Taliban enter Kabul

[tttigress]

I was in my early 20's when 9/11 happened, the last 20 years has been overshadowed by endless wars without clearly defined objectives (original point of going into Afghanistan was to "get" Al Qaeda, there was then massive mission creep)

AIBU to think the last 20 years in Afghanistan was a total waste of time?

[quote DuncinToffee]I wonder if the Russians now think they can bully Europe, safe in the knowledge the USA will abandon their allies.
Russia already knew

news.sky.com/story/events-in-afghanistan-could-hardly-have-played-out-in-a-better-way-for-russia-12383629[/quote]

I'd argue that Russia and China have no choice now. How does it work for them to have a batshit Islamic orthodox stronghold on their doorstep? It potentially jeopardises China's Silk Road and threatens for radicalism to spill into the bordering ex Soviet countries and regions Russia has had problems with before. They have to step in now for the sake of their interests.

Id love to hear what mad dog Matiss thinks of this.

Thats true as well, russia has a huge problem with islamism, from chechnya especially, now they can add afghanistan to that list. They also have a massive heroin problem

Watching the debate in the background today .. as they debate who is helping all those stranded in Kabul and unable to safely get to the airport and desperately emailing / tweeting MPs? Am I missing something? Doesn't every hour count at the minute in trying to safe those currently left behind?

@BrozTito

It worked in 2001. Bombed them out of power whether you agree with the morality or not

Without taking the thread off into areas beyond it’s scope as I recall it the Taliban weren’t bombed out of power, nothing likely, and it’s misleading to suggest that they were.

AFAIK the air campaign post 9/11 proceeded/was in support of ground warfare by the Northern Alliance (remember them?), it was the old story of no matter how good your air power eventually you need the boots on the ground …and that’s how we got to where we are today.

Russia has had its fingers burnt in the recent past, so they may not be all that willing to go in again. China is a different matter.

There is a theory that this is in part the American strategy. Or at least their silver lining. Pull out of Afghanistan and leave it as a massive headache for the Russians and the Chinese. A mess to distract them with. Any energy and resources they have to put in to managing Afghanistan is energy and resources they don't have to interfere with American interests.

From Sky News

Shabnam Dawran, a well-known presenter for Afghan TV station RTA Pashto, has posted a video saying she was stopped from working by the Taliban today.

The full translation of her comments is: "I am Shabnam Dawran, I have been working here as a news presenter and my last job was with RTA doing the same.

"After the change of the regime, I did not lose my bravery and attended to my work.

"Unfortunately I was not allowed in despite carrying my ID badge. Male workers were allowed but I was threatened, they told me that the regime has changed so there are serious threats against us and if the international community can hear my voice, all relevant organisations should help us as our lives are under serious threat."

China are making a move similar to how they have done in Africa

Afghanistan: China has started negotiating with Talban to reopen, blocked copper mining from world’s second largest copper mine Mes Aynak with an estimated deposit of 5.5 million metric tonnes

twitter.com/MeghUpdates/status/1428001384272592901

Meanwhile this is what America is telling it's citizens

pbs.twimg.com/media/E9FqaTHXsAIwGrL?format=png&name=900x900

While the US military are staying on the base the UK 2 Paras are running patrols to collect people which is causing friction

mobile.twitter.com/RespectIsVital/status/1427973132044972034

Complete clusterfuck.

I'd argue that Russia and China have no choice now. How does it work for them to have a batshit Islamic orthodox stronghold on their doorstep? It potentially jeopardises China's Silk Road and threatens for radicalism to spill into the bordering ex Soviet countries and regions Russia has had problems with before. They have to step in now for the sake of their interests.

Absolutely agree with this. I suspect China will become the world's police and bumble into the same mistakes the US have made without the oil prize to lubricate the economy.

I won't shed too many tears for the Chinese government if they bog themselves down in Afghanistan and also face an ignominious retreat.

AFAIK the air campaign post 9/11 proceeded/was in support of ground warfare by the Northern Alliance (remember them?), it was the old story of no matter how good your air power eventually you need the boots on the ground …and that’s how we got to where we are today

We had boots on the ground, the ANA and Police, they have been doing that job since 2014.... the USA and UK withdrew the air power and Afghan moral collapsed... thats how we got to where we are now.

The UK has never had so little influence on world events, no surprise, Brexit and a comic PM.

Tugendhadt's and May's speeches were both interesting - work with European partners, re-evaluate NATO. Much criticism of one man in one country making the unilateral decision to withdraw in the manner it was done. Where is the Special relationship now?

Don't think fChina will have the same problem as the US, they don't care about human rights and are happy for other countries to treat their citizens how they like as long as it doesn't cause problems for them, politically or economically

They have been busy investing in other countries and getting them into debt- just look at any kind of attempted criticism of them from eg UN- the countries they have invested in will never agree to it- and many of these countries are muslim majority- but won't criticise the treatment of the Uighurs. China is already talking to the Taliban.

I wonder if it will bring China and Russia into some kind of conflict with America over this.

Thank you for this thread.

It is an area with a complex history which just gets more complex with every decade.

I'll admit that I was very muddled and unsure about what the issues actually were.

I've learned a lot from here, so, thanks.

Surely though from what you are all saying it’s the Afghan army that have let their own people down not the westerners ? Billions of dollars , years of training , enabling the women and children to see what life could be like . They had the man power and all the weapons and yet they appear to have just rolled over ?

Plus we have been taking people out and putting in place paperwork procedures . Plus the uk government had been advising people to leave over the last few months .

Once withdrawal but the USA had started and they had given the country the tools then what else could they do .

What worries me is all those people desperate to leave seemed to be mainly young men . Where were their families , wives and children ?

We had boots on the ground, the ANA and Police, they have been doing that job since 2014.... the USA and UK withdrew the air power and Afghan moral collapsed... thats how we got to where we are now.

And since 2012 it was pretty much common knowledge that it was a failed policy and the ANA was nothing more than a paper force and it was just a treading water excerise.

The UK has never had so little influence on world events, no surprise, Brexit and a comic PM.

I didn't imagine you being a little englander when the situation suits....

China won't have same problems they will bribe the Taliban with so much money they will do their bidding.

The Taliban will give China shit and China will give the Taliban shit. It will look like China are winning - they'll simply check uncooperative Taliban into their reeducation hotels - but the Taliban will always be up there in the hills waiting for a chance.

I'm still not sure yet which of then has bitten off more than they can chew...

@Unsure33

Surely though from what you are all saying it’s the Afghan army that have let their own people down not the westerners ? Billions of dollars , years of training , enabling the women and children to see what life could be like . They had the man power and all the weapons and yet they appear to have just rolled over ?

Plus we have been taking people out and putting in place paperwork procedures . Plus the uk government had been advising people to leave over the last few months .

Once withdrawal but the USA had started and they had given the country the tools then what else could they do .

What worries me is all those people desperate to leave seemed to be mainly young men . Where were their families , wives and children ?

Why did the Afghan army fold so quickly? I think the reasons are more complex than just "they're corrupt cowards". You're an army facing a highly zealous bloodthirsty enemy. Your much superior ally decides to up and leave you to it. Worse even, as your enemy advances, your former ally's experts and leaders are giving press statements such as "Kabul will fall in 6 months/90 days" or some such. Would that not make you think you were betrayed? And you probably wouldn't be far from the truth.

@Againstmachine

China won't have same problems they will bribe the Taliban with so much money they will do their bidding.

Disagree. They may try to bribe but will have the same outcome as Alexander the Great, the Moghuls, Indian empires, the Persians and the British. All these empires have invaded Afghanistan and lost to some degree. Islam was not invented in Afghanistan - it was introduced there by invading armies. A point not convenient for today's narrative of course. This is MN so bash the British.

The USA has a deep history and wears its heart on its sleeve where China has a longer shallower history. Somehow I think - and it will take time - the USA will come out of this era stronger out of all powers. There is only now US and Chinese perspectives which can influence the world through social, economic and military prowess. Whatever Europe is these days has no military power, but neither does Russia on a world stage.

But ultimately, it is Russia that will gain most over several generations. Its untapped natural resources and its position to weather climate change will make the largest country on this planet the most influential. That is some 60-90 years hence.

Disagree. They may try to bribe but will have the same outcome as Alexander the Great, the Moghuls, Indian empires, the Persians and the British. All these empires have invaded Afghanistan and lost to some degree. Islam was not invented in Afghanistan - it was introduced there by invading armies. A point not convenient for today's narrative of course. This is MN so bash the British.

Most empires have tried but today's world is different to the past I think the Taliban will accept money.

@Justanotherlurker

We had boots on the ground, the ANA and Police, they have been doing that job since 2014.... the USA and UK withdrew the air power and Afghan moral collapsed... thats how we got to where we are now.

And since 2012 it was pretty much common knowledge that it was a failed policy and the ANA was nothing more than a paper force and it was just a treading water excerise.

The UK has never had so little influence on world events, no surprise, Brexit and a comic PM.

I didn't imagine you being a little englander when the situation suits....

Yet the Taliban were at bay, 66k afghans died... you and your "common knowledge strikes again" more BS.

Don't get your last sentence, its the little englanders such as yourself that have caused this..... You have taken what little influence we did have and turned it to dust.