To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

They need to look at history. Hitler had big plans for world domination too. War has never solved anything. Good grief will they ever learn.

China have been buying up bits of Africa for quite some time. They are are looking for new markets and influence outside Europe and the US.

As the gas crisis has shown overdependence on any one country is dangerous and the Europe needs to maintain its own economic and manufacturing base.
There won't be a war because everyone has too much to lose. If China goes to war with the US and Europe then their economy will be destroyed too. I suspect that the CCP know that trying to control a huge fragmented population without some degree of economic stability would be impossible.

Europe and the US won't want a war with China either.

www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp

When Nazi Germany did that we went to war with them and freed the victims! Now I’m wondering if we only intervened because Germany was threatening to invade us personally, and we actually weren’t bothered about the concentration camps.
This was not the motivation. The truth about concentration camps was not even known widely until the later years of WWII. Even the wiki article on "appeasement" discusses the events leading to the start of WWII quite accurately.

The Chinese population do have an interest in Taiwan. It’s taught in schools as rightfully belonging to China. The Taiwanese hate the mainlanders not just politically but personally too. The cultures are very different.

Taiwan is an amazing place and it would be horrific if it fell to China.

@Marelle

I find it very odd that they have actual concentration camps in China and are committing all sorts of atrocities, but we aren’t doing anything about it. When Nazi Germany did that we went to war with them and freed the victims! Now I’m wondering if we only intervened because Germany was threatening to invade us personally, and we actually weren’t bothered about the concentration camps. Because we don’t seem too bothered about them right now.

As,I understand it, the UK government knew about the German camps and just weren't too bothered about that aspect.

I am concerned about the same things OP.

There is a real softness in the west that comes down to our obsession with individual liberties. Many students are more obsessed with identity politics and online virtue signalling than in any sense of real social and community responsibility. Many are more interested in perceived victimhood than any real commitment to growth.

The thing that struck me about the Chinese parents we know is the discipline they instill in their children. They will happily force them to do things they hate to teach them that mastery of knowledge and skill only comes through hard, determined graft. They are willing to be harsh with their children for the greater good - the greater good of the child long term and for society.

The whole nonsense squealing over mask wearing neatly summarises the differences in the two cultures. The West: screams of outrage over 'mah freeeeeeedom'! China: quietly gets on with wearing masks, applies energy elsewhere.

The only thing that can really destabilise them is the West continuing to spread our individualistic values online to the younger generations. I suspect China's real battle is ahead and it's internal and intergenerational.

@Marelle

I find it very odd that they have actual concentration camps in China and are committing all sorts of atrocities, but we aren’t doing anything about it. When Nazi Germany did that we went to war with them and freed the victims! Now I’m wondering if we only intervened because Germany was threatening to invade us personally, and we actually weren’t bothered about the concentration camps. Because we don’t seem too bothered about them right now.

No, we didn't go to war with Germany because of the concentration camps, or even because of other Nazi ideology. We went to war with them because of their land-grab policies, which were seen as ultimately threatening the Empire and hence British trade and influence.

I think much more worrying is the EU. France could have a national front leader in 12 months time -if that happens the EU will break apart.

China does not need to go to war with us, they already own a significant proportion of our infrastructure. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2020/07/CHINA-S-OWNERSHIP-UK-ASSETS-EXPOSES-BRITAIN-S-BROKEN-MODEL
They've already won.

As PP said
19th century was British
20th century was USA s
21st will be China's

I sympathise with they “they’ve already won” perspective but what this seems to miss is that even if the writing is on the wall and the outcome is inevitable, it’s not over yet - what comes next? What changes are we going to see?

What, like releasing a pathogen that brings the whole world to its knees, whilst at the same time selling protective equipment to the west at inflated prices, whilst watching their economies crumble? That would never happen.

what comes next? What changes are we going to see?
Their Covid weapon failed to destroy us so they’ll probably have another crack at killing us with a different pandemic.

Well the US has pledged to support Taiwan but after what Biden did to Afghanistan I don't trust them to keep their word. However Bidens statement in March was strong 'China has… an overall goal to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the word, and the most powerful country in the world. That is not going to happen on my watch'

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act declares that the U.S. will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific and of grave concern to the United States'

So the United States has not promised to defend the island but left itself the option of doing so. This is their back out clause.

The US took a severe knock over the mishandling of the evacuation and they revealed to the world they are not the organised super power they once were and yes I agree the West have got very soft - us included. The take over is very much imminent. The Chinese media have already being saying that those US military personnel in Taiwan will be the first to be eliminated. The gauntlet has already been thrown. Maybe that why the US backed out of Afghanistan so easily to protect their troops knowing full well they would be needed else where sooner than thought.

China's navy/Air Force - the most powerful in the world next to the US has been harassing the US ships/airforce for a while now and doing live fire exercises in the Taiwan straight.

China has absolutely being the long game, they have been steadily making sure the anti access/area denial capabilities have improved so when it does kick off the US will have to fight to get the advantage - and then keep it. They have no strong hold there and are already being bullied. China has already been doing simulated attacks with bombers over Taiwan and then publishing them as movie propaganda.

The US will have to rely on India, Japan and Australia to 'help' contain China - they cant win the on their own, China with slaughter he US as they are travelling to Taiwan, fingers will be over he nuclear buttons..

So I think they will let Taiwan fall.

However that will just be the first course.

I completely agree OP, thats why I don't believe for one second that the covid outbreak was a natural occurrence! Im not some crazy conspiracy nutter either! We have been looking in the wrong direction ( the middle east) for to long while the dragon woke!

@Marelle

I find it very odd that they have actual concentration camps in China and are committing all sorts of atrocities, but we aren’t doing anything about it. When Nazi Germany did that we went to war with them and freed the victims! Now I’m wondering if we only intervened because Germany was threatening to invade us personally, and we actually weren’t bothered about the concentration camps. Because we don’t seem too bothered about them right now.

That’s exactly why we had to go to war. They were going to invade us! I’m sure at some point we’d have done some hand wringing re. concentration camps but we wouldn’t have taken the steps we did if they had invaded a few countries in Europe and left it there.

@Marelle

what comes next? What changes are we going to see? Their Covid weapon failed to destroy us so they’ll probably have another crack at killing us with a different pandemic.

In my darker moments I wonder about the plague of drugs that are everywhere. Revenge for the opium wars, perhaps?

This however, is real: www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/19/china-russia-navy-ships-jointly-sail-through-japan-strait

Also I found the new friendship between the Taliban and China alarming!

@ShiftingSands21

I sympathise with they “they’ve already won” perspective but what this seems to miss is that even if the writing is on the wall and the outcome is inevitable, it’s not over yet - what comes next? What changes are we going to see?

What comes next is business as usual. As long as we don't keep going around dick swinging with £3Billion white elephants aggravating with freedom of navigation exercises all will be fine. Aggravating the proud but laughable Russian military is one thing, antagonising China on it's own doorstep is another. Imagine if they sank the damn thing - we'd be completely powerless to do anything... How that neck of the Woods organises itself is entirely the business of the people who live there. As others have said we need to concentrate on manufacturing and knowledge consolidation and retention in our own neck of the woods. We were the World leaders in nuclear power generation and now have to go begging to China to build a power station for us.

@Medex
And what would be the second course do you think?

@PickUpAPepper that article is really unnerving.

I agree, it’s extremely concerning and I am not alone in my social circle in feeling things are heading this way but I’m astonished to see it being discussed on MN and generally here if something hasn’t been announced on BBC news then it is, of course, completely baseless and unfounded.

@Ohsugarhoneyicetea

Doesnt anyone else think its odd that Covid managed to spread all over the rest of the world, in particular Europe and America, killing hundreds of thousands, while there were hardly any cases or deaths in Beijing and Shanghai? Personally I think we are already at war with them, we just dont know it yet.

I did wander down a conspiratorial rabbit hole last night talking to DP (who thinks I’m taking shit) and said what if this virus was just the precursor to the big one they are going to release. What if they’ve already vaccinated their people for the next one and they wanted to see what we did with this one to make sure we had no defences against the next.

What if the plan is to take land that is no longer inhabited and populate it themselves. We know they are massively overpopulated so it makes sense they will want to claim more space.

DP directed me to the silver foil and left the kitchen.

@FreeBritnee Thing is, it genuinely is tough to keep a grip on reality at the minute.

@Medex

Also I found the new friendship between the Taliban and China alarming!

The Taliban are the gateway to the motherload of otherwise rare minerals in Afghanistan needed for lithium batteries.

The whole thing is odd, People were marching the streets of the UK against Trump as he was this big bad leader.
China has actual slave camps in place, they have destroyed the world with a deadly pathogen, they control their citizens with fear and threats of death, their animal rights are appauling, their pollution is off the scale.

Why are people not marching the streets protesting the above?

People are walking blindly into dystopia and directing their anger at easy and socially acceptable targets.