To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

No

Nope.

Nope. The situation is .. not good.

Especially after the missile test I think the west is going to let Taiwan go.

No.

Besides which, I don't recognise this end of history narrative in the 90s. Nor do I think that the following years were without any great threat. Although maybe it seemed that way compared to the doomsday scenarios that you had expected?

But, I don't expect that we'll see a war with China. Although the tone of conversation between China and the bulk of the rest of the world has the potential to get a great deal shittier.

By war do you mean physical? Or trade or cyber? Or cold War style?

@FourTeaFallOut

The narrative was there but I imagine it was one of many narratives and also it’s a more complex narrative than I outlined in my post eg. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man

Would be interested to know why you feel there wouldn’t be an actual war. Obviously I’d like to agree.

Ultimately, no one wants a nuclear war.

Of course it is possible that brinkmanship could go wrong, but I think it is a low probability outcome.

What is maybe a little worrying is China is far more capable of playing a long game than western democracies, so may emerge as the World’s main superpower.

We would definitely give Taiwan up rather than fight a Third World War.

Ultimately, we have gone a bit soft with our pursuit of leisure and desire to ‘have a life’ (I.e be fairly hedonistic).

@GoFindCoffeeAndSnacks
I think undoubtedly a form of Cold War, likely a cyber war (could possibly argue these are occurring to an extent) likely a physical war in Taiwan and I’m worried about that physical war or occupation spreading further.

Do you mean nuclear war? Because there'd be no winners. Surely they wouldn't be that stupid.

I have been pondering this. I am not sure the west will defend Taiwan. But australia and new zealand they might.

I think China has a lot of worldwide reach already and might go for a control with out warfare. If they own all the minerals through buying bits of africa and then own all the production and tgen influence all the politics there isnt a need to build an empire with force.

@Ciaram55 No I don’t mean a nuclear war, but I do mean invading other territories.

Because nobody wants a war with China, the capacity for it to escalate quickly is chilling and enough of a deterrent to demand careful negotiation and a tactical blind eye.

I was a teen in the 90s and I recognise what the OP is talking about. I wonder if it was partly the hangover from the cold war, and nobody really thought to tell us kids that the threat had largely abated? I read lots of books like Brother in the Land, When the Wind Blows, Children of the Dust, A for Zachariah... Genuinely thought that one morning I would look out the window to see a mushroom cloud.

@Elephantsparade pretty sure Australia and New Zealand have nowhere near the capability of this sort of defense. If anyone were to defend it would have to be US backed.

I think there will be huge shifts in the next few years in who the significant world powers are and how much influence they have. Its interesting to look in history about how strong nations eg roman empire, moors, Austro-Hungarian etc can quickly disappear and be replaced by others.

Hopefully it won't come to a war but we can't be sure.

China effectively owns us financially, products why would they need to blow us up?

I think the nightmare scenario would be if Russia invaded Ukraine and China invaded Taiwan simultaneously. I think in that situation we would let Taiwan go.

Sorry I meant tje west might defend australia and new zealand rather than those two might defend Taiwan.

China expects to become a world leader. Simple as.

I doubt America is going to have the backbone to defend Taiwan. China is absolutely committed to retaking this island, and Hong Kong is just the amuse bouche.

From the Chinese perspective, the Taiwanese side lost a civil war and America unfairly blocked them from taking that island.

I’m very glad that happened, btw, as the 20th century was absolutely shit for Mainlanders but great for Taiwanese under US protection.

There was a time I believed the One China, Two Systems could work, but recent events in Hong Kong have really shook me.

The only way out is for the West to recommit to rebuilding their manufacturing capacity and take education more seriously, as in more engineers and STEM.

Last thing we need is more humanities students who seem only skilled to whine on social media … tearing down the West while ignoring the massive malign influence of the CCP.

(And I love China and spent many of my formative years there. I didn’t want things to turn out this way, in the Hu-Wen era, I was much more optimistic)

@FourTeaFallOut I agree that no one wants a war but I guess there might be a limit of what we would accept. We would let Taiwan go but what about…Japan..India? Those are very hypothetical of course but I suspect China’s ambitions could be rather larger than we have realised.

New Zealand? What are they going to do if China invades Taiwan, sweep up afterwards?

What is maybe a little worrying is China is far more capable of playing a long game than western democracies, so may emerge as the World’s main superpower.
Yes, this is actually their main superpower. Not new rockets, although this was concerning as well - mainly because it has been tested in August, but not noticed (or not acknowledged at least) by the West until a couple of weeks later.

Just to clarify, I meant serious invasion of Ukraine, going for Kyiv and western Ukraine. I’m aware the Russians are already in Donbas and Crimea.

@Elephantsparade ah ok got you. Could we actually defend them successfully, one wonders.

@MrsSchadenfreude

I think the nightmare scenario would be if Russia invaded Ukraine and China invaded Taiwan simultaneously. I think in that situation we would let Taiwan go.

Russia has already invaded Ukraine in 2014.