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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

750 replies

Rosehip10 · 08/05/2021 09:17

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

OP posts:
woodhill · 09/05/2021 19:40

@Thelnebriati

woodhill Shame Tony Blair even started the free movement in the first place

It was John Major that signed The Maastricht Treaty.

Yes absolutely but TB did encourage a lot of immigration generally when NL were in power
Onetoomuch · 09/05/2021 19:42

Agree @User135644 one thing I regret is egging on the whole voting down Theresa May"s deal and hoping for a second referendum. Brexit would have been 'done' a lot earlier and Johnson might never have got into power.Sad

User135644 · 09/05/2021 19:56

@Onetoomuch

Agree *@User135644* one thing I regret is egging on the whole voting down Theresa May"s deal and hoping for a second referendum. Brexit would have been 'done' a lot earlier and Johnson might never have got into power.Sad
It was bad strategy, but it didn't help that a lot of Labour wanted Corbyn out anyway so were prepared to risk a general election hammering by pushing for another referendum.

It wasn't just Labour though, all the opposition parties had no intention of voting in parliament for May's deal or any other deal.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 20:00

Don't forget that Johnson and the ERG were happy to vote down May's deal. There were enough of them to scupper the deal regardless of the Opposition parties.

NewYearNewTwatName · 09/05/2021 20:01

The eastern european workforce were there to fill a gap like fruit picking, working in factories etc, doing jobs that the local workforce didn't want to do because they were so back breaking and badly paid

I worked in not fruit picking but a similar industry. The above is simple not true.

When I joined the industry, the core staff were working class, they had permanent full time jobs. Seasonal staff were brought in, local students in the holidays, contractors(worked for an agency that found work for them throughout the year) and anyone looking for job.

JSA was quite flexible allowing people to take on weeks of seasonal work, without it causing major disruption for weeks on end because of signing off and on, due to seasonal work.

Quite often other seasonals workers would get permanent work. Occasionally a summer student would applie for permanent work and drop out of Uni.
most permanent were put through NVQs going upto level 4.

I didn't see anything wrong with the changes that occurred at the time as things slowly changed.

The first year Eastern European workers came, they lived on site in caravans, were lovely people and hard working. (that year though no students, contractors, or opportunist were taken on)

Same the next year. The contracting agency for the local seasonals folded.

Some eastern Europeans stayed and settled down took permanent work, and rented houses and started families. most returned home at the end of the year.

20 years later the structure of the industry is completely different now, So yes when you suddenly take away the staff they rely on, there is a hole, you can't just call a local seasonal agency anymore they've all gone.

you can't get the skilled staff for the permanent full time jobs, because mostly they are home grown from original seasonal staff. Which are all now EE, so if some permanent staff go due to Brexit, and you can't bring anyone up from the seasonals either because of Brexit then yes its fucked.

and unfortunately the bottom line is, what happened to the jobs that locals use to be able to find? That is why in some areas people were upset with the unbridled immigration.

XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:05

@User135644, I don't totally disagree with you, but the ideas coming out of young woke Labour are divisive. Splitting identity politics and saying the old colonialist conspiracy is to blame contradicts my travel experience, in which most people said the biggest problem with the empire was that it ended before the job was finished.

Like it or not, Labour politics and voters grew out of and from the people who did hard dirty jobs. Now those people feel shat upon by the woke metropolitan graduate elite who worry about personal pronouns, identity and trans issues. None of which puts bread on the table.

Grow up and focus on real life, like most people. We have a small business in the SW. The locality is 98% white, and so are we. That doesn't mean we dislike POC; just that there are very few. We employ a gay woman, so what; she's great at her job. Please stop painting everyone outside your circle as pale, male and gammon. It's getting beyond tedious.

XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:09

An over reaction on my part...

tilder · 09/05/2021 20:12

Unlike several posters, I find it difficult to reconcile repeated strong electoral defeat with the idea that Corbyn had awesome policies with widespread support. Corbyn policies did not have widespread support. Thats why the last election was a crushing defeat for Labour.

Most people are fairly centrist in their politics, leaning slightly left or slightly right. Most won't support someone they see as bordering on communism. They do seem to be slightly more tolerant of the harder right.

I suspect support for Boris is his populist appeal, Brexit and vaccines. Plus a lack of a viable alternative to vote for. How that support holds up when the real world starts to return will be interesting.

Labour need to appeal to a majority to win. They don't. So they won't.

I had high hopes for Starmer but being in opposition in a global pandemic can't be easy. Plus the whole Corbyn hangover and Momentum.

tilder · 09/05/2021 20:12

I say that as a labour party member...

NewYearNewTwatName · 09/05/2021 20:19

Can I just add that I don't blame the Eastern European workers there was work to had so why not? or even the company owners who just saw the benefit of reliable on site workers.

The fault lies with there being no cap or regulations on the amount of immigration, or making sure that there was still opportunities for locals. Most companies employed straight from a Eastern European country, classed them as students and sent them to English classes.(there English was usually pretty good anyway)

User135644 · 09/05/2021 20:21

[quote MmeLaraque]@HesterBlue. You're absolutely correct about the Tories uniting all the right-wing voters. The UK has become an increasingly nasty place to be for many people. May started a Hostile environment policy, and Patel has continued it. Patel has pulled up the ladder behind her so fast, it's appalling.

The current govt is further right-wing than anything I've seen in the UK for a very long time. When I was a child (in the 1970s) it was considered shameful to be a member/supporting the BNP, or anyone so far right. At this point, millions of people are voting for exactly that.[/quote]
In the 1970's the most popular UK politician was Enoch Powell, who was the Farage of his day. He left the government though and the NF rose in his place, who were openly racist thugs. Same way as UKIP positioned themselves well and BNP didn't, even if the policy wasn't that difference.

Thatcher government was far more right wing. Boris is a political pragmatist, he goes where the public are, which has made him so electorally successful. He has no political dogma or principles.

Thatcher destroyed the north of England with right wing conservatism. Whatever you think of the Tories they're doing a great job in starting to win the north back.

Moonstone1234 · 09/05/2021 20:22

Tidler. I agree. The worst defeat since 1935, McDonnell trying to nationalise everything that wasn’t nailed down, gender issues, pronouns, woke this and that. It didn’t resonate with the voters and if they want to be in opposition for a generation just carry on with this agenda. It will take a brave leader to chuck out Momentum and the looney left woke ideas. Look at the way they are talking now. Saying that Burnham could be the answer. He wasn’t the answer a number of times before. Why now? Is that there is literally no one else?

It will of course come to pass that someone will come along and change things for LP but they MUST be middle ground. The UK are not massively left leaning and certainly not Hard Left so if Labour want a shot at the election after next (I don’t believe they have a hope in hell of 2024) they need to move to the centre and that really won’t be happening any time soon.

User135644 · 09/05/2021 20:23

@Peregrina

Don't forget that Johnson and the ERG were happy to vote down May's deal. There were enough of them to scupper the deal regardless of the Opposition parties.
The ERG on their own couldn't win a majority in parliament then. Only with the backing of all the opposition parties. That's why May risked her majority hoping to win a landslide which Boris did in 2019. That way she'd have got her deal through without needing ERG votes.
the80sweregreat · 09/05/2021 20:26

There's another by election in west York coming up soon as the mayor has to stand aside as an MP. If Labour lose this seat it'll be even more misery for Sir Kier.

XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:26

I am centrist: for sensible economic policy (defined as what can be afforded or financed at sensible rate of interest) who understands that older people who have stopped earning money need their savings to pay interest, but socially liberal... so I am pleased to see my gay friends no longer dying of AIDS, and able to marry/form civil partnerships. On race issues, I have been a white person living in a black part of NY metropolitan area, and I don't think I have personally been a party to any oppression. But I mostly vote conservative.

XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:31

@User135644, with you on political pragmatism. We need more of it... preferably not Boris.

XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:35

Tjhat said, I voted Labour for the local vote, Lib dem for county and Labour for police commissioner on Thursday... based on the individual candidates.

tilder · 09/05/2021 20:35

@XingMing

I am centrist: for sensible economic policy (defined as what can be afforded or financed at sensible rate of interest) who understands that older people who have stopped earning money need their savings to pay interest, but socially liberal... so I am pleased to see my gay friends no longer dying of AIDS, and able to marry/form civil partnerships. On race issues, I have been a white person living in a black part of NY metropolitan area, and I don't think I have personally been a party to any oppression. But I mostly vote conservative.
I am pretty similar. Except I don't vote conservative.

I struggle with the individualism of it. That it's about enabling individuals to rise and keep the fruits of their labour. Just as long as it's only certain individuals and sod the rest.

Equally I can't do too much left. The left despise people like me. A woman who works. A couple who earn above an arbitrary threshold. I guess I would be viewed as champagne socialist.

I am a member of the Labour party. Just not active as I believe I am an adult human female, something not compatible with involvement in my local party.

OvaHere · 09/05/2021 20:38

@the80sweregreat

There's another by election in west York coming up soon as the mayor has to stand aside as an MP. If Labour lose this seat it'll be even more misery for Sir Kier.
I'd be quite shocked if Labour lose that one. I don't think they will but you never know currently. West Yorkshire overall leans towards Labour despite blue pockets here and there, hence Tracy Brabin fairly comfortably taking the Mayoral seat.
tilder · 09/05/2021 20:38

@XingMing

Tjhat said, I voted Labour for the local vote, Lib dem for county and Labour for police commissioner on Thursday... based on the individual candidates.
I voted for local candidates on Thursday too. Our current county councillor is a nasty piece of work, but people vote on party lines here.
XingMing · 09/05/2021 20:58

@Tilder, I figure that i am paying all the tax required and take very little in return for them, can't remember the last time I visited a doctor apart from the Covid vaccine. And at nearly 65, I shall be paying for any social care I may need too. I pay my dues, happily, but don't want to be painted as any shade of privileged or entitled. Thus far, I have contributed everything asked of me, and paid my way in life. The black and white hard contrast narrative is divisive.

User135644 · 09/05/2021 20:59

[quote XingMing]@User135644, I don't totally disagree with you, but the ideas coming out of young woke Labour are divisive. Splitting identity politics and saying the old colonialist conspiracy is to blame contradicts my travel experience, in which most people said the biggest problem with the empire was that it ended before the job was finished.

Like it or not, Labour politics and voters grew out of and from the people who did hard dirty jobs. Now those people feel shat upon by the woke metropolitan graduate elite who worry about personal pronouns, identity and trans issues. None of which puts bread on the table.

Grow up and focus on real life, like most people. We have a small business in the SW. The locality is 98% white, and so are we. That doesn't mean we dislike POC; just that there are very few. We employ a gay woman, so what; she's great at her job. Please stop painting everyone outside your circle as pale, male and gammon. It's getting beyond tedious.[/quote]
Yeah, I made the point that the identity politics is what lets down the left and why they won't be voted in.

When you break it down Ed Miliband and then Corbyn had a lot of good policy ideas though from the left (as much as a mess the 2019 manifesto was). May took a lot of Ed's policies and Boris has took some of Corbyn's.

Starmer doesn't seem to have any and Blairism/Cameronism was essentially killed off with Brexit.

User135644 · 09/05/2021 21:03

so if Labour want a shot at the election after next (I don’t believe they have a hope in hell of 2024) they need to move to the centre and that really won’t be happening any time soon.

Keir Starmer is near enough a centrist (he's not left or right) and nobody knows what the hell he stands for.

Just being in the centre isn't enough if you haven't got a vision, a strategy and a charismatic leader.

Blossomtoes · 09/05/2021 21:08

[quote Clavinova]Blossomtoes

Part explanation for the results in Cambridgeshire here. Scroll down to South Cambridgeshire - Labour didn't field a candidate in six seats, so some sort of alliance/pact? e.g.

Bar Hill - LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON

Lynda Harford - Conservative - 1,345
Edna Murphy - Liberal Democrats - 1,500 ELECTED
Stan Rankin - Green - 494

Hardwick LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON

Michael Atkins - Liberal Democrats - 1,865 ELECTED
Lina Nieto - Conservative - 1,860
Colin Reynolds - Green - 590

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/elections-2021-cambridgeshire-county-council-results-9198242/[/quote]
None of that is remotely relevant to the fact that we have a Labour mayor in an area that’s largely Tory Central.

tilder · 09/05/2021 21:20

I completely agree that left/right politics is divisive. Part of why I would rather be middle ground. Part of why American politics is so divided. It's also what we currently have.

As for Keir Starmer, I don't know what he stands for either. With his background I would hope he is intelligent, decent and fair. I hope he is trying to unite the party and remove the stranglehold exerted by a small number of pretty left wing individuals.

I think attacking the government at every turn in a global pandemic would have been a bad decision. I will be very interested to see how he handles it from now.

A weak opposition is a terrible thing in politics, regardless of which side you support.