To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

[Rosehip10]

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

@ILoveAllRainbowsx

All the people wanting Proportional Representation should look at all the European Countries with extreme right parties in power or coalition becuause of it.

Look at how Denmark (which has a form of PR) is treating immigrants because of the extreme right

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/14/denmark-revokes-syrian-refugee-permits-under-new-policy

And all the other countries with extreme right parties.

The grass isn't always greener,

So glad you said this. No representative democracy is fair. The only "fair" democracy is direct (I.e. a referendum, and yet plenty of people saw fit to complain about the result of that one too).

At the end of the day FPP usually results in a stable government and over however many hundreds of years has not let us too badly astray yet.

I'm second gen immigrant/middle class who grew up under Blair but over the last 5-10 years I can completely see how Labour have denigrated their traditional voter base. From Emily Thornberry's comment about the flags, to Brexit to, now, all the nonsense gender Id stuff.

Labour have completely lost the plot and frankly don't deserve to be in charge.

But we are all poorer for having a weak opposition.

Fortunately the media - despite being some kind of right wing conspiracy that is laughably regularly bandied about on here - are the ones holding our government to account atm. The Mail and MOS are gunning for Boris every day. If you actually ever read the media you'd know.

There are several urgent things that labour need to be drop and first is, holding the moral card badge.
It's like saying "I'm a good person just because I consider myself to be Catholic."
Second is telling people what they think, should think and how they got those thoughts,usually via the daily mail.
Third they need to redefine who they represent now.
Fourth, get woman identity straight.

Yes, yes yes this!!! Start listening to the poorer people again. It’s like they are treating ‘working class’ as it is was the 1960s and helping the unions. The scenery has completely changed. They need to be clear on immigration too - this is where conservatives picked up loads of votes just by going around saying ‘it’s great to be British’ etc. Just like Trump. Everyone was ignoring the poor people in the bible belts of America, and Labour was ignoring people in the North.

They could also learn the politics of populism. Not to copy it, but to stop talking as if everyone wants a reasoned argument. They have great policies, but communicate them in a snappy way and fight a bit dirty. Keir Starmer should be brandishing phrases that sum up Boris and his corruption, and repeating them. Not talking so much like a barrister.

The media win elections. You need the media onside first.

We get the government we deserve so stop moaning since the majority (under current rules) is what we obviously want. Hence we have Conservative since enough are not upset with what they represent and the media in the main love the tories.

The thing that gives me hope, is that for much of the Blair years people were saying the Tories were finished.

William Hague, IDS and Michael Howard were all so unpopular as leaders and it looked like the Tories would never get back in. Many of the policies they are touting - and actually enacting - now were written off as lunatic right wing.

Then the press liked David Cameron and suddenly it was a systems go again for the Tories - back in power through the coalition, and then fully in government after that, while it was Labour’s turn to fall apart.

Makes me think that all Labour need are the press onside again, like Blair had, and it could all turn again.

But they carry on the way they are, maybe not!

If people feel that labour have let them down then labour have to dig deeper and understand what they mean by this. If it isn't true, then the party needs to concede they’re losing the PR battle

Politics is a tough game. Labour just aren’t playing smart enough

Why do folk feel labour have let them down? the people have voted for 11 years of tory rule, austerity and in CV one of the worst deaths tolls out there, certainly pre vaccine.

On our community fb many tories are complaining about house building and poor sewage infrastructure... they voted for this, yet several blamed Labour!!!

I feel Lab will never gain power again, its just not possible, brexit has changed the political landscape for good, an ever older population and failure in Scotland, means they can't get the numbers.

As to the media, its where many people get their news, whether its reading a headline or a passed around paper at work.. it gradually sinks in.

Why is Johnson so well known and Starmer isn't? the media highlight one and ignore the other, just as over brexit issues, its portrayed as an EU problem, sky bbc itv they all do it, no one highlights this was a uk choice and a uk agreed deal.

I agree. I think Boris has fucked up so many things since he was elected, lied about so many things, broken so many laws and guidelines...but people have such a low bar for politicians they don't care. They also have short memories, I feel like the brexit shitshow has already been forgotten, the tens of thousands of needless deaths from our slow covid response etc...the vaccine roll out by the nhs was good and people are pleased with this, think it was due to him, and that's what they remember

Not talking so much like a barrister.

^^
I think his problem is that he talks and acts like a civil servant rather than a barrister. Although I know what you mean. The kind of barrister who addresses a jury would be quite useful probably.

(Disclaimer - I’m actually both!)

I think Starmer is worse than Corbyn.

What does he stand for?

I voted Labour but the party needs a shake up. It needs someone with some spirit that engages and listens to the publics concerns.

I'm a working man and feel labour offer me nothing .With them there no incentive to better and support yourself soon as people are successful they dispes them .

@Elai1978

We can only hope!

Yes, let's crush the poor and disabled. I mean, fuck 'em, right?

Many insightful posts on this thread.
The main theme is that Labour are complete out of touch with most voters. They will never have a government until they start to reflect what the average person in this country, cares about. And when they’re faced with being lectured to, a great example is the whole “you can change sex and if you don’t believe that, you are a bigoted transphobe”, they realise they cannot trust those people, no matter what their policies, and they will go and vote for “good old Boris” who’s rather entertaining, a bit shambolic, but aren’t we all?

@ghostyslovesheets

I am dreading the fall out because so many people feel the answer to people voting Tory is to move MORE to the left - yeah because if people wanted that they would vote for a far left party.

Like it or not we do not live in a nation that likes the idea of extremes - we like middle of the road - Blair got that and it worked - Kier needs to get some actual policies and stop being a fanny

and yes listen to bloody women and working class people - stop being woolly or trying to be a Marxist party - good social democracy is the way forward

Sir Keir Starmer is a Marxist? Right.......

Labour won't win for a while because:

• Their traditional supporters have melted away except in Wales, espec in Scotland and north of England

• Their current core fanbase (urban idealists) is too small

• They haven't communicated what their policies are or who those policies will benefit

• The Tories have successfully united right-wing voters (no more Brexit party, UKIP etc)

• There's too many left-wing parties - a disaster for all of them under first past the post electoral system

• Vaccine bounce, people are feeling more optimistic now so more likely to support current government. Current government choose the timing of elections so next time may well be no different

Good government, properly accountable, needs good opposition so the current situation is bad for everyone. Labour needs to get it's policies and appeal together fast and form electoral pacts as appropriate at election time. Otherwise OP is right, the Tories will be in for years.

GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing

Not talking so much like a barrister.

^^
I think his problem is that he talks and acts like a civil servant rather than a barrister. Although I know what you mean. The kind of barrister who addresses a jury would be quite useful probably.

(Disclaimer - I’m actually both!)“

Agree: I’ve always thought that for a barrister, he’s a very poor communicator and public speaker. His q&a after the Hartlepool result was embarrassing to listen to. An awful lot of earnest waffle but not a single answer of any substance.

@FilthyforFirth

I dont think there will be another Labour govt in my lifetime and I am beyond gutted about it.

I honestly just dont understand the British public, I never will. Covid incompetence, Brexit shambles and such blatant cronyism and provable lies (border in the Irish sea for example) yet people have still fallen over themselves to give them more power. I reckon they will get an even bigger majority in 2024.

So fucking depressing.

Agreed. It does appear that most Brits are utterly illiterate, in terms of politics. Saying they voted Tory because they just want a police officer to turn up when they dial 999 because they were burgled/assaulted. The Tories have spent their decade in power cutting all services, including the police.

Sadly, people just don't like their own ignorance and gullibility explained.

Back when Brexit happened, I heard so many people insisting they voted to Leave the EU because they wanted their kids to be able to attend a normal school, not an oversubscribed one. "The schools and numbers are the UK government's responsibility. Nothing to do with the EU." "Don't you tell *me what to think...."

Or the bollocks about taking back control. Of *what, precisely? The UK has always retained control over its own borders (which is why we have passports). There is also a very useful rule that any EU member state had the right to repatriate any person who didn't have enough funds to support themselves if they stayed more than 3 months. No state was obliged to do that, so the Tories ignored that rule, then blamed the EU for it....

Reading some of the posts here has absolutely demonstrated that political illiteracy. The Tories lie all the time, and *still people vote for them. It's a shitty relationship, and one that if anyone posted about it otherwise, people would be posting "That's an abusive relationship:
they're lying to you. Why are you putting up with that shit? LTB". Instead, people vote for more of it.

@bookworm1632
The trouble is things like Climate Change, minority rights and foreign good causes seem to be at the fore-front of Labour's manifesto, but they're of little concern to the majority of working class voters - which has led to the view, widely-held, that the Labour party no longer represents them.

Totally agree with this. While the things listed are admirable the true things Ex Labour voters ( me being one) care most about is how they are going to get through the next 12 months fiscally, about whether their jobs are still going to be there, whether they are going to afford housing or the state of education in their area just to name a few.

People can not think about wider world issues such as climate change and minority issues until their feel secure in their own lives. But time and time again they are put down for thinking like that and we have had enough.

Democracy is fucked in all the countries of mainland Britain. No effective opposition to the SNP in Scotland, to the conservatives in England (and UK) and to Labour in Wales. It is a sorry state of affairs.

Labour were in decline before Jeremy Corbyn and momentum repeatedly kicked the party in the teeth, and the division in the party opened up by Brexit just stuck the knife in. And that meme ' Britain is awful and you people are all scum', the party REALLY needs to pay heed to that. We all laugh at that because we recognise those labour supporters, we do see Labour as being like that - all those people were bloody out in force on the Hartleypool thread yesterday! All those factors together mean Labour is seriously fucked unless it can radically change not just its policies but its entire nature. Too many people see Labour as hate filled, toxic and contemptuous TOWARDS ORDINARY VOTERS. The party needs to wake up to that and take it seriously.

A huge problem with Sir Kier Stammer is his presumed insistence that people call him “Sir” (if he didn’t want it, he could tell every interviewer not to use it and they would soon stop). It reeks of establishment and privilege.
Yes I know Johnson and his government have that in spades, but they don’t want to remind you of it, every time they are addressed.

Minority issues do not win majorities at elections. Very few people care about the war in Iraq/Palestine/PMQs (PMQs being completely meaningless and irrelevant to 99% of the population). It is difficult to pin Tories as the sleaze/corruption party when many people’s experience of Labour is jobs for the boys unions and local councils like Liverpool. As the unions become more concentrated in public sectors, they are increasingly out of touch with most working people and are defending conditions and benefits that are simply so far out of reach for most people.

I don’t think Scotland is particularly left wing, if anything they are fairly small c conservative. They are anti Tory - and at the moment the “best” party for that is SNP. I’d be wary of reading too much into left/right wing allegiance because of that.

The lower middle/working class haven’t been Labour for a while - why would they be? It’s the party that likes to tell them that government knows best. The middle class might see a gradual drift to Labour because some of their children are seeing backwards mobility, which they like to blame the government on. Got a degree of dubious quality and can’t afford a house because you spent 10 years in your 20s drifting, supported financially and emotionally by your parents? Blame the government, plus add in some nice self righteous nonsense about minorities so you can wring your hands and vote Labour.

Got a trade out of college, live close to your family who can provide cheap childcare and live somewhere outside the SE where you can live more affordably? Things probably aren’t too bad.

They could also learn the politics of populism. Not to copy it, but to stop talking as if everyone wants a reasoned argument. They have great policies, but communicate them in a snappy way and fight a bit dirty. Keir Starmer should be brandishing phrases that sum up Boris and his corruption, and repeating them. Not talking so much like a barrister.

But if you listen to PMQ, Boris Johnson sounds like a flustered bumbling idiot without any definitive answers when questioned by Keir Starmer....and yet thousands of people voted him the most competent person to run the country. It's really depressing!
Think how straight forward the stay at home bulletins would have been if delivered in normal language, without "alas" every 3 sentences ,warlike metaphors and plenty of waffle.

@YouJustDoYou

Thank God.

Absolutely.

I honestly just dont understand the British public, I never will. Covid incompetence, Brexit shambles and such blatant cronyism and provable lies (border in the Irish sea for example) yet people have still fallen over themselves to give them more power. I reckon they will get an even bigger majority in 2024

You are asking the wrong question. You need to ask why, when the conservative party have done so badly (though at this election they are doing well with the vaccine programme), are Labour still so unelectable? That is what you need to answer. Railing against people for not voting for you and calling them thick is exactly why they are not voting for you. How many times do you need that lesson to be repeated before you grasp it?
If you want to know why people don't vote Labour look not further than yourself. It is exactly because of people like you that I stopped voting Labour. And I' m sad about that. But the party needs to start respecting voters if it wants to earn their vote. Yes, you have to EARN it.

@HesterBlue. You're absolutely correct about the Tories uniting all the right-wing voters. The UK has become an increasingly nasty place to be for many people. May started a Hostile environment policy, and Patel has continued it. Patel has pulled up the ladder behind her so fast, it's appalling.

The current govt is further right-wing than anything I've seen in the UK for a very long time. When I was a child (in the 1970s) it was considered shameful to be a member/supporting the BNP, or anyone so far right. At this point, millions of people are voting for exactly that.

@rwalker

I'm a working man and feel labour offer me nothing .With them there no incentive to better and support yourself soon as people are successful they dispes them .

Having read Labours manifesto and listened to their core beliefs, i disagree. Health, education, public services all are what labour are about and nothing i have read or heard leads me to think they despise success, Starmer and Raynor both came from relatively humble beginnings, both bettered themselves. Its is the tories that keep you under, with sky hi rent, , super high house prices, low wages, almost non existent adult aducation and vanity projects for themselves.

Unfortunately, they also have a fantastic PR machine, so successful that people now think Bojo is one of them.....

@LizzieSiddal

A huge problem with Sir Kier Stammer is his presumed insistence that people call him “Sir” (if he didn’t want it, he could tell every interviewer not to use it and they would soon stop). It reeks of establishment and privilege. Yes I know Johnson and his government have that in spades, but they don’t want to remind you of it, every time they are addressed.

Starmer should have renounced his title as soon as he wanted to be leader, too late now, it would be portayed as desparation.