It's not WW3

[TheRealityCheque]

To wish people would stop conflating the Ukrainian invasion with WW3.

It's shite and completely unacceptable and my thoughts are with thee innocent people affected but it is not a world war and isn't going to become one.

IABU - WW3 is here
IANBU - it's a localised war.

@Georgeskitchen

So we've had 2 years of social media certified virologists, now here come the military experts!!

Not sure about expert, but I spent a lot of the early 80s cramming up on nuclear physics and fully expecting war to break out before 1990. Hence going on CND marches and the like.

I can get the science behind the stats of virology. But I can get nuclear physics better. TL;DR is that nuclear weapons aren't very nice.

I won’t choose either. I think it is a localised war with potential to spread into a wider war. Even if the war stays only in Ukraine we will all feel the impact on the economy.

Also I think Putin is the type of narcissistic dictator that could go all out. It wouldn’t be logical, but often dictatorships aren’t logical.

From my (admittedly limited knowledge) this seems extremely unlikely to become WW3 right now and I don't believe that is the aim of this invasion.

Putin invaded Ukraine because it's non-NATO and has things he wants. He knows NATO is not going to go out of their way to jump to Ukraine's aid, so he's flexing to see what the response will be and how far he can push things.

If he makes moves on the Baltic states, probably that would spark a major conflict because NATO will step in (Biden's already sent troops) but that is still unlikely to become a worldwide conflict because Russia will not have enough allies to make that a possibility.

It seems like world powers are aware that this move on the Ukraine has been on the cards for a while so it's not some massive surprise that Russia has done this. There's a reason Ukraine is not in NATO and a lot of it is to do with the tension that would escalate because NATO knows Putin wants Ukraine. Moldova will likely be next and then NATO is going to have a lot more to say because Russia will be rubbing up against NATO countries.

If you're easily offended skip this bit, but: For all the super sneery people on this thread putting down people who don't believe this is WW3 and asking if they know something the sneery people don't: we're all speculating whichever opinion we hold, but there are tons of books and other resources out there on how the world powers play together and which territories are wanted by other countries and why that will shed a lot of insight onto this situation. If you think this came out of nowhere and is Putin trying to start WW3, then yes, other people may well know something you don't and maybe you could try doing some research instead of wallowing in fearmongering. Tim Marshall's books in particular are very engaging and fun to read from a geopolitics standpoint for a start.

When Germany allied with Austria nobody thought WW2 was on the way, when Germany anexxed part of czechoslovakia nobody thought WW2 was on the way. It was not until the invasion of Poland did things start to heat up but again WW2 was not predicted.

Look at Russia over the last decade and tell me you don't see history repeating itself.

It's allied with Belarus
It's anexxed Crimea
It's invaded Ukraine.

I don't personally believe WW3 is on the way, but I can definitely see why some people feel history is repeating itself.

Don't think it's ww3 but it's yet another lesson in how appeasement doesn't work.. What the solution is I don't know. Certainly the answer is not letting Russia invade and determine what it's independent neighbours can do , set up russian friendly govts etc.

But it's hard to see what stops Putin other than direct military action ...

And if you don't stop him, then what comes next...

@marieantoinehairnet

He sits still but his feet tap furiously, the man is dangerous

I hadn’t noticed. I will look. 😏

No one thought shooting Franz Ferdinand would lead to WWI. Give it time and watch China. They are already flying sorties over Taiwan.

Option 3, it's a localised war. So far.

@TellMeMoreHellebore

I do not have a crystal ball but I know the USA, the eu and of course the U.K. won't do anything that affects economic activity in the medium to long term - the world is a different interconnected place we money talks. Ukraine simply isn't important enough for countries to take longer term measures, Germany looks set to veto our proposal to close down payments

Maybe we could start with getting UK financial institutions to not accept money from oligarchs. If they can manage to do that then that would be a start.

Personally I'm more curious as to Chinas silence. Is this the internecine conflict that will see them emerge as the only game in town ?

I do not have a crystal ball but I know the USA, the eu and of course the U.K. won't do anything that affects economic activity in the medium to long term

If the US can profit from war, then it will. See: WW2.

Having in recent time been repeatedly told in sneering superior tones on Mumsnet that Brexit would not happen, that the Tories would not win the most recent election and that there would not be a global pandemic caused by Covid, I await your special insider knowledge which has lead to this post OP?
Nostradamus predicts the start of WW3 this spring, with famine and hunger leading to cannibalism. I'd go with his predictions over yours OP.

Oh well then, Nostradamus and cannibalism. Jolly good.

Everyone feeling calmer I hope

@MonStylo

Everyone feeling calmer I hope

Well you gotta larf ...

I’d have had an even more visceral reaction to the election result if I’d realised it would end in me snacking on my neighbour

@MonStylo

Everyone feeling calmer I hope

@MonStylo

Everyone feeling calmer I hope

🤣

I am just dumbfounded at some of the comments on threads at the moment.

From considering who will be drafted, to the gory details of nuclear attack to WW3.

It's so sensationalist and I feel like some people are posting because they actually like the fear-mongering and are excited by it.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand about it, but 80% of what is being posted is just statements with no info or knowledge to back it up or soundbites from the media.

@DGRossetti

Personally I'm more curious as to Chinas silence. Is this the internecine conflict that will see them emerge as the only game in town ?

I feel the same. They are the puppet master for sure.

@Sunflowersinthewind

I am just dumbfounded at some of the comments on threads at the moment.

From considering who will be drafted, to the gory details of nuclear attack to WW3.

It's so sensationalist and I feel like some people are posting because they actually like the fear-mongering and are excited by it.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand about it, but 80% of what is being posted is just statements with no info or knowledge to back it up or soundbites from the media.

I know. We're all having an 80s revival. Great isn't it ?

@MonStylo

Oh well then, Nostradamus and cannibalism. Jolly good.

I’ll start ripping the doors off to board the windows. 😏 Though I might have a dram first. 🥃

Nostradamus has been the final thing to send me over the edge of sanity!

@Olden

Nostradamus has been the final thing to send me over the edge of sanity!

I'm hoping it was tongue-in-cheek!