To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

[Rosehip10]

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

@Bythemillpond - I referred to a claim by BigWoollyJumpers that Wales had the highest deaths/million in the union, which is incorrect. The article I linked to contains a summary of UK data, showing that England's death/100,000 is the highest of the UK nations.

I didn't say anything about total deaths, or where the UK stands globally, or in comparison to other countries in Europe (nor did BigWoollyJumpers).

@Thelnebriati

woodhill Shame Tony Blair even started the free movement in the first place

It was John Major that signed The Maastricht Treaty.

I vaguely remember all the furore about the Maastricht Treaty but when you study it, it seems very uncontroversial. And there was previous furore apparently about bringing in basic employment rights in the 1970s.

I think Maastricht shouldn't be confused with the expansion of the EU to include many former Eastern European member states. I really think that had a lot to do with the Brexit vote, rather than free movement in itself. Having to compete with Eastern European workforces who could be recruited en masse for a season or with builders who don't pay much tax because they are too hard to trace, did a lot of damage to the work prospects of ordinary people. Its very different being a member of an exclusive club of fairly rich western european countries and suddenly having to prop up former communist regmes.

This was where Blair catastrophically underestimated how many E Europeans from the newly accessioned states would want to come. He could have put a stay on the numbers, as Germany did, but didn't bother.

However, it was my recollection that Major originally pushed for the eastward expansion - too soon IMO. At a guess this was partly to take them out of the orbit of Russia.

What's a no mark like laurence fox got to do with anything ? Just a wanabe farage figure

The eastern european workforce were there to fill a gap like fruit picking, working in factories etc, doing jobs that the local workforce didn't want to do because they were so back breaking and badly paid. Local employers are now saying fruit is rotting on the trees due to labour shortages. Most people in this country don't want to get up at some unearthly hour to do boring repetative work in all weathers but foreign workers do and were exploited accordingly.

@Onetoomuch

The eastern european workforce were there to fill a gap like fruit picking, working in factories etc, doing jobs that the local workforce didn't want to do because they were so back breaking and badly paid. Local employers are now saying fruit is rotting on the trees due to labour shortages. Most people in this country don't want to get up at some unearthly hour to do boring repetative work in all weathers but foreign workers do and were exploited accordingly.

Fruit picking isn't the only sector affected though.

One thing I find incredulous about the enlargement of the EU is the Posting of Workers Directive. This literally allows rich countries to pay workers from other countries the same wages and conditions as in their home country, not for example the minimum wage in Germany. And people do it, because of jobs shortages in Portugal or Spain or wherever.

@Onetoomuch. I totally agree but it saddens me that with so many people out of work (and I don't refer to Covid times) the British/English folk won't get out of their pits to give up their benefits to do an honest day's work. Much like voluntary work it would enhance their CV's.
I suspect I will be slated for a comment like this.

@Onetoomuch

The eastern european workforce were there to fill a gap like fruit picking, working in factories etc, doing jobs that the local workforce didn't want to do because they were so back breaking and badly paid. Local employers are now saying fruit is rotting on the trees due to labour shortages. Most people in this country don't want to get up at some unearthly hour to do boring repetative work in all weathers but foreign workers do and were exploited accordingly.

I'm not surprised when they can earn up to £2500 for sitting at home doing nothing.

[quote Fliss444]@Onetoomuch. I totally agree but it saddens me that with so many people out of work (and I don't refer to Covid times) the British/English folk won't get out of their pits to give up their benefits to do an honest day's work. Much like voluntary work it would enhance their CV's.
I suspect I will be slated for a comment like this.[/quote]
It's the truth.

If Boris Johnson is capable of winning unthinkable red wall seats for the Tories than a good Labour is capable of winning them back and more.

Someone like Andy Burnham wouldn't have lost all those northern voters.

@the80sweregreat

I could never vote conservative but many of my friends and family do and read the daily Mail and sometimes quote it... these people were traditionally Labour voters. Where I live in the south East people don't consider themselves' working class ' anymore even though they are! Lots of money from property floating around too. Made people selfish and ' I'm alright Jack ' attitude. Moan about cuts to vital services but also make excuses for it. We are now a right wing country.

Electorally, voters in England at least, as a majority voting block, turn progressively rightwards from their 40's.

The seats Labour still hold are where there's a lot of younger people (big cities/Uni towns etc). In the northern towns that have gone Tory, the younger people have fled to the cities either for Uni or to look for a decent job and they don't go back.

So where does our future lie? It doesn't lie with oldies like me. So Labour could profitably concentrate on what they can offer to young people.

@Onetoomuch

The eastern european workforce were there to fill a gap like fruit picking, working in factories etc, doing jobs that the local workforce didn't want to do because they were so back breaking and badly paid. Local employers are now saying fruit is rotting on the trees due to labour shortages. Most people in this country don't want to get up at some unearthly hour to do boring repetative work in all weathers but foreign workers do and were exploited accordingly.

Fruit picking is one fairly small sector. The bigger problem is the building industry, delivery drivers, etc., where cheap Eastern European workers have really impacted our own long term workers.

Agree @Kazzyhoward but I remember when you couldn't get a decent plumber, builder or tiler for love nor money. Suddenly in the early 2000's that changed and we were no longer held hostage by a minority of shoddy tradesman. Whether long term that was a good thing, who knows, maybe not, maybe british ones upped there game.
I don't just think it's solely eastern European workers. These workers are from all over the world. I know someone who tried to get a job with amazon in a delivery warehouse and most of the applicants were from africa.

As long as borders can be penetrated, there will be a pull factor for brave people to try to get to Eldorado. And Europe is Eldorado. If your life at home is living 5 to a room and being shot at, then living five to a room and not being shot at is a step up.

A decade ago, after a life changing health scare, our family took a sabbatical and travelled. We spent two months in Sri Lanka, and made friends with a young taxi driver. Because DH is inquisitive, he questioned the man about how his life worked. It turned out that in 2008, he earned 65p per day after paying for the vehicle he drove and the fuel, for his wife and toddler. So (because we had already spent a lot on our travels and felt a bit guilty that we were so fortunate) we bought a vehicle for him outright. And for the next ten years, we paid his daughter's school fees (because in Sri Lanka education is NOT provided by the state) until she got a scholarship to senior school. But that lass and he younger sister are going to have a future through education. CAFOD is my favourite charity. It educates girls. Because educated women is such a massive lever in improving the quality of life in any society. The better educated the woman, the better the life chances of her children.

@flyingtartar

Starmer has been as ineffective at reaching out to all views in the Party as was Corbyn , arguably worse which is some achievement.

But that was part of my post - he is bad at reaching out to all views because it's impossible to do so and, arguably, it does more harm than good anyway. He should stop trying to appease the left and tell them where to go if they don't like it. I think a split is inevitable really as I think there are two competing groups there who just can't create a coherent plan together.

The reality is, it's not 1997 anymore and the Labour right/moderates are bang out of ideas and strategy.

The Labour left is where the policy ideas and vision are, but they get bogged down in the identity/woke issues.

@Peregrina

So where does our future lie? It doesn't lie with oldies like me. So Labour could profitably concentrate on what they can offer to young people.

Old people win you elections though, which is why we usually get Conservative governments.

The Labour left is where the policy ideas and vision are

You can have all the ideas and vision you like, but if the electorate aren’t interested it doesn’t mean squat.

The country hasn’t elected a properly left leaning government in almost 50 years. I see no evidence that this will change in the foreseeable.

@Peregrina

So where does our future lie? It doesn't lie with oldies like me. So Labour could profitably concentrate on what they can offer to young people.

It's well known that younger people tend to vote on the left and older vote on the right. That's how it's been for the last 40 years I've been voting. The thing is that young people are idealistic and don't have "real world" experience. When people get older, they tend to move to the right of the political spectrum. I remember 30 years ago, people saying that Tony Blair won in 1997 because of young left voters and the Tories would never get in again!

And to a degree, that provides a useful brake. If you promise forward and assume and spend tomorrow's income now... it's called living above your means. All governments borrow to fund infrastructure, because it's an investment. But borrowing to pay today's benefits is not an investment.

@Onetoomuch

Agree *@Kazzyhoward* but I remember when you couldn't get a decent plumber, builder or tiler for love nor money. Suddenly in the early 2000's that changed and we were no longer held hostage by a minority of shoddy tradesman. Whether long term that was a good thing, who knows, maybe not, maybe british ones upped there game. I don't just think it's solely eastern European workers. These workers are from all over the world. I know someone who tried to get a job with amazon in a delivery warehouse and most of the applicants were from africa.

There are plenty of shoddy Eastern European tradesmen. We've had our fair share, including a decorator we found pouring a cheap paint into a Dulux paint pot, and an electrician who left our wiring in a dangerous, literally "shocking" state - he'd twisted wires together behind sockets instead of properly lengthening them (amongst other things!).

There is a very very old proverb in politics: if you are not a socialist at 18 then your heart is malfunctioning; if you are still a socialist at 50, then your brain is malfunctioning.

@XingMing

And to a degree, that provides a useful brake. If you promise forward and assume and spend tomorrow's income now... it's called living above your means. All governments borrow to fund infrastructure, because it's an investment. But borrowing to pay today's benefits is not an investment.

That reminds me of Brown trying to put public sector wages (nurses I think) down as "investments" instead of revenue spending/expenses on the grounds that paying nurses more was an "investment" in the country's future healthcare. The IMF didn't let him get away with it!

@TheKeatingFive

The Labour left is where the policy ideas and vision are

You can have all the ideas and vision you like, but if the electorate aren’t interested it doesn’t mean squat.

The country hasn’t elected a properly left leaning government in almost 50 years. I see no evidence that this will change in the foreseeable.

Yes, but they've also had the wrong leaders. Corbyn couldn't lead a dog on a leash, Michael Foot, Ed Milliband.

Boris Johnson has an appeal with people beyond policy and people like him. Fuck knows why, but they do.

Corbyn forced a hung parliament in 2017.Then they committed political suicide over a second referendum, after committing to honour the result. Ed Milliband lost a winnable election in 2015 because the public didn't take to him and he had an image problem. His policies were decent.

Now, I don't think Corbyn was ever PM material, but with the right leader a broadly centre-left candidate could win in the right circumstances. Corbyn was admittedly too far left for the majority in England. There's a whole gap politically between Corbyn of the hard left and Blairite Neoliberalism.

Cambridgeshire resident here - Labour were completely unprepared to win the mayors race. I doubt anyone here could name a Labour policy but it’s seen as the “right” thing to do among the well educated Cambridgeshire IT/higher tech workforces. It was a good example of how PR works but I remain to be convinced that the mayoral candidate has the experience to do a good job. Interestingly, the Conservative candidate was a milkman, the Labour candidate a consultant paediatrician…

Politics here is increasingly tribal in the manner of pits and mining towns. No one at my work would dare to admit to voting Conservative!