Ben Chu AT BenChu_
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations.
Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn.
HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
...so still leaves £38bn hole to get debt falling as share of GDP in three years.
Assume that favourable market reaction to U-turns lowers Gilt yields and interest rates by 1% - takes around £10bn off fiscal hole...
...still implies £28bn fiscal hole & £28bn of spending cuts.
So the question for markets: are those cuts politically deliverable by Hunt/Truss?
Worth noting that the NI hike reversal and the stamp duty cuts in the #miniBudget were costed by HMT at around £17bn a year by 2026-27 - surely a reversal of those (in the end) can't be ruled out too if spending cuts deemed politically impossible
Early indications are the market is reacting well. If you reverse the NI hike reversal and stamp duty cuts, that leaves a hole of £11 billion.
Thats bad. But '£11 billion bad' is not '£70 billion bad', though.
So however you spin this budget, it is better for us all. But still shit. And didn't need to happen.