To think there actually could be a war with China?

[ShiftingSands21]

NC for this as I don’t want everyone to think I’m a crazy person.

I grew up in the 90s and at the time very much bought the idea that we had reached the end of history, which is retrospectively quite embarrassingly silly. Since 1997 say, a bunch of things have happened that I never would have thought possible before that. The pandemic has most recently shifted my sense of what can actually happen as I’m sure it has for many.

But reading the news lately, what catches my eye is rapidly shifting from coronavirus to geopolitics, and I am beginning to feel as though we are actually moving towards a war with China, even if indirectly.

One trend I see is that we are consistently underestimating the intentions and/or capabilities of our opponents (a term I use loosely). See: Afghanistan, Hong Kong, for example. These -quite different- situations moved much faster than we seemed to have planned for.

Yesterday I saw it reported that China tested a hypersonic missile that the US was not aware they would have the technological capability for. China’s designs on Taiwan are apparent and they are actively building up military capability in the region. People seem to be saying that this conflict is still only on the distant horizon but I am less convinced given how wrong we have been so far on literally everything. If China were to occupy Taiwan I don’t know what would happen - for the west it’s a losing battle to try to defend. The AUKUS pact, as far as I can tell, is a defensive mechanism against the NEXT stage which would come after that. That is really scary. I don’t know where China’s territorial designs end. It’s more subtle belt and road initiative extends right into Europe. The EU god love them do appear to be asleep at the wheel, not for the first time and recent news about China’s influence in the WHO and even the IMF are also really concerning.

To be clear I don’t hate China or something. Please, no racism. It seems like an amazing place, Chinese people I know are fantastic and I want the people there to live happy lives with improving standards of living. We are so closely interlinked with China on a number of levels and that’s good and I don’t advocate isolationism. But at the same time the Chinese government there literally have internment camps, arrest people for opinions and they vocally want to take over other countries. I don’t really want any China-style policies to influence my life or the parts of the world I’ve lived, am from and love. The US is also a malign influence in its own way, I don’t appreciate the global American influence either in many respects, despite having lived years there. However I’m really concerned that the sands are all shifting a lot faster than anyone anticipated and that conflicts can’t actually be ruled out in this changing world order.

I didn’t read this until after I wrote this post, but this morning the Guardian also seems to have concerns as do other places www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/18/the-guardian-view-on-chinas-missile-launch-the-arrival-of-a-peer-competitor

What do you think?

@UsedUpUsername,

Your analysis is similar to mine.

I think the west have gone very soft and don’t have the backbone to compete with the Chinese intellectually.

If the West cannot work together and build a STEM capability way in excess of what we have now, together with a long term strategy (hard in liberal democracies), China will just slowly grind us down.

President’s Xi’s posturing is very much focussed on hanging on to power at home. The CCP feels they are losing control and are cracking down, the Chinese people aren’t happy at all and if they have the means they are making plans to get out. Their economy is built on sand and things like the Evergrande collapse are real threats to Xi’s power. The digital revolution means the under 25’s are far more likely to want individual autonomy which will lead to the disintegration of the whole show. I’m settling in with my 🍿.

The west cannot afford to go to war with anyone. If China or Russia decide to start taking territory there will be very little anyone can do bar blow the planet up.

@ShiftingSands21 I dont really think so. I dont actually understand the size and capability of US military though. I also dont know about India and what they might think.

I watched a documentary about the CCP thing though and I thought they could be the worlds superpower and never have a war.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a collapse in Evergrande and the fallout tying the Chinese government in knots for the foreseeable future. It's an appalling regime and Xi is genocidal.

China doesn't have to do anything. The West seems to be doing a perfect job of destroying itself with everything that is currently going on!

I hope Amazon deliver my boots before we do.

My worry though is Biden. Can we trust this man to do the right thing......whatever that is.

The world is always relatively unstable, there is always an underlying threat of war. I would imagine the biggest threat would be a cyber attack on our comms and infrastructure rather than boots on the ground. The development of weapons such as the one you are referring to is mainly to establish the potential to be a world leader, and a threat to the current status quo. Its unlikely though to amount to anything more without major, major reason- nuclear war won't be good for anyone involved.

Our (western world) window of opportunity was 10 years ago when we should’ve defaulted on our debts to them.

I think we are already in a Cold War with China tbh.

Agree that China can, to an extent, “take over the world” without any physical conflict, through trade, belt and road, technological capabilities, strategic alliances etc. I don’t agree that the fact they can do that offers much assurance that there wouldn’t be any conflicts as well.

@everythingcrossed

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a collapse in Evergrande and the fallout tying the Chinese government in knots for the foreseeable future. It's an appalling regime and Xi is genocidal.

Such a collapse is likely to hurt the west too, very painfully so. And a wider credit contagion scenario is not unlikely at all.

19th Century was the British Century
20th Century the American Century
21st Century the Chinese century.

There's very little anyone can do about Taiwan. It's a Chinese regime thing of little interest to the Chinese population.

China already owns the U.K. & the U.S. we've already 'lost'.

China has been behaving aggressively for some time now. This is the reality for their regional neighbours who have been well aware of this for years, and who have a very different perspective from mn users. The Japanese govt have just pushed through massive increases in defense spending- very wisely. That is one particular cage the Chinese may not wish to rattle.

The CCP do not concern themselves with notions such as racism when sizing up their next targets.

The Japanese govt have just pushed through massive increases in defense spending- very wisely.
I think Japan are more concerned about North Korea and their recent ballistic tests in Japanese waters.

I find it very odd that they have actual concentration camps in China and are committing all sorts of atrocities, but we aren’t doing anything about it. When Nazi Germany did that we went to war with them and freed the victims! Now I’m wondering if we only intervened because Germany was threatening to invade us personally, and we actually weren’t bothered about the concentration camps. Because we don’t seem too bothered about them right now.

Doesnt anyone else think its odd that Covid managed to spread all over the rest of the world, in particular Europe and America, killing hundreds of thousands, while there were hardly any cases or deaths in Beijing and Shanghai? Personally I think we are already at war with them, we just dont know it yet.

I think it’s something we will see in my lifetime.

I agree with you OP on the end of history thing although I would not have known it was called that - the Cold War had ended, Labour government came in, the excitement on the Millenium (still can’t spell it!), we hosted G8 (Bill Clinton and Tony Blair having a pint in Birmingham!) and cancelled loads of international debt, that ‘ethical foreign policy’ where we used our power to stand up against nasty dictators. Okay a lot of it was spin but we were young and it felt like as a nation and a world we were getting sorted, things were getting fairer, life was improving.

Bit shocking now to see how things have moved on!

Marelle We also ignored the mass rapes in Tigray and are currently ignoring food crises in Yemen, and then there is the situation in Syria too. Plus unknown stretches of Africa and climate refugees everywhere. Stop thinking of the west as having some kind of moral mission to reform the entire world, and certainly as having the power to do so. Geography matters: Germany is right next door to us.

But really - I can't believe it - they need to boot out these male leaders and have a few more women (with families) so they actually have a vested interest in the future of the world, and not how big their dick is compared to some other leader. I mean China is huge and making inroads into Africa, Middle East, even London why oh why do they need to also control Taiwan. Madness.

I don't think there'll be a war- they're too powerful now to need one. They essentially control Africa, most of Asia, and large parts of South America already.

I'd agree that the nineties were a time of hope with the promise of things improving. Then Blair showed himself as a neoliberalist and unleashed the full force of capitalist exploitation among us.

@Hellokittyninja

President’s Xi’s posturing is very much focussed on hanging on to power at home. The CCP feels they are losing control and are cracking down, the Chinese people aren’t happy at all and if they have the means they are making plans to get out. Their economy is built on sand and things like the Evergrande collapse are real threats to Xi’s power. The digital revolution means the under 25’s are far more likely to want individual autonomy which will lead to the disintegration of the whole show. I’m settling in with my 🍿.

I feel this is overly optimistic. Ordinary Chinese have become very prosperous, and they don’t really care about the surveillance state—that’s the way it’s always been, with little exception. They do not ache for Western-style freedoms, it seems to me they ached for Western modes of consumption and economic freedom (Tiananmen Massacre generation happily fell into this pattern as well)

Those with means get out to protect their assets, some of which were not earned in a transparent or ethical way, FYI. The usual pattern is for an upwardly mobile Chinese family to send children abroad for education, with an eye to them settling home to secure good jobs in one of the first-tier city.

I can assure you their economy is real, and has made a profound impact on the ordinary person. It’s not easily dismissed as a paper tiger, people really benefitted from market reforms. You sound like Victor Cha always hoping for the Chinese collapse. It will happen—but probably not anytime soon (and he’s been saying this is gonna happen soon for, oh, close to 25 years now … )