the experience of the vast majority of the trans community - who are also a target for abuse from males
Firstly, no such evidence exists of any trans people experiencing abuse from males. Indeed and in fact, many gay men and also trans women have said they don't get any abuse from men in male change rooms, the worst they might get is a smirk. Trans women are safe in male spaces, so stop propagating the lie they aren't. And even if, as unlikely it is that a trans women experiences abuse, that is THE MALE PROBLEM TO SOLVE. Women, are NOT HUMAN SHIELDS FOR MEN.
YOU might feel safer with men with penises in your spaces, than women, an illogical statement, but as a rape victim, I, do NOT.
I understand from some of the articles linked here that there are exceptions
Womens spaces were CREATED based on worst case scenario. Safeguarding is based on that one exception. Which is why 'male' and 'female' spaces are segregated. Even an 'exception', even one, just even one, is justifications. Even one (1) attack is one too many.
we have very little hard data about how common this actually is
There is more than enough data that trans women commit offences at a HIGH RATE than male identifying men. fairplayforwomen.com/criminality/
committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/pdf/
There have been in excess of 20 sex assaults on women by male bodies in womens spaces - HOW MANY MORE DO YOU NEED? Give us a number.