to be alarmed by vaccine passports

[Loustew12]

Am I the only person who find the proposed extension of this alarming, given what's happening in Austria, where police are out checking the unvaccinated are hiding among the vaccinated? Gibraltar has 100% vaccination rate and cases are through the roof. So clearly being vaccinated doesn't 'stop the spread'. Therefore, there is no logical or justification for segregating society. It's surely a slippery slope to go down?

@BurntO

It’s almost like we’re in a once in a century pandemic and no one has a fucking clue what they’re doing but they are hoping to reduce those suffering long term health issues or death

They did know what to do. The WHO had a pandemic playbook with knowledge built up on their experience in developing countries.

So the question is, why did they throw it out to follow China’s lead, which had no evidence behind it?

What’s going to happen when we find out we should have treated it like other infectious diseases and followed the protocols already in place?

Whose idea was it to put travel bans, lockdowns and quarantines of the healthy in place in the rest of the world?

There's a massive difference. Mask avoiders are just idiots (if not genuinely exempt). Nobody has died from wearing a mask

A kid in China genuinely died during PE from exercising in a mask. And yet, many kids in America still have to wear them when they exercise. It’s really dumb.

Because masks don’t work. At least not the ones worn by the general population

[quote Thatsthewaytis]**@Lostinacloud* Well there is that side of the coin, others would argue that vaccines might be causing antibody dependent enhancement in some people and those people are actually experiencing more severe symptoms as a result of vaccination. Who knows?*

So true. I mean maybe the vaccinated people in ICU grew another set of lungs from having the vaccine an that’s why their covid symptoms are so much worse. Who knows!!! We just can’t trust actual data.[/quote]
Why are you dismissing the possibility? This effect happened with Dengvaxia (dengue fever vaccine) to some kids in the Philippines.

It led to a general mistrust in vaccines and that led to the real tragedy: people didn’t give their kids the MMR because they didn’t trust public health authorities.

But I suppose my point is Gibraltar levels are off the scale. It is spreading like wildfire and 100% are vaccinated. I've read the study regarding lessening of transmission post vaccination but much of this is based on low confidence data according to the study itself (which is funded by pfizer..) I did hear a health official on the news explain the other day that they think vaccinated people are infectious for a shorter time and this is why they think it might have an impact on transmission. But I wonder whether they've considered the fact that as soon as someone has covid symptoms they're going to stay away from people/be off work etc, so what difference is that really going to make? I just think it's pretty clear now that the benefit of vaccination is that it significantly reduces serious illness and death in whoever opts to have it. Which surely makes the issue of transmission less important ? Obviously some people will still die of it and other respiratory illnesses each year. I'm just not sure why we are so fixated on transmission when so many people are now protected . Or are we aiming for a zero deaths from covid ever scenario ?

Very true. But I'm definitely more scared about creeping global totalitarianism than I small % of people being unvaccinated.
The vast majority of people offered the vaccine take it. If some choose not to for their own personal reasons, or they have been taken in by a conspiracy and they die, thats the risk they've taken surely? Freedoms are being taken away gradually bit by bit from right under our noses. I think we should be more worried about this than we are.

I am really scared by the ICU doctor I class chatting to tonight who said 75% of their beds are currently occupied by the young unvaccinated. I mean they have made the choice not to reduce their risk of death 30 fold by getting the vaccine so they are taking their chances, but what about critically ill sepsis / car crash / meningitis patients that can no longer get the care and attention they need due to these idiots?

Just so unbelievably selfish not to get vaccinated. It’s inexcusable. Lock them all up until they get it? It’s what they deserve.

@JassyRadlett I literally followed up my statement about data manipulation with an example of data manipulation

And what about at the start when they were counting all deaths within 28 days of a positive test, from covid or from being run over by a bus?

We are also now given daily case numbers and restrictions brought back in due to case numbers. Maybe that was questionably justifiable before vaccines because high cases always led to a sharp rise in hospitalisations and deaths a few weeks later but since that link has been broken by vaccines and death rates remain fairly even, why the switch to daily case numbers?

[quote Lostinacloud]@JassyRadlett I literally followed up my statement about data manipulation with an example of data manipulation [/quote]
Ok, so no beef with the primary data then?

So what primary data are you using to support your idea that vaccination increases symptoms?

I think you missed Whitt’s principal point, which was that being unvaccinated and pregnant is a risk factor for hospitalisation with Covid. He wasn’t suggesting it as a measure of VE; rather pointing out that it’s a risk factor for people for whom their age would usually mean they weren’t at major risk.

However you’ve also misrepresented primary data there - is your ‘only one month of data’ based on any evidence, or is it your own assumption?

Here are the findings of an Oxford study with figures up to July:

The data show:

3371 pregnant women have been admitted to hospital with symptomatic COVID-19.
The severity of women's illness appears to have become worse; 24% of women admitted in the first wave had moderate or severe disease, compared with 36% with the Alpha variant and 45% with the Delta variant.
Vaccination data has been collected since 1 February 2021. Of 742 women admitted since that date, only four have received a single dose of vaccine and none have received both doses.
This means that more than 99% of pregnant women admitted to hospital with symptomatic COVID-19 are unvaccinated. In comparison, 60% of the general population admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated. During this time, at least 55,000 pregnant women have received one or more doses of a COVID vaccine in the UK.

@Loustew12

Very true. But I'm definitely more scared about creeping global totalitarianism than I small % of people being unvaccinated. The vast majority of people offered the vaccine take it. If some choose not to for their own personal reasons, or they have been taken in by a conspiracy and they die, thats the risk they've taken surely? Freedoms are being taken away gradually bit by bit from right under our noses. I think we should be more worried about this than we are.

Me too.

The sad truth is that vaccine passports in a system similar to Austria WILL be brought in. The debates online etc are just to make the plebs feel like their opinion on the matter has any relevance.

We know vaccine passports don’t reduce infection rates, don’t reduce NHS pressure, and don’t encourage more than a very small increase in uptake. So overall vaccine passports do nothing more for covid than make some people feel a bit safer and is off a lot of other people.

So why are the governments so determined to bring them in? There are no good answers to that question.

And then from August:
Figures from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that in England, Wales and Northern Ireland 66 pregnant women ended up in intensive care in July, the highest number since the pandemic began and three times as many as April last year. A total of 46 recently pregnant women were also admitted to critical care.

I don’t disagree that the advice on vaccination to pregnant women was a real issue and has caused hesitancy. I just don’t think that changes what the data tells us - that pregnancy is a significant risk factor for severe illness with Covid.

We know vaccine passports don’t reduce infection rates, don’t reduce NHS pressure, and don’t encourage more than a very small increase in uptake.

Could you share the evidence on this, please? Really interested to see it.

Even @Cheerychirpy’s data statement is presented in such a way as to sound dramatic on face value. I’m not saying whether it’s true or not, just demonstrating how data is manipulated;

The poster states that her ICU friend told them that 75% of icu patients were young and unvaccinated. Putting aside the missing information about what ‘young’ looks like, whether they have co-morbidities or whether they are even there suffering from covid, 75% sounds like a high figure.

However, if I look at my nearest NHS area trust, across two hospitals they have a total of 16 ICU beds so 75% of those is 12. Granted 12 out of 16 is still quite high but across an NHS area trust covering a population of several million, the numbers start to look pretty low.

I don’t have a particular opinion either way on the 12 out of 16 reported by a friend via the internet but it is a good example of figures being extrapolated to look higher than they are when you put them into population size perspective. Same with daily case numbers, even 280,000 ish weekly cases in not that much from a population of 67 million people.

And what about at the start when they were counting all deaths within 28 days of a positive test, from covid or from being run over by a bus?

We know that they were pretty close, based on comparators with trailing indicators such as death certificates where Covid was a primary and the excess mortality figures. The terrible epidemic of people getting hit by buses shortly after recovering from Covid was offset in the figures by the number who died after more than 28 days. It’s turned out to be a pretty accurate proxy.

We are also now given daily case numbers and restrictions brought back in due to case numbers.

Well, not in England, where the data is published alongside hospitalisations and deaths but the latter are viewed by government and public health as the measure to watch for restrictions.

Cases give a good indication of where hospitalisations will be in a week’s time, so it’s useful data.

Maybe that was questionably justifiable before vaccines because high cases always led to a sharp rise in hospitalisations and deaths a few weeks later but since that link has been broken by vaccines and death rates remain fairly even, why the switch to daily case numbers?

The link hasn’t been broken - the ratio has changed massively but cases are still a really reliable indicator of future hospitalisation levels. In fact the narrowing gap between cases and hospitalisations was an early warning sign of the impact of waning.

But we’ve had this data since very early in the pandemic. I’m sorry if I’ve missed that you’re in a different jurisdiction where case data hasn’t been readily available until recently, but as far as I’m aware most countries have been publishing daily data since at least last summer. The UK dashboard started last April.

I don’t have a particular opinion either way on the 12 out of 16 reported by a friend via the internet but it is a good example of figures being extrapolated to look higher than they are when you put them into population size perspective. Same with daily case numbers, even 280,000 ish weekly cases in not that much from a population of 67 million people.

Well, yes, comparing most things to the whole population makes them look pretty small.

The question really is what is it compared to what’s normal? How many younger people are usually in that ICU with a single disease?

I don’t disagree about the usefulness of anecdotes on the internet - which is why the primary data is incredibly useful, and particularly when you dig into the dynamics of the current wave.

What I’m trying to get across is the old adage of ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’

Data can be easily manipulated to support an argument/restrictions no matter what the actual situation.

@HeyDugeesCakeBadge maybe you should go back on Facebook if you want a vacuum of ‘altnerate facts’

@UsedUpUsername I suppose I dismiss it because it’s nonsense and not backed up by any kind of facts or data?

@Lostinacloud we all know what you’re trying to get across! I’ve seen you on these threads before and it’s certainly nothing to do with facts or statistics!

@BurntO

It’s almost like we’re in a once in a century pandemic and no one has a fucking clue what they’re doing but they are hoping to reduce those suffering long term health issues or death

Well said. It amazing how many would rather believe a vast conspiracy against them. It’s worrying.

What I’m trying to get across is the old adage of ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’

Data can be easily manipulated to support an argument/restrictions no matter what the actual situation.

Which is again why I come back to the importance of primary data and sources - and yet you object to that data being published too?

It’s also why we’re fortunate in this country to have a robust statistics regulator who can (and have) raised issues and reprimanded politicians and public bodies for misusing statistics to support their preferred positions, and ensures high standards of probity for our official statistics in the UK.

@UsedUpUsername

There's a massive difference. Mask avoiders are just idiots (if not genuinely exempt). Nobody has died from wearing a mask

A kid in China genuinely died during PE from exercising in a mask. And yet, many kids in America still have to wear them when they exercise. It’s really dumb.

Because masks don’t work. At least not the ones worn by the general population

I didn't know that and I agree that is genuinely dumb!

@JassyRadlett

We know vaccine passports don’t reduce infection rates, don’t reduce NHS pressure, and don’t encourage more than a very small increase in uptake.

Could you share the evidence on this, please? Really interested to see it.

Well we do know that infection rates are not significantly lower in Scotland and Wales than in England despite having vaccine passports.

And yet NI has just decided to introduce them. That's my alternative birthday plan gone*

*was planning a trip to Berlin next March but if there are still vaccine passports was going to go to Belfast instead. Now need to find an alternative alternative!

@ColinTheKoala awhhh I am playing the worlds tiniest violin just for you.

@Thatsthewaytis you know nothing about me but thanks for the biscuit for my tea

Well we do know that infection rates are not significantly lower in Scotland and Wales than in England despite having vaccine passports.

Absent all other factors - including weather, school terms, earlier infection dynamics etc being controlled, that’s not really evidence and certainly not strong enough for ‘we know they don’t reduce infection rates.’