To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

Well let's face it, covid has pretty much proved that China has the power to cripple the world.

I think it's North Korea we need to watch tbh, that could be the sparking point of some real conflict which could bring in Chinese intervention.

@Lesserspottedmama
MN will surprise you. But I’m genuinely interested in who are your social circle and why this is a concern for them?

I think China have already won the "war".

The US is unlikely to go to war over Taiwan. But letting China take control of Taiwan means they have control over the world's biggest manufacturer of semiconductor chips upon which every aspect of our lives depend.

So if China take control of Taiwan, they take control of the world.

The west's retreat from Afghanistan shows we won't put up a fight over Taiwan as the domestic population will not back it and governments want to be re-elected. The CCP have no such worries as there are no elections in China.

OP I'm so glad you started this thread. I've been reading and listening to commentators on this for a long time and it's worrying, but doesn't seem to be covered by the MSM.

Neither China nor Russia want to take over the world. They both want their own countries strengthened and to be equal powers with the US/EU; they want to dominate their respective regions (which entails some aggressive expansion but within limits); and they want to expand their trade/resource networks strategically (China's BRI, Russia's energy).

In essence we are coming back to a period of multiple great powers, with their respective spheres of influence, and the question is how those great powers are going to manage their affairs without accidentally starting a world war.

I do not think there will be a great power war. There are a huge number of disputes and tensions, but only a few issues serious enough to potentially lead to war, and despite all the saber-rattling there is a great wish on all sides to avoid open conflict.

What might change things drastically is if Japan decides to acquire nuclear weapons. That would completely destabilise the region and considerably raise the risk of war, I think.

The wealthiest person in the world (and arguably therefore the most powerful) entire business model is based on shipping junk destined for landfill from China to the rest of the world.

I think your tinfoil hat has slipped over your eyes and ears.

'Sorry, Mumsnet isn't working as it should right now. We are on the case and we'll be back as soon as we can.'

This made me laugh and be fearful in equal measures!

Expecting the door knock any time soon!

fromdownwest has summed the situation up very well.

Oh Goody!
Something else to worry about!

@dreamingbohemian I think you are right about coming back to a world of multiple powers. You reminded me of this article about civilisation states unherd.com/2020/08/the-irresistible-rise-of-the-civilisation-state/

I’m just not sure what to expect the outcome to look like exactly and I also don’t feel confident we can rule out that things get out of hand.

The west's retreat from Afghanistan shows we won't put up a fight over Taiwan as the domestic population will not back it and governments want to be re-elected.

You really can't compare Afghanistan and Taiwan. Despite all the rhetoric of the past 20 years, the US/UK do not have significant strategic interests in Afghanistan. Taiwan and the Pacific more generally are enormously important, and our militaries have been trying to pivot to the region for years (not least because then they can go back to what they like, preparing for big-scale conventional warfare that will likely never happen).

@Medex what did Biden do to Afghanistan?
Don't you mean Trump and the Doha agreement?

@Hattie765

I think it's North Korea we need to watch tbh, that could be the sparking point of some real conflict which could bring in Chinese intervention.

I don't see it. Its just posturing from North Korea, where as China is already bullying the US and has made recent and direct threats towards US stationed personel in Taiwan.

[quote ShiftingSands21]@dreamingbohemian I think you are right about coming back to a world of multiple powers. You reminded me of this article about civilisation states unherd.com/2020/08/the-irresistible-rise-of-the-civilisation-state/

I’m just not sure what to expect the outcome to look like exactly and I also don’t feel confident we can rule out that things get out of hand.[/quote]
Well sure you can never rule things out. No one expected a world war in 1914 but we got one anyway.

Today we have nuclear weapons though, and the awareness that starting a proper conventional war can escalate to the nuclear option. That is a huge disincentive.

Also, Russia and the US have 5000-6000 warheads each, China has about 350 and a less credible second-strike capability (the ability to absorb the first wave of a nuclear attack and strike back). So China has even more of a reason not to get into a situation that might escalate to that level.

[quote Postdatedpandemic]@Medex what did Biden do to Afghanistan?
Don't you mean Trump and the Doha agreement?[/quote]
Not joining that tango today, lets try not derail this thread eh?

I'm now more scared than ever reading about the joint Russian and Chinese navy.

There is not a joint Russian-Chinese navy! Really, don't worry too much about it. It was a joint naval drill and mostly posturing.

Russia and China like to send the message that they are drawing closer and could jointly threaten the West but they have serious issues between each other as well.

Why are people not marching the streets protesting the above?

There seem to be fewer protests about atrocities committed by (nominally) left wing regimes.
I’m not sure there will be war with China. I think the rest of the world will just give in to China’s demands.

It is alarming

@Andante57

Why are people not marching the streets protesting the above?

There seem to be fewer protests about atrocities committed by (nominally) left wing regimes.
I’m not sure there will be war with China. I think the rest of the world will just give in to China’s demands.

It is cool to protest Trump and Boris.

However, actual dictators, with actual slaves and horrific human rights records get a free pass.

The whole Newcastle United situation encapsulates it. Someone who runs a zero hour contact company is much less loved than a country that literally murders journalists who go against them.

People like easy and socially acceptable targets, protests that are cool and will look good on their social media. People trashing Bristol due to slavery hundreds of years ago, and ignore modern day slavery.

Bizarre

Found your post of interest OP. I bought this critically acclaimed 2009 book recently. Worth a look.

www.amazon.co.uk/When-China-Rules-World-Western/dp/0140276041/ref=nodl_?tag=mumsnetforu03-21

China will replace the United States as the world's dominant power. In so doing, it will not become more western but the world will become more Chinese.

Jacques argues that we cannot understand China in western terms but only through its own history and culture. To this end, he introduces a powerful set of ideas including China as a civilization-state, the tributary system, the Chinese idea of race, a very different concept of the state, and the principle of contested modernity.

First published in 2009 to widespread critical acclaim - and controversy - 'When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order' has sold a quarter of a million copies, been translated into eleven languages, nominated for two major literary awards, and has been the subject of an immensely popular TED talk. In the three years since the first edition was published, the book has transformed the debate about China worldwide and proved remarkably prescient.

wasn't there a thread on this recently www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4373631-Anyone-else-worried?msgid=111589218#111589218

I would agree with everything @UsedUpUsername has said. As it stands currently the west cannot sustain itself with regards to manufacturing and STEM we need to be throwing resources at this now before taiwan is invaded or we will see implications on day to day life with product shortages. I don't believe the west will have the backbone to defend taiwan but the recent pact between usa, uk, Australia and New Zealand shows the need to defend against China is being considered by these governments.
I think a lot of people also underestimate the power china holds over Africa, they have loaned huge amounts of money to the continent and are not above seizing assets when the loans start to default

Newspapers love to stoke things up and I have stopped reading their fear mongering headlines. My mental health is better for it. The media has this population in an almost permanent state of anxiety. I don't read it. If China wants to go to war then so be it. Their trading will cease if they do. I'm not worried,North Korea has been playing mind games for years. Im at the stage I really don't care.

Our dependency on oil severely influences relationships with oil rich middle eastern countries. Our dependency on manufacturing may be even more significant in relations with China. China doesn’t need to actually start a war, they just need to point out that they can handle a fight. The rest of the battle can take place in banks and conference rooms.