Will Labour ever get back in?

[Blueblossompinksky]

My understanding is that the labour majority was in part because of the Scottish vote, which seems to have gone to the SNP.

I realise it’s unlikely that the Tories will get back in with such a large majority as 2019 but will there actually be enough seats for Labour to win?

RE Scotland, I agree with Cazziebo.

Scotland has 59 seats (reduced to 57 in 2023) out of 650 in the HOC. The SNP won 48 seats in 2019, vs Conservatives’ 365 and Labour’s 203. Had every SNP seat gone to Labour, it would have been LAB 252, CON 365 - still a clear Conservatives majority. If Labour had won EVERY seat in Scotland, it's still a clear CON majority (361 CON to 262 LAB). This would hold true even if every single person eligible to vote in Scotland showed up and voted Labour.

But the SNP winning seats only damages Labour in a UK General Election if no party has a majority. Then the number of seats won determines which party has first rights to form a minority or coalition government - e.g., 2010 when, arguably, EITHER CON or LAB could have formed and led a workable coalition government but CON had the first opportunity due to winning the highest number of seats. The problem now is, Labour isn’t anywhere close to competing with the Conservatives UK-wide (no matter how Scotland votes). Labour have to win back vote(r)s from the Conservatives; there's no other way.

@FrancesGumm

I agree - I will be asking any Labour canvassers again for their definition on ‘what is a woman’ …

Do you know what? I’m actually over this now. I want a government that isn’t corrupt, isn’t handing my money over to its multi millionaire mates and funds decent services. There’s no way I’ll vote against that because they “don’t know what a woman is”. It’s one issue and even as a gender critical cis woman I can swallow that issue to get the right result on a multitude of others. Philosophers call it utilitarianism.

Serious question; Has anyone asked Boris what definition of a women is?

GB News did. He did his usual waffle and bluster about "dignity for everyone" and refused to say that only women have a cervix.

sadly, No not while they are so immersed in gender ideology assuming don't know what a women is. single sex spaces, sports for women etc. are disappearing , it will just turn 'most ' people off. I mean how many of us really think we have the identity of a man or women - I'm mean 14 -19 year old me, would defo had been Non binary, in todays world that would mean I'd end up wanting my breasts cut off! It's a massive disservice what we are doing to woman and our young. Well that's my opinion and why, having been a labour voter all my life, I won't be voting for them anymore,

@Acheyknees

Not until they change their entire front bench.

This.

Bunch of utter clowns. When are they going to realise optics matter?!

Surely, surely someone in their party must see they need to have more convincing leaders than wibbly Starmer and bellowing Rayner to have a cat in hells chance of ever being credible.

@FrancesGumm

I agree - I will be asking any Labour canvassers again for their definition on ‘what is a woman’ …

The lib dems knocked at my door yesterday, and I told them that I won't be voting for them as they don't know what a women is. TBF the younger of the two men, said he understood the issue and agreed with me, the older one just banged on about how his daughters friend (19/20) was non binary and needed top surgery and how expensive it was, I told him to call it what is was, a double mastectomy and how can he justify men in women sports etc. anyhoo, mad world we seem to live in now.

@Florenz

Things would have to get REALLY bad for Labour to get in. They have driven away so many of their core supporters in an attempt to appeal to a very small number of activists, and I have absolutely no idea why. They need to be as far away from "woke" as possible as it is electoral poison.

This !

Good god I hope not!

I don't think labour realise how damaging the line TWAW is to them

That's the nature of those holding extreme positions though; they're so wedded to their preferred "cause" that reality doesn't stand a chance

Much the same applies to the Tories, except they favour corruption instead of minorities, but they also have an 80 majority and while it may get dented I don't see it being overturned unless people feel there's something good to vote for, instead of just "less bad"

Philosophers call it utilitarianism.

What's "utilitarian" is in the eye of the beholder. Your vote is your own.

@raspberryjamchicken

Every thread about voting Labour is immediately taken over by posters who say they wouldn't vote for them on the basis of definition of a woman. I consider myself a feminist and am concerned about things like safe spaces for women but I would still vote Labour as I have other priorities when I vote.

I would be interested to know if there has been any actual polling on whether this issue would in fact lead to a reduction of numbers voting Labour. I never hear anyone say anything about it in real life and wonder if the number of people in demographics outside of MN who would actively choose to vote Labour because of their stance on trans rights would outweigh those who wouldn't? Presumably the Labour Party itself think so.

I definitely won't, I'm north London based, having said that my friend very much aligned with my thoughts on women has a said that she probably would still vote them, and I have other friend that probably would too, I won't though -100%, I'll either not vote, which pains me, or vote Tory, which pains me even more. I have joined the social democrats party though, so maybe they can grow out of this shit show.

No chance with nationalists being so successful in Scotland. Sturgeon is unpleasantly exclusionary and will take every opportunity to further her independence agenda. So no, we're doomed

@Ereshkigalangcleg

Philosophers call it utilitarianism.

What's "utilitarian" is in the eye of the beholder. Your vote is your own.

It’s a recognised classical normative theory. It’s not in anyone’s eye. What a weird thing to pick on!

@maltravers

Raspberryjamchicken The current balance of rights issue is not something I would discuss outside my family as it causes such vitriol. It will probably determine my vote though, even though I would usually vote labour. I don’t see it as a niche issue myself. A friend told me last week that half her dd’s class are now saying they are trans. Puberty is a confusing time. Some of these young girls may harm their bodies with blockers/hormones/surgery. At the same time women are supposed to accept male bodied people into women’s sports, baking in failure for women and deterring their participation. Trans people should be treated with dignity and respect but so should women. Calling me a vagina haver is not treating me with dignity and respect. Denying sick women female only spaces in hospitals is giving precedence to others’ feelings over women’s safety and ability to recuperate. That’s before you consider the wider implications of the acceptance of totalitarian thinking, the witch hunting, the threats. How can we turn a blind eye to this and condone it? If Labour would promise a mature discussion how to balance these rights, and safeguard children, rather than behaving like terrified hostages, I would vote for them.

Well put!

I will be asking any Labour canvassers again for their definition on ‘what is a woman’

You need to ask it of all candidates @FrancesGumm. You can not assume your candidate's or indeed the Conservative Party view.

It’s a recognised classical normative theory.

Yes I know what it is who gets to decide where the greatest happiness or harm is?

@Ilovesooty
Saying that the Conservatives havent done anything about single people having to pay 75% of their Council Tax bill doesnt change the fact that The Labour Party did nothing about this when they were in Power. All about "working families" what about those of us working but single? This was the Labour Party ffs.

I honestly don't know who to vote for. We have local council elections this week. I'm more left than right, but I'm not voting for a party who can't correctly define the word woman.

I should vote Labour. I agree in principle that the Labour Party should represent working people.

Problem for me, is, Jeremy Corbyn couldn't control the antisemitism in the party, and the fudged his opinion on Brexit. Keir Starmer is Blair-like but without the personality, and loves a good bandwagon to jump on.

Labour needs a leader that can speak equally with the people, who can balance the books enough to benefit the proletariat, that is not afraid to talk about difficult issues, who has the bravery to HOLD AN OPINION and not alienate people, and to root out inequality and racism within the party.

I can't think of anyone who fits that bill, unfortunately.

Not with my help. Not until they work out what a woman is, anyway. Until then they can have the TRA vote.

Putin backs Boris's criminals so anything is possible

I get that Labour not knowing what a woman is is pretty bad. I mean, sex is pretty easy to get, male or female. That's all there is to it. Gender is where it gets confusing.

But I'm not sure the tories even know what people are anymore. You can keep kidding yourselves that Labour would be worse, but would they? I dunno, how can it get worse right now? National insurance is going up, food prices are going up, council tax will be going up (to whatever they want in Scotland, thanks snp), petrol prices are rising, energy prices are rising. What will it take for the tories to be taken out? Can they ask people to sacrifice your first born and they'll be OK with it? Beginning to think that's true these days. They get away with anything. They don't treat us like people, they treat us like scum on the bottom of their shoes. They use our money to live their pockets and their friends pockets, and don't give a shit that we get poorer.

Which is worse? In the grand scheme of things? The tory way is pushing us to poverty. Would Labour do better? Who knows but it couldn't get worse.

Trouble is that the opposition benches are stuffed full of MPs who, no matter what their party's future stance on TWAW, are on record talking complete nonsense. Every interviewer for the rest of their career can cast doubt on anything they say by bringing this up.

I'm with @Blossomtoes on this.

I hope the Tories don't get back in , two years is a long time to put up with the current savage cost of living increases.
I think I much prefer Keir Starmer's atitude towards women rather than Boris Johnson's IRL .
Do we need to "allow" either of these two men to tell us what a woman is ?
I don't.