Boris no confidence vote…he’s going to win isn’t he?

[BadAtMaths2]

Spineless MPs….then he’ll limp along doing even more attention seeking stunts.

I didn't know Blair was facing a vote of no confidence tonight.

...always the same "......bbbbbut Labour"

Sadly without even having to ask or wonder we know what our local mps vote will be. She couldn't be further up his backside and lies to tell him what our town thinks of him. She was even called out on it during a live interview by the interviewer who knew it was bullshit. She's only ever seen if there's a photoshoot, cameras or top tory visiting and is horrendously unpopular herself.

Her response is to double down harder now and she's become a private secretary for him 🤦🏻‍♀️

They are. Having a PM that rich with a spouse who chose not to pay tax in the UK, during a massive cost of living crisis, is asking for trouble because of the way it's going to be presented. There is no way the Tories will go for that, hands Labour far too much of an open goal. Rishi's missed his chance.

The people saying there’s no decent alternative….. really?? Are people so in love with this moral vacuum that they think he’s the best on offer? I’m saying there’s an array of sparkling candidates but come on, pretty much anything is better than Boris.

Discussion on R4 Today suggests that the Tory Party are ruthless enough to change the rules if Johnson wins but by a small margin and the Tories get slammed in the upcoming by elections.

Yes, he will win. He is good at them! It is almost as though he bribes his friends to organise one for a confidence boost as required!

Probably will win, but it will show how out of touch the Tories are and also how they are lacking in any morals.

I wish we could have a boring Prime Minister who just wants to do a good job and actually believes in something other than greed.

So as of tonight we will have a wounded Prime Minister in charge of the massive economic and societal shitshow he's already created.

If the Tories haven't got a succession planned, then they bloody should have. 'One Nation Conservatives' my arse.

I think Sunak's ship has sailed- his huge popularity I think came from the combination of giving people a lot of free money (the right thing to do) during Covid and the fact that he was one of the few politicians who was capable of addressing the public in those early Covid days without looking as if he was about to shit himself. There was a huge leadership gap in Spring 2020 and people were really desperate to feel that someone was on top of what was happening. Sunak filled that role well.

Now, I think he's less popular due to the fact we're in more normal times and the country is pretty screwed economically. I couldn't care less about his wife's tax affairs, providing they're legal, but I think the fact that he didn't foresee the issue speaks to a lack of experience and political judgement.

I think he will win, but trying to find a positive to it, it will just further cement how bad, embarrassing and downright incapable he is as PM. First one to break the law in office, multiple fines, a vote of confidence... and he's still pathetically clinging on. I think he's also further ruining the Tory party (hooray!) while he refuses to go.

How long do they need !

Yeah, he'll survive. MPs know he's a wrong 'un, but they'll lack the guts to give him the boot in the name of party unity or some bullshit.

To the average person who doesn't take it upon themselves to find out all the who's who's in politics there's no obvious replacement and no really big/attractive characters in opposition either. Where are they? Who are they?

Each one seems as dodgy/weird as the next at the moment, and the only 'names' we all know are seem to be because of negative press.

With Boris seeming to be the most unpopular PM in years how come Labour's leader is so ... i don't know, flat and inconspicuous? With the conservatives in this state it's Labour's chance to grab voters but i can tell you, voting apathy is v strong in our family and we wont be the only ones.

Yes, the 'no vote for a year' rule was casually created and can be casually changed.

Thatcher and May won these votes and went well within the year.

Just the payroll votes (if they all follow convention) will get him close to 180 votes, but he'll be fatally wounded regardless, just depends how long it takes for him to bleed out.

I've just emailed my Tory MP. Hope she has stronger morals than Mr Johnson

Actually I think the Common Garden Tory MPs and local Conservative groups had a really really hard time on the doorsteps in the recent local elections because of Johnson and are probably furious with him. This has gone down really badly in the old 'red wall' areas, many which were under some of the most strictest lockdown restrictions in autumn/winter 2020.

I wouldn't be surprised if they see their political futures in those areas being dependent on being able to say that they voted to get rid of Johnson.

I'm amazed anyone thinks Gove might be in the running though. My feeling is that he is having to be very carefully managed by the party at the moment due to some personal issues.

I think your suspicions are not to be sniffed at.

A reminder that however much loyal MPs parrot it, the line 'boris got the big calls right' goes down badly with voters: twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1524664127838474240

Better for him to stay in power and limp along for two years, destoying any chance of the Tory's getting in after GE, than them replacing him with someone who will keep all the sneaky shit they get up to hidden away.

Of course he'll win, and then try to bolster public support with more bonkers populist policies. Like selling off Housing Association stock. The whole sector will be fucked up - staff and tenants alike - just to save his sorry skin.

Don't forget that lots of HAs also run women's refuges and temporary accommodation for vulnerable people. The idea of essential services like those being run down by a Tory government is horrifying. But it will happen because Johnson wants to cling onto power.

How long do you think that will take?

I really think doesn’t matter. This is a VONC, not yet leadership challenge stage. And it sets the path towards finding a new Tory leader anyway.

I hope Boris wins the VONC and further shafts the Tories while he clings on until the next GE.

If he lost and resigned, then it still gives the Tories time to find and groom a suitable leader sadly.

people are making this about Boris, but for me, this is about the Conservatives. They’re a nasty party and Boris just shows them up for it.

That is a great letter. If all Tories behaved like this, they'd never be out of power.

Watching clips of that MN interview, what always surprises me watching Johnson is how this supposed master bullshitter is so amazingly awful at bullshitting. He answers any accusations like a naughty 10 year old of average IQ caught red handed. The fact this man of bang average intelligence and zero character and morals could become PM should easily be considered as worrying as Trump’s rise. Banning private schools seems extreme, but how else to explain how these average numbnuts with posh accents keep ringing to the top? Ideologically I oppose it, but it may have to be done in our national interest of survival as a reasonably affluent and functioning nation.