@BerriesOnTop
They could at the very least stop saying they’ll end drilling (as Biden said recently) and give out more licenses, including on federal lands (where they are happy to let beef cattle graze but god forbid we open it up to drilling …)
Biden and a lot of gov’ts are less the bottleneck. They’ve been talking tough about reducing FFs for years, but nothing has seriously been done about that. The lack of investment is down to investor worries after the fracking revolution sank the oil market and then caused OPEC to get jitters. They then suffered thru COVID, only to find that funds were no longer happy to keep throwing money at something that wasn’t returning any profit.
For the NOCs, well, let me know if you think Russia and Saudi Arabia are reducing output because they cannot get financing or they have ESG saboteurs in their midst.
Most of the IOCs have consolidated assets because they’re not cost effective with current market prices, and that has only just changed. But if you look at the maximum tolerable prices the economy can take, they are the rock against the lower limit price the producer can tolerate, the hard place. That margin is being squeezed to the point that there is no reason for anyone to invest in excess capacity without massive taxpayer subsidies. Historically in the US, when 5% or more of spending is on energy such as oil, a recession or depression occurs.
You are going to need a source for that. Plenty of oil, gas and coal to be exploited, as long as we have the capacity to refine it. It does take time from discovery to extraction, but that’s why we need to double down on it now and not let our energy infrastructure further wither away.
I already have. You’re either being wilfully dense or just not reading my replies. The number of discoveries have been falling for DECADES. Go on, blame Biden and ESG. I’m sure the oil majors are just not looking hard enough, right? You’re sounding like those people thinking the North Sea has mass untapped potential that the filthy hippies are holding us back from embracing. Too bad the actual data shows you’re wrong. Grant all the licences you want. No one is going to return us to 1999 levels of production. Ask Norway too if you think it’s the Brits being slack.
Again, that’s not what peak oil, or peak any resource, is about. Venezuela has the most oil of any nation on Earth, with Canada not far behind. If you cannot extract it fast enough, it is utterly irrelevant. The moon of Titan has literal oceans of hydrocarbons. So what? Extraction rates matter, not reserves (which can be totally bogus, just check the Rystad data or BP WEO values for the likes of Saudi over the last 70 years to see how badly fudged).
And you’re also ignoring the exergy cost, which I have already linked a paper to. Good luck extracting that oil if it costs one barrel to get one barrel produced. Compare Spindletop to Thunder Horse. Let me know if you see a problem here. I’ll wait.
And because of my experience in China breathing in smog, I don’t particularly like coal and I don’t want ICE engines in urban areas (wouldn’t ban them though). But as I said, I would rather breathe it down than freeze in winter. I’m sure most feel that way.
And maybe moving those plants do nothing for climate change, but they are a huge win for human respiratory health. That’s nothing to sniff at.
I forgot particulates only stay around the source. How silly of me to think things like trade winds could bring forest fire fumes or Chernobyl fallout to places outside their point of origin. What a win.
Additionally, pretty funny you find respiratory health to be a concern, but not whether the planet will be able to support modern civilisation. What are you going to do when the plant yields get clobbered by erratic growing season and lead to mass starvation as is becoming readily apparent now?
And I’m sorry you are a doomer on nuclear because that’s the only energy source that can possibly replace fossil fuels when it comes to electricity generation. I’m ofc fine with continuing to burn fossil fuels, but I wouldn’t mind a transition to nuclear for the cleaner air.
Are you just fabricating this weird image of me frothing at the mouth against things for no reason? You do know why I pointed out nuclear isn’t saving us, right? Like, you actually grasp how building several times the total capacity of nukes currently in existence every couple of years is literally impossible?
You remind me of an apocalyptic preacher, who when wrong on the date of doom will just move the day further in the future.
Yeah, except I seem to have data supporting my side of things, while you’re telling me “lol just still baby drill” like someone who never cracked open a petro-geology or thermodynamics textbook.
Or, y’know, basic arithmetic.