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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To wonder why nobody is talking about the excess death rates

306 replies

Sotiredofallthisnonsense · 18/02/2023 09:39

That's all really. It's not just the UK - so NHS and strikes etc won't account for similar or significantly worse death rates in other areas of the developed West.

There is very very little media attention on this. Am I being unreasonable to wonder why?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
17
Everyonehasavoice · 20/02/2023 12:31

Onnabugeisha · 20/02/2023 06:44

Yes, it’s ASMR for all deaths not excess deaths.
I posted upthread the ASMR for excess deaths with explanation.

So your chart has no bearing on mortuaries having increased demand as is being claimed.

And by looking at the figures and charts it is clear we are ‘not where we should be’. It’s not going down.

OSR use the original research data from the ONS ( where all my
figures come from)
I have gone back to the original source and not relied on another companies ( osr) opinion.

At least we agree vaccines had a positive impact but we are not going to agree about excess deaths. Even though the govn have recognised it.

With all of this information available here I’m hoping the OP can make his/ her own judgement.

Hopefully OP we’ve given you lots to concider.

Onnabugeisha · 20/02/2023 15:00

@Everyonehasavoice
And by looking at the figures and charts it is clear we are ‘not where we should be’. It’s not going down.

Thats because you are looking at the wrong figures and the wrong charts.

This thread is about excess deaths, not all deaths. All your ONS figures and charts on mortality and ASMR are not regarding excess deaths but regarding all deaths.

Furthermore, it’s no good looking at the number of excess deaths alone, the excess death ASMR is the measure you want because that is excess deaths adjusted for the age and size of the population and then bumped against a rolling five year average.

The excess deaths ASMRs are in fact going down and are a bit below where we should be. The chart tracks it by month below, but when averaged out over all of 2022:
“ONS reports that when looking at the excess mortality in 2022 overall, deaths were 6.3% above average, whereas ASMRs were 0.7% below average.”

So the 6.3% increase in the raw number of excess deaths for 2022 we can safely ignore as not statistically significant because the ASMR for excess deaths is actually -0.7%.

This means excess deaths are 0.7% below the rolling five year average measured in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021.

By the way, the OSR isn’t a company, they are the UK Government regulatory arm that ensures ONS is doing its job correctly. So technically, they are a better source than ONS and they are not showing “opinions” but statistical facts.

To wonder why nobody is talking about the excess death rates
Onnabugeisha · 20/02/2023 15:05

Everyonehasavoice · 19/02/2023 21:37

Heres some figures re ASMR for England and Wales.
The study was looking at winter deaths so it’s not up to Feb2023 only Dec2022.
Generally ASMR has been coming down for a long time, better health care, nutrition, less smoking etc. But it had been slightly levelling off more recently and was expected to continue to do so.

Again. This ASMR is regarding ALL DEATHS, not excess deaths.

APodofWildOrca · 20/02/2023 15:12

Is not just UK is it. I read this interesting article in the Atlantic. Apparently ICU in the US are typically much busier now than two years ago - but not people with Covid. Busier with every type of issue that people typically end up in ICU with.

It seems to be a global phenomenon.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/icu-doctor-how-covid-wave-different/673082/

Cottagecheeseisnotcheese · 20/02/2023 16:54

the point of standardised excess deaths is that it accounts for rising population if your population goes up by a million, you would expect 10,000 extra deaths from that extra 1 million
so if you have a population of 65 million and 650,000 deaths
then 3 years later you have 66 million and 660,000 deaths that is 10,000 extra deaths but the rate of death is exactly the same as before 1 in a 100
however if you have a population of 66 million and 657,000 there are 7000 extra deaths compare dto before but the death rate has actually decreased to 1 in 100.5

Thekirit · 21/02/2023 00:34

Seeing a real problem here too OP
You would think after all the problems during covid the country would have created a workable set up for when we have surges in deaths.
Christmas and January were bad and expected but there doesn’t seem to be any let up.

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