To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

No there won't be a war with China, there may be a proxy war somewhere else like in Syria with Russia and the west.

I am concerned about the same things OP.

There is a real softness in the west that comes down to our obsession with individual liberties.

But if you admire Chinese authoritarianism and do not consider Western liberties to have any value, why would you be concerned about growing Chinese power? Why don't you welcome it?

@WeThreeKingsofOrientAre

Really interesting. Though I listened back to his TED talk and I think he may have spoken a little too soon about Hong Kong.

I think a lot of people also underestimate the power china holds over Africa, they have loaned huge amounts of money to the continent and are not above seizing assets when the loans start to default

Ponceyponce yes - colonialism in other words.

You say your thinking is partly because the pandemic has redefined what you previously thought as possible in the world. The world saw a much worse (death toll wise) pandemic only 100 years ago, I find it strange how forgotten that is compared to the wars that surrounded it.

There won't be a war whilst the US still has its nuclear weapons and Europe (the continent, not the EU) is friendly with them. The combined US/Europe stockpile would be a match for China, no question. Russia getting involved on China's side would be problematic but I don't see that happening - they'll side with China diplomatically, but won't want to risk a nuclear war with America.

Naturally, at some point there will be a war between China and the west. China believes in their inherent superiority and is using its time and resources to build the weaponry it needs to firstly feel secure, and secondly expand its territory. There's no doubt China wants a war eventually, just not yet. It could easily be a decade or more away.

It does feel like we're watching a repeat of Neville Chamberlain waving his bit of paper! War can never be avoided, only delayed.

A lot of willie waving going on here. Having grown up in the 60s and 70s, the 80s was pretty frightening. And the media love to create drama too.

@Buttercup54321
I think I’d be more inclined to view the media as downplaying developments just now.

No one wants a war with China, a war I’m not sure we or any other country would win! However I was shocked to hear of the treatment of Uyghur people in China, being kept in ‘camps’ which sound like concentration camps where the women are raped and having forced sterilisation for many of the women of child bearing age. I cannot comprehend how this is going on and no one is talking about it! Why is it being allowed to happen, it’s like we’ve learnt nothing from history.

@RoundRainbow

I agree that what is happening is horrendous, but I’m not clear what we can do about it? Sanctions? Boycotts?

Following. I’m another one who thinks COVID was not natural.

There also won't be a war with China as China didn't invade the world the bought it up. And China wouldn't want to risk the foreign debts they have bought not getting paid back.

. I cannot comprehend how this is going on and no one is talking about it! Why is it being allowed to happen, it’s like we’ve learnt nothing from history

What do you suggest they do, we can't invade China, they haven't given a toss about human rights abuses for decades, sanctions won't work, a invasion won't work what do you want us to do.

I haven't got time to read the discussion here, so this offering is a bit off piste, but I recall watching the programme Years and Years a couple of years ago, and this talk of a nuclear war from China makes me believe Russell T Davies is now some kind of psychic. He also predicted a pandemic and a massive financial crash which is now starting to look likely.

He was wrong about Trump though (thank God).

and this talk of a nuclear war from China makes me believe Russell T Davies is now some kind of psychic

Yes, I think China would use nuclear weapons if provoked enough.

China may have bought up huge parcels of Africa (and Europe btw) but as long as it doesn't want to send its army abroad, it's not a new empire.

It can hardly seize the ports of Mombasa or Piraeus without military force.

It has a long way to go to catch up with the US, which has about 30 military bases scattered all over Africa.

I suggest not looking at things China is doing in isolation. When you compare them with existing American or European capabilities and activities, it's much less alarming. They are becoming a more competitive rival but they are not going to conquer the world (not least because they don't actually want to conquer the world).

@JojobaFromOctober

I am concerned about the same things OP.

There is a real softness in the west that comes down to our obsession with individual liberties.

But if you admire Chinese authoritarianism and do not consider Western liberties to have any value, why would you be concerned about growing Chinese power? Why don't you welcome it?

Because there's an enormous gap between those two positions and most people inhabit the middle ground, me included. My sense is that in the west there has been a shift towards extreme individualism vs the Chinese extreme authoritarianism. Neither position is healthy for individuals or for society.

Middle way is the way forward.

Just popping on to recommend reading Tim Marshall’s books Prisoners of Geography and Power of Geography. He goes into a lot of detail on just this, and how they’re shoring up power in the South China sea,
Fascinating but scary stuff.

@dreamingbohemian if China becomes the biggest economic power they don't need to use military force.

[quote Amboseli]@dreamingbohemian if China becomes the biggest economic power they don't need to use military force.[/quote]
There are limits to economic power. China can achieve most of its aims without the use of force because those aims are still fairly limited. But it cannot do what some people on this thread are saying colonise Africa, take over the world without military force.

China's economy is interdependent with the global economy, there are limits to how much it can inflict economic pain on other countries before it starts to turn around on themselves.

And you cannot always coerce other countries by economic means alone. If you could, we would just use sanctions all the time, but even the most powerful countries in the world still have to resort to military force sometimes.

No. War between nations has died out over recent decades.

Selkie that's lovely optimism and I'd be interested in hearing how you account for Syria.

So my reading list on this so far is:
Prisoners of Geography - Tim Marshall
When China Rules the World - Martin Jacques

I’ve already read and enjoyed Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan

Does anyone have other recommendations? Thank you.

I never understand why were up in arms that other countries have developed nuclear armaments. It's a natural consequence of us and USA etc having them. Doesn't mean war is inevitable though. Our conditions improved with the industrial revolution and eventually so will that of the Chinese population.