuinely wanting to be well and keep working that means I do the most sensible thing, because governments haven't done what UnmentionedElephantDildo has recommended here yet.

OP, you said you've had long covid, and I completely understand your concerns. I'd recommend wearing a mask in public places, as N95s or better are effective if you shape the nose band well. I don't know that there'll be another different pandemic soon, but this one is still quietly rumbling on because people just aren't wearing masks when ill, or opening windows enough/investing in ventilation enough. So all you can do is protect yourself. Then, even if you do get it, you'll get a lower amount because some will be filtered out.

maddiemookins16mum · 29/08/2023 18:21

I’ve known more people with Covid in the last month than for a long time (2 years) - all ages. All were up and about in 48 hours.

Tessabelle74 · 29/08/2023 18:21

Probably. Will it result in lockdown etc? I highly doubt it, after the way the cockwombles in charge behaved last time, even those of us that did everything we were told last time will be sticking 2 fingers up at them!

LovelyIssues · 29/08/2023 18:21

There will always be new strains. Let's face it for majority of people it felt like a head cold for a couple of days. I don't think we'll ever go back into lockdown etc again. It was totally blown out of proportion.