What's going on in Moscow?? Wagner convoys go towards Moscow.

[Xoxoxoxoxoxox]

Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_enMilitary police convoy driving towards Ministry of Defense in Moscow.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672380417477844995

Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_enPMC Wagner wonders where Putin is?

There was a special broadcast on First Channel. In addition to reading the press release from the Federal Security Service, it was reported: "Putin has been informed of all of Prigozhin's actions and the necessary measures are being taken. That's all for now, we're following the progress of events."
And so are we. And where is Putin?

I'm most confused about Lukashenko running off to Turkey this morning. Have seen the rebel Belarussian troops in Ukraine put out a statement that the Belarussian troops will be called upon soon... And that Wagner troops remain in Belarus. Still, seems like a cowardly over-reaction and makes me wonder what other info he has that I don't know.

It was verified in one of the Ukraune government tweets that Russia bombed Wagner troops on Friday. Whether that was Shoigu's order or not, that was the spark.

Still, seems like a cowardly over-reaction

Name me a brave tyrant ...

We don't have proof of Lukashenko's whereabouts.

The Presidential plane certainly went to Turkey last night, but we don't know who was on it (it's also used by his family members) or the reason for the journey (they go there from time time anyhow).

It's suggestive, but until he pops up somewhere, we can't be completely sure

To be fair, of anyone in history, Prigozhin most reminds me of Mao. Not exactly known for his gentleness towards adversaries.

True. Shoigu's daughter is confirmed as going to Dubai as well though. This isn't an initiative they expect to squash quickly.

Bill someone (author on Outin) on Times radio saying it could be the case Prigozhin is less likely to continue war in Ukraine as it’s Putin’s war

But still could be bad for Russia and geo politics as he’s likely to run a mafia dictatorship

Putin

President of Belarus is saying that Wagner group have agreed to stop movement around Russia and de-escalate.

Breaking news (although this hasn’t been verified by Wagner group or the Kremlin as of yet).

My current pet theory is that Wagner (their whole leadership group - including officers with Spetsnaz, GRU and army logistics backgrounds) have known for some time that they are going to be blamed for any failure in Ukraine, and have been quietly building covert alliances with key Russian middle-ranking military officers. Because if/when the mission fails, they'll be taken out (literally - imprisoned at best, executed or assassinated more likely) by their Russian paymasters. So this is their chance at (literal) survival.

They choose the moment to make their move, hoping that their "allies" let them through and it build a momentum which makes a complete coup possible (because others will hitch themselves to them once they look like winners). But there's a risk that those allies might not follow through - very dangerous for the officers involved if Wagner does not prevail).

And there will still be some units they will have to fight through - notably Rosgvardia (Putin's army-within-the-army). Unless of course they have used their GRU skills and connections to recruit any assets there. And that Putin doesn't have covert assets within the Wagner organisation who could sabotage

SunnyEgg · Today 18:21

But still could be bad for Russia and geo politics as he’s likely to run a mafia dictatorship

That's exactly how Putin runs Russia. All businesses have to pay him to be their "roof."

Well that was all a bit anti climatic

If I was Prigozhin I’d be staying away from high rise hotels and cups of tea for the foreseeable future though.

They guy had some other words which painted him as slightly worse but I can’t recall

Seems there has been an update though. Seems a big turn around

update

Times radio news a bit behind the update

OK, so he doesn't want active fighting today.

I wonder why that is. Could it be a logistics issue?

There's nothing they could do about it. Like UK citizens when we invaded Iraq, however taking to the streets isn't really an option in Russia. Putin doesn't take criticism well.

Prigozhin has signed his own death warrant.

I might be cold but I have little sympathy left for the Russian citizens. Yes awful that they’re in the centre of this but it’s just a taste of what Ukrainians have dealt with, and the Russian public have largely ignored.

You protest there, you get thrown into jail and your kids into the nearest orphanage if you don't have family to take them. Would you?

however taking to the streets isn't really an option in Russia.

Well in the UK when it was it didn't achieve anything.

Prigozhin has signed his own death warrant

Unless he wins, of course.

High stakes, but he could be bumped off or killed in conflict at any time (as could any of the others at the top of Wagner) so perhaps that makes it worth the attempt.

Exactly. When leaders decide on war, citizens can do little to nothing. Be it British citizens or Russian ones.

Dafuq? What is everyone doing now? Prigozhin can't work for Shoigu again, invading Russia is easy, Putin weak, Lukashenko of all people is the negotiator... They are all at risk. Did he really take half of Russia in a wild fit of pique? Do we just wait until next weekend to see who from the top survives?

I wonder why he gave up so soon after starting