To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

I disagree.

They are the leading producer of this tech

Buyers in other markets want it, so they produce green tech. But they are going to be reliant on coal for a long time, this energy shock has only reinforced the dangers of moving away from it.

However climate change also really affects China, as we saw with the recent deadly floods, just like it affects us all

Please research the tragic history of flooding in China. Its always been a sad fact of life there.

The dangers of poverty are far more dangerous than climate change, if they are rich and productive, it won’t affect them as much as in other countries.

Unlike us they are also really impacted by straight up pollution which is properly deadly for the population

Yes I lived in China many, many years so cannot forget the smell of coal on a cold winter’s morning. But the transition cannot be to renewables, personally would rather see natural gas used in urban areas to cut down on the air pollution issue. Although they were moving the coal plants to more rural areas, which will also help immensely.

Coal is not a sustainable solution on any level. The only question is the timing of the transition

I don’t like coal, but it’s cheaper than natural gas so better for developing countries. In any case, they need energy, lots of it.

Renewables has only ADDED to the overall energy mix, but never replaces anything.

@UsedUpUsername Events like flooding aren’t a new problem - but they have the potential to be seriously aggravated by climate change. According to the internet China has experienced a seven-fold increase in the frequency of floods since the 1950s, rising every decade.
It’s true that economic growth can fund adaptation and mitigation measures against climate change to an extent, but both climate adaptation and energy transition are required for a prosperous future and both are unfortunately quite urgent. As far as I can tell China here is trying to pursue a fairly rational balanced policy that takes into account the need for growth and the need to mitigate climate change. They care about both, as they should. It’s all part of the same plan! They are not only producing this tech to sell to us. China is the largest investor, producer AND consumer of renewable energy. They have the gargantuan task of satisfying their growing energy consumption at the same time as achieving energy transition. They need renewables for that. They are aiming very high.

According to the internet China has experienced a seven-fold increase in the frequency of floods since the 1950s, rising every decade

I don’t know about those specific figures, but the loss of life has declined HUGELY in that space of time. Maybe 300 people died in the recent floods, but similar floods in the 90s killed 4,000!

Floods don’t kill nearly so many people in China these days. The successes of fossil fuel-based development are so undersold.

It’s true that economic growth can fund adaptation and mitigation measures against climate change to an extent, but both climate adaptation and energy transition are required for a prosperous future and both are unfortunately quite urgent

This is your opinion. I think renewables are a complete waste of money (and land) when we have alternatives like nuclear and natural gas.

As far as I can tell China here is trying to pursue a fairly rational balanced policy that takes into account the need for growth and the need to mitigate climate change

It’s more about local air pollution. Which is a severe problem.

China is the largest investor, producer AND consumer of renewable energy

Curb your enthusiasm. If you remove hydroelectricity, which accounts for roughly 20 percent of electricity generation, then it’s very small. And it’s also additive, in that renewables don’t replace any fossil fuels.

Solar is great in remote, off-grid rural areas, but don’t expect it or wind power to do anything significant for its industrial needs.

I think we just need to be realistic.

I think we have been at war with China for a while now, but war doesn't just mean guns and missiles, but money; buying up key places, like Piraeus port in Greece; investing in places with mineral wealth by offering loans that are then pulled and the Chinese own the mines or land.

They have been waging an intellectual property war for decades now.

The Belt and Road Initiative is economic war in effect.

I hope we will defend Taiwan, because if the West doesn't; where next?

@thegcatsmother

I am very unconvinced that we would defend Taiwan and really your question is the crux of my thread - where next?

@thegcatsmother

Also if I can vent my frustration a bit about the Piraeus thing. I lived many years in Greece including during the crippling financial crisis. Though this crisis for Greece was always in some sense on the cards due to fiscal mismanagement, it’s also a complex story and I remain beyond angry at the failure of Greece’s supposed European allies to come to Greece’s rescue with the result being lots of courting with Russia and China - this is what I mean by the EU being “asleep at the wheel”. Why can we not think a few steps ahead. China manages it.

China have been very clever at increasing their dominion outside of China. They will put down any opposition brutally. Having said that my understanding is they have brought wealth and education to many of the mining areas in many parts of Africa (I don't know how much of this is accurate or how much is propaganda, given that the information on this comes from a newspaper owned in partnership with China and a certain Middle Eastern country.
Depending on the allies it now makes, the west absolutely could become threatened, I think it's dangerously naive to think otherwise.
To be fair to China though, they are simply doing what many countries have fought battles over which is domination, the difference is rather than through war its been via investment.
The west has simply slept walk into this.
As other posters have said, China plays a long, slow game, while our politicians simply look from one election to the next knowing full well that they won't survive multiple elections. Therefore when China decides its ready to move in, they will, quietly, easily and we won't even have realised!

I’m not convinced the CCP give a shiny shite about losing a few thousand citizens to flooding. cast your minds back to 2008 and a massive earthquake rumoured to have taken out a quarter of a million citizens - so as not to put a spanner in the Olympic works, they simply bulldozed any roads leading to the affected region.

It’s a very western bubble where people still believe “all lives are equal”.

@AlphabetAerobics lives lost to flooding is one thing, but there’s also infrastructure lost to flooding, business, crops…and the destabilising onwards effects of these. So whether anyone cares about lives and to what extent, that doesn’t mean catastrophic flooding something that can be ignored.

But also omg if that is true - I do not remember that story as wasn’t watching the news in that period of my life.

@offyougotwantychops

Yes, I just don’t see how to rule out a direct threat to the west.

In my OP I have criticised western policies as well. I’m definitely not trying to say west good, China bad - that’s too simplistic.

For me another key question in this is what do we in the west wish to defend about our way of life, in a world that is being reshaped by China (among others). I know it’s a bit unfashionable to defend the west at all, but actually I think plenty of aspects of our world, culture and values are worth keeping!

I think strategically the West has to defend Taiwan as a line in the sand. I would also put good money on Taiwan having a few tricks of its own that no-one knows about. The Taiwanese aren't daft.

@thegcatsmother

I wish but I’m just not convinced.

See this from yesterday in the Global Times www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1236893.shtml

Obviously consider the editorial stance of Global Times and of Scott Ritter - google them if you aren’t sure.

Things just seem to be hotting up to me.

Things have been at a,slow simmer for a while in several areas of the world. I grew up in the Cold War, and my family are military. I am more uncertain about the state of play now than I was in the 80s, though anyone who thought the Cold War had stopped was deluded.

Wouldn't you think that with a world wide pandemic the concentration would be on that only. Instead we now have the threat of war too.

@Ciaram55
You might think that if you assumed we were all on the same side. However, from vaccine diplomacy to digital surveillance, the pandemic has been treated as an opportunity and has hastened existing trends.

@Ionlydomassiveones

Yes definitely that’s a preferred option. They have brought HK into line easily enough. I’m not sure how they will do this with Taiwan exactly but I have a few ideas. In fairness these are not actually considered enemies by China I suppose. Just part of China!

Would be interested to know what would you say constitutes defeating an enemy though, in the case that it’s achieved without bloodshed? What enemies were you talking about specifically? What do you observe?

This podcast is quite good

China, If You’re Listening
www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/china-if-youre-listening/

You are right to be worried, the CCP have been repeatedly flying jets into Taiwanese Airspace, all it takes is one mistake for it to turn into a kinetic war. Taiwan won't hesitate to fire back. The fact that American jets did training exercises taking off from a Japanese Navy ship in the China Sea recently shows how easily hot this could get.

For the last decades the subversion has been economic and cultural, however if the Evergrande crisis causes the Chinese people to start to rebel/rise up, attacking Taiwan could be used as a distraction.
You might like this interview with an investigator who has been documenting this for years.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=kXDivflF5Bo

I hesitated to click on something associated with The Epoch Times and I think some of this might be venturing into conspiracy theory territory! One of the main points he is putting forwards is that the CCP is facing collapse within a year?!? I find that really hard to imagine, with such tight control of data and information, and ultimately many having seen improvements in living standards. It also mentioned some ideas that have been brought up already on this thread like "reverse opium wars" which I also find not very believable. Some fair points made about the business environment, foreign direct investment etc. and the overall changing narratives/perspectives on China from the outside world.

One of the main points he is putting forwards is that the CCP is facing collapse within a year?!?

Totally wishful thinking on their part.

For those who don’t know, it’s a Falun Gong propaganda rag but very occasionally they print interesting and somewhat accurate things about China. This isn’t one of them 😂

China are silently invading the world via their Belt and Road initiative.
Lending billions to countries in order for them to build ports and roads then the countries have to comply with China using these infrastructures and giving Chinese people visas OR paying huge amounts of interest on their ££££ loan
It's quite clever really but equally very alarming and worrying

The YouTube Channel is run by Patrick Bet-David an entrepreneur who interviews a wide variety of people (left wing, right wing, communists, sports stars, ex-mafia etc). I found it an interesting video, but I am sympathetic to the ordinary people who are fighting for their freedom, as well as the persecuted Uighur.

No Conspiracy, the information is based on a book written by 2 Chinese generals called "Unrestricted Warfare" released nearly 20 years ago, which details how to win a war in the age of globalisation using irregular warfare.

I would have thought that mutually assured destruction would keep anyone from pressing that red button.

Cold/Cyber/Trade (medication, essential machinery components) wars? For sure. Russia AND China together.