What's going on in Moscow?? Wagner convoys go towards Moscow.

[Xoxoxoxoxoxox]

Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_enMilitary police convoy driving towards Ministry of Defense in Moscow.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672380417477844995

Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_enPMC Wagner wonders where Putin is?

There was a special broadcast on First Channel. In addition to reading the press release from the Federal Security Service, it was reported: "Putin has been informed of all of Prigozhin's actions and the necessary measures are being taken. That's all for now, we're following the progress of events."
And so are we. And where is Putin?

Apparently Putin began a speech broadcast live on tv a few minutes ago- BBC will update

Any instability is scary in a country with hundreds of nuclear warheads.

Prighozin doesn’t strike me as being stupid, so I am guessing that he feels enough generals will back him so his rebellion is not put down quickly.

Also hard to see how Ukraine can be held without his group’s help.

Looks to me now like some kind of an end game with a few possible outcomes:

. Rebellion is put down and Wagner mercenaries commit to fighting within Russian army.

. Prighozin takes Moscow, pulls out of Ukraine and does some kind of deal with the west to help Russia if it pulls out of Ukraine. He already is claiming that invading Ukraine was just an excuse to consolidate Purim’s power.

. Putin uses this ‘invasion of the motherland’ as an excuse to use nukes, either tactically or even strategically. I am hoping that this is the least likely…..

in any event, this will probably accelerate the outcome of the Ukraine invasion.

I’m sorry. I feel incredibly thick here and will go and read up now but could someone give me a quick idiot’s précis?

I presume Prigozhin will be quietly paid off to go away.

Yeah - if someone could please explain like I'm 5.

I haven't been following but is this correct? Putin allowed the Wagner group to attack Ukraine on his behalf but now it's bitten Putin on the bum because the Wagner group now want to depose Putin and take over Russia by military means?

The simple version-

Yevgeny Prigozhin has been a friend of Putin’s for years (sometimes referred to as Putin’s chef as he had a restaurant business) and owns the Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner have been fighting in Ukraine as part of the wider Russian invasion force (previously very active in other conflicts around the World). Prigozhin dislikes many of the Russian military command (such as Shoigu, the defence minister) and has been very critical.

Recent Russian success in Bakhmut have been largely down to Wagner and there has been a sense from Prigozhin that Wagner aren’t getting the recognition they deserve. Yesterday he claimed that the Russian military had bombed Wagner troops (either intentionally or due to a fuck up) and launched a ‘coup’ type affair against the Kremlin.

On the surface it seems he’s gunning for Putin but lots of experts suspect he might be working with Putin to effectively get rid of the less than effective military command structures in Russia. Prigozhin even went so far as to say Putin was duped into invading Ukraine by his generals etc.

Bottom line - Prigozhin is an evil piece of shit and his troops have committed heinous crimes in Ukraine.

I don't know. Putin needs Wagner as the Russian army are a bit shit but he'll look really weak if he let's this slide.

I have no idea what the end game is here.

More or less, that's correct. Putin was desperate to avoid more conscription which would be extremely unpopular in Russia so he used militia groups like Wagner to do his (very) dirty work for him. Now they seem to have turned against him. I don't think they will succeed. For one thing Rostov is 1000km from Moscow.
However, this is a major distraction for Putin and could seriously destabilise him. On the other hand it could strengthen him as even if they hate Putin, I can't see an attempted coup going down well with ordinary Russians.

Basically yes.

Putin wanted Wagner under Russian control by 1st of July and Wagner said 'LOL no'.

Thank you!

That idiots guide is so useful, thank you @Igotjelly - I’ve been following this but felt like I’d missed the start and couldn’t catch up!

It seems there is a chance this could be good for Ukraine, if Putin “wins” against this man. As he will have lost the Wagner owned soldiers who have been so active in Ukraine, plus the ones who turned against him - which weakens his position there. He doesn’t want to use conscription, so how will he replace them?

Plus this man is putting it out there that the Russian causalities are much higher than reported and that the war was entered into for false reasons. So this could cause the ordinary Russians to lose support for the way?

(I could be way out here and am clearly not very knowledgable about the situation - but that is what I am summarising from what I’ve read so far!)

fuck MN needs an "Explain to me like I'm 5..." topic 😳.

I think I understand what's going on.

To be fair even the experts are a bit WTF, no one really knows what’s going on.

Prigozhin is pitching a fight with Shoigu because he wants more power; nominally both were friends with Putin before this morning. Certainly he's been pissed off about Russian military accidentally or "accidentally" attacking his private Wagner army. It is unclear if he aims to depose Putin, or only take over the military command under Putin deposing Shoigu, or if this is Putin's way out of Ukraine. I doubt any of them know which of the others around them are truly on their side, few can be trusted at that level in Russia. Shoigu has expanded the military capabilities of Russia and started up military groups in Ukraine back in 2014, so he needs nobody's sympathies. It does appear from Putin rebadging Prighozhin's efforts as neo-nazi that Putin's veering towards Shoigu; if Prigozhin's had loyalties then they would presumably adapt accordingly.

I'd be on it all the time!

Thank you for explaining. I think I understand everything but the "Private Military Group". That sounds terrifying.

I can't work out where this might end up. The Wagner group has stated they'll fight to the end, the Russian Government is talking in terms of mutiny and high treason. A lot of Russia's gains in Ukraine seem to have been unlikely to have been met without Wagner, is Wagner powerful enough to make an attempt at a coup?
Could we be looking at a Russian civil war or am I being overly dramatic?

Many experts have felt like Russia is a house of cards that would eventually crumble from within and could do so quickly.

However we shouldn’t kid ourselves, the break-up/civil war within a nuclear armed state is a very dangerous moment.

There's a decent summary of what we know on the bbc website that's been verified. There's further rumours of approaching moscow but that cannot be confirmed

Igotjelly, I have to agree with you. I remember the anxieties around nuclear and bio security in the 1990s when the USSR fell apart.
While I think there may be cause for some optimistic thinking around the end of the war in Ukraine what comes next might not be great either.

Whatever happens, it's unlikely to end well. Best case would be that Wagner overthrow military commanders so Putin could blame the 'Special Military Operation' on them, thus being able to pull out of Ukraine and save face.

I can't see any other way of him exiting after all this time without it being hugely embarrassing to him. Of course Putin being taken out would work, but then that leaves a power vacuum so is it a case of better the devil you know? It is a total shit show being paid for with death and destruction.

The nuclear aspect adds another dimension, but as I remember the whole nuclear thing in the 80s, there's no real point stressing about that, it won't change anything.

Wagner are mercenaries so all that has changed is that the Americans are now paying them more than Putin was.

Wow this is crazy!

I hope Zelensky and co use this opportunity to launch an effective counter attack on them whilst everyone is distracted.

I don't think America can afford them.