It's not WW3

[TheRealityCheque]

To wish people would stop conflating the Ukrainian invasion with WW3.

It's shite and completely unacceptable and my thoughts are with thee innocent people affected but it is not a world war and isn't going to become one.

IABU - WW3 is here
IANBU - it's a localised war.

My DS1 predicted ages ago that WW3 would cancel GCSEs. I'm not sure he realised that he would be drafted instead.

Last week there was a thread full of people saying there wouldn't be a war, it was all willy-waving by Putin. Lots of people on here seem keen to downplay the severity and hopefully it will be short-lives. However, listening to the various military experts and historians interviewed on the radio today, there is a high level of concern. Even if other countries are not physically involved in the conflict, there will be knock on economic and security effects around the world. It's probably unlikely Putin would be foolish enough to invade Latvia or other NATO members, but nothing can be ruled out by him.

Also watch China's reaction. Some people think that depending on how things play out in Russia, China will use the opportunity to invade Taiwan.

@raspberryjamchicken yes I'm worried about China too. And Russia's relationship with China

I don't suppose anyone said when Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated 'oh here we go it's a world war.' After all what the heck did it have to do with us. It's alliances that make it into a bigger conflict and it's pretty tough for the west to stand by and see an innocent democracy just be invaded for no reason and as others have said the NATO countries bordering it may feel compelled to act to protect their borders.

However I don't think anyone wants it to escalate - there have been some pretty bitter experiences as a result of multi nation conflict. At the same time how far will Nato be to stand idly by if a Srebrenica style massacre were to happen. I'm not saying that would happen. But how far can we let Russia stomp around occupying other nations re-introducing the iron curtain? What were the consequences of letting Hitler invade Sudetenland without challenge, because it had nothing to do with us? I'm not sure history has looked kindly on that Chamberlain decision.

I'm consumed with it all today. Anyone else been slated in real life for being 'too' concerned?

@Deliberateplanning

I'm consumed with it all today. Anyone else been slated in real life for being 'too' concerned?

Yes. My husband got so annoyed when I first heard of coronavirus and went off on this anxious path that everything was about to go to shit and he insisted I was being dramatic! He said the same to me today about this and I got a horrible de ja vu feeling.

It will probably go on for years.

I'm absolutely terrified that we will face a nuclear war.

How could this actually end? Like what are the possible outcomes here? Are any of them good?

It's probably unlikely Putin would be foolish enough to invade Latvia or other NATO members, but nothing can be ruled out by him.

I have a kickstarter working for me who's only 19. Already nearly 1/8th of their life has been marred by Covid. And their father is Latvian. So despite the doom and gloom here, IRL I am as supportive as possible ...

(I once heard two students discussing some work and one said "IRL you'd do this ...")

I'm not sure history has looked kindly on that Chamberlain decision.

It bought us precious months. But then he was the sort of politician that would put his country first and was willing to shred his legacy for the sake of peace.

Boris Johnson ? Anyone who believes he has anything but Boris Johnson as a priority is just hopelessly dim.

I think you are being incredibly naive OP.

It will not stop with Ukraine. Russia (Putin) will push forward into Eastern Europe, and into NATO nations, which will mean that under the guidelines of NATO, other NATO nations are compelled to act.

Then it will be WW3

The actions of the west at this moment in time is not to protect Ukraine, but to try and attempt that pushing forward to happen.

I fear that the outcome of all of this is inevitable. Putin is insane. He is fighting a war he can not win, but he will take nations down with him.

@Kassle

Putin just threatened to nuke any country that helps Ukraine it's very serious.

That really means nothing, the whole point of having nuclear weapons is to scare other countries into thinking you might use them if provoked.

NATO would not be taking him seriously if he hadn't threatened it. Anyone can make a threat like that.

He's a bully and they're all mouth and no trousers. Unfortunately no one wants to test that theory.

I disagree I think he will.

Well that escalated quickly - from foot tapping as an indicator of invasive intentions to conscription and cannibalism... I really hope Putin's aspirations don't escalate as dramatically as the average mumsnet thread

@Sirzy

I think it has the potential to become much bigger than just a localised war. Putin doesn’t seem to care what happens in persuit of what he wants and that is worrying.

I agree with this.

This has every chance of turning into ww3 with a man like putin in charge of this utter shit show.

It's absolutely heartbreaking!

You've got a very narrow minded view of the full potential and implications of this situation.

I think that no-one will intervene and it’ll drag on for years and everyone will forget about it (and the poor Ukrainians)

I’m not feeling as confident as you are op

The pace this has happened today is frightening. He is laying down is legacy and I very much doubt Putin will be happy to stop with Ukraine.

@notsurehowtostop

How could this actually end? Like what are the possible outcomes here? Are any of them good?

War in Ukraine goes on for years, is eventually a Russian state. Putin stops there, Belarus and Khasikstan join the new USSR voluntarily.

Wear in Ukraine goes on for years, is eventually a Russian state. Belarus and Khasikstan join the new USSR voluntarily, Putin then takes on a NATO state, and NATO respond.

War in Ukraine goes on for years. Russia is crippled economically, the people of Russia and Ukraine live in horrific poverty and it's a humanitarian crisis for years.

No good options I'm afraid.

Well report says a NATO ship was hit earlier...

What then?

I think massive propaganda need's to roll out to these Russian soldiers...

We know you don't believe in this war, you know we are free and you have to live under a dictator, drop your arms!

Or the silly mastiff

The Russian people are finally pushed too far by their tzar And they rise up and Chuck him out.
Supported by top brass

@Tigersonvaseline

Or the silly mastiff

The Russian people are finally pushed too far by their tzar And they rise up and Chuck him out.
Supported by top brass

They've arrested 750 people today for protesting. They have state run media and propeaganda machines.

Hitler wasn't toppled by his own people. History has taught us, that in these situations the resident people have no power either through brainwashing or threat of death. Putin is a mad man, he loved the KGB obviously, he'd have no issue putting brass in the skulls of those that didn't agree with him. I can't see a Russian Revolution coming any time soon. The iron curtain is too strong.

But nevertheless it's an option and I'll give you that.

Let's hope your right op.
If troops are sent in from UK, US or nato get involved then no one knows where it will end. Putin has stated if anyone trys to stop him there will be consequences and are these countries gonna really stand by and watch people be killed for no reason at all.

Everybody's talking about NATO nations being invaded but ignores the fact that some countries in Eastern Europe had been rather friendly with the Russians. With Russia taking over Ukraine, being right on their doorstep, do we expect those countries to fight?

@Undecicive

Everybody's talking about NATO nations being invaded but ignores the fact that some countries in Eastern Europe had been rather friendly with the Russians. With Russia taking over Ukraine, being right on their doorstep, do we expect those countries to fight?

Could you tell me which countries 'Eastern Europe' are 'friendly with the Russians' and haven't already had Russian troops based there this week?