Boris Johnson wants a 2nd bash at being PM. We wouldn't. Would we?

[newnamethanks]

Today BJ is stirring up the DUP to oppose Sunak's N Ireland proposals, whatever they may be. Surely there can't be a second chance for the idiot responsible for our current mess? There aren't enough stupid people in our country to let him in again I hope. Will he unseat Sunak?

Miliband's Labour were briefly and only barely ahead in polls about 4 weeks before the election, and that was on top of Cameron still being seen as a more credible leader. To compare it to the 25 point lead Labour now has, and after a whole year of being ahead, isn't useful. The numbers and time-span just aren't the same.

Also, since you bring up Don't Knows, most of them are 2019 tory voters. These Don't Knows are a negative indicator for the conservatives. They're a shift away from them.

18 months is not long enough. The only good thing is that Sunak doesn't have to deliver strictly to Johnson's mandate, but still, what has to happen is that the cost of living crisis abates and people do not feel poor.

Right now there are a lot of former Johnson voters who do feel poor. People will vote on who they think will deliver on the economy- 18 months is not long. What won't be delivered are the big ticket policies that captured the Red Wall. Nor will trade deals be delivered in sufficient numbers.

It could be very likely 1997 - a Labour government picks up from a Conservative government that has made useful changes for an economic boom. But it won't be here in 18 months.

No, the disillusioned Tories are not shifting towards Labour - they are politically homeless with Sunaks civil service governance, they are old Labour supporters that do not trust Starmer with brexit and voted for Boris. They are the old guard furious at being ignored when Truss was voted in and then dispensed with.
These people are not suddenly going to change their minds and imagine Angela Raynor suddenly changing from a Rottweiler to a polished politician. They are treading water and waiting to see what happens.

No, the disillusioned Tories are not shifting towards Labour

I was careful not to say they were shifting towards Labour and yet you still couldn't resist putting those words in my mouth. 😆

Either way, bringing up Don't Knows to defend tory chances is mistaken. These disillusioned abstentions are good news for Labour.

the disillusioned Tories are not shifting towards Labour

The don’t knows aren’t disillusioned Tories, they’re people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019. Disillusioned Tories are people like my bloke who, after voting for them his entire life, thinks they’re a shambles. He’s weighing up whether to stay at home or spoil his paper. When they’ve lost people like him they’re in deep trouble.

But you are talking about now, but the election isn’t now. They can afford to be fed up and disillusioned. Most will vote for conservative when it comes to it, they will worry the country will disappear in debt under a Labour government.

Brexit supporters are also likely to stick with the Tories as no one can forget how anti Brexit Starmer was - one of the leading and most vocal.

The polls are one thing - 18 months to go.
The reality is going to be very different I suspect. Least of all the impending housing crisis that is looming. Any party seen to be weak on immigration is going to struggle after this summer. I am pretty sure Starmer will soon be back peddling on his open door, help yourself to our cheque book mentality.

they will worry the country will disappear in debt under a Labour government.

That’s a joke, right? You do know how much debt the country’s in now? And you can see for yourself how weak this government is on immigration? And you presumably read the papers and know how many people think Brexit was a mistake? You’re about five years out of date.

But you are talking about now, but the election isn’t now

Yes, that's how polling works. Predictions of occurences in the future based on data we have now.

If the data changes, I'll change my predictions.

Anyway, here's another poll from yesterday:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

Labour leads by 28% in the Red Wall, enough to win ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.

Labour 55% (+3)

Conservative 27% (-2)
Reform UK 10% (+2)
Lib Dem 4% (-1)
Green 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 5 Feb

@Blessedwithsunshine Could you be so kind as to explain why after 13 years of Tory government there is still an alleged problem with migrant arrivals?
Given the shortages of staff many employers are reporting I would have thought a surge in migrants would be benefical to the country, do explain if you think I am wrong.

@Blessedwithsunshine Do we have a Labour government at the moment?
Someone worried about national debt might be concerned that we have higher taxes than we have ever had in peacetime and that debt has sky rocketed under this government for the past 13 years.

This is an excellent summary 👏

A major turning point, and it's been consistent for a few months now, is when labour polled better than the cons on immigration.

Surprisingly, you can't keep going on about how awful boats in the Channel are and then do nothing about them without the voters you deliberately riled up turning their anger on you.

We have council elections shortly. I predict Tory nominees won't even bother to turn up for the count.

Do feel free to provide a link to where Starmer has said that he supports uncontrolled immigration. You're continuing to embarrass yourself Bless.

You're attempting to reason with someone who appears naive and brainwashed.

The likes of those people persist in embarrassing themselves. They seemingly can't help it.

This poll is a week old but only published today. Coudl be wrong but I think that's the first time Labour has cracked 50% with YouGov. Still, "iT's aLL tO PlaY FoR!"

YouGov
@YouGov
Latest Westminster voting intention (14-15 Feb)

Con: 22% (-2 from 8-9 Feb)
Lab: 50% (+3)
Lib Dem: 9% (-1)
Reform UK: 7% (+1)
Green: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)

The trouble is, I remember when MN were absolutely convinced it was going to be a JC landslide.

The polls didn’t support that at any point. I think you’re misremembering. There were a lot of Labour voters like me who couldn’t vote for a Corbyn government, the phase politically homeless was bandied about a lot.

I am most definitely not misremembering.

Mumsnetters are not pollsters. If the polls had showed JC almost 30 points ahead you might have a point.

Going back to the point of the thread - it looks more likely, not less, with consistent poor polling that one way or another Johnson will replace Sunak.

For those celebrating a Labour victory - premature springs to mind. Life is politically interesting these days. Gone are the grey minds with matching grey suits and a checked out nation. People seem to care more now - which is a good thing regardless of how you vote.

I also predict a May bloodbath for the Tories

Do you have amnesia or have are you simply erasing the fact the last Labour government left us literally penniless with a note in the treasure box to confirm - yes do you remember 2008?

Covid has cause me our current debts not overspending!!!

Going back to the point of the thread - it looks more likely, not less, with consistent poor polling that one way or another Johnson will replace Sunak.

Bring it on. I'd be happy for Johnson to have the chance to properly lose an election and have no-one else to blame.

Covid has cause me our current debts not overspending!!!

The failed Test and Trace, faulty PPE contracts and Covid loans fraud and errors did indeed cost the country a lot of money.

The trouble is it is a yougov poll. And we all know that yougov was set up by the left wing economic establishment to make the Tories look bad.