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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

750 replies

Rosehip10 · 08/05/2021 09:17

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

OP posts:
CirclesWithinCircles · 09/05/2021 10:46

@Peregrina

Labour needs to appeal to English voters.

Yet many of the policies Corbyn proposed were quite popular.
The Tory Mayor of Teesside has done things like take the local airport back into public ownership, which seems quite socialist, and a long long way from Thatcherism. So what exactly do Labour need to do?

In the other Mayoral contests so far declared the Labour Mayors held onto their seats, but two Tory Mayors lost. Labour did well in Wales, so somewhere Labour is doing things that people want.

This is just a long established trend in British politics to elect Labour politicians at local level but Conservative at national level. Labour are sen as good at the smaller stuff but a bit unreliable in dealing with the economy. It's not indicative of a change in fortunes or in popularity.
Puzzledandpissedoff · 09/05/2021 10:55

Why are unions so strange in the UK? In much of Europe, they work with employers to ensure a reliable hard working workforce while representing their members' rights and using collective bargaining to improve conditions in many sectors

I wonder if it has anything to do with the British obsession with class? ... rarer now, but still a useful thing to hang hard left policies on
For some, there's traction to be found in the old thing about "the b**tards grinding us down" and it still plays well in some sectors

I would actually prefer it if local politics didn't come with a rosette. In my experience national politics often don't have a bearing on who is good on local issues and I really dislike voting for someone I like knowing that it will be seen as an endorsement of their wider political party who I sometimes do not like

Also agree with this, and there's an argument to be made for having only independent reps on local councils. It won't happen though, because it would suit neither the party machines nor the tribalism of so many who look no further than what "colour" the candidate is

LemonTT · 09/05/2021 10:56

Labour isn’t going to get into power on the back of mayoral wins. Btw some of those mayoral candidates have a solid new Labour section in their CV.

Labour under Corbyn had too many policies. It was an electoral joke. It’s doesn’t broaden appeal, it shows incoherence. Worst of all it demonstrated that activists are driving campaigns not strategists.

Take education, at the last election the narrative from Labour was on university education and adult education. Good policies for a footnote and when in government. For an election you need to be talking about children’s education. Labour don’t need to work hard to get adult students on board. They have this vote. They don’t have the vote of parents living in towns.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 11:28

For an election you need to be talking about children’s education. Labour don’t need to work hard to get adult students on board. They have this vote. They don’t have the vote of parents living in towns.

This is a good point, and one on which the Tories record is not terribly good. The only ideas they have is more Academies - but most people aren't to bothered about the Governance, they want to see classrooms which aren't overcrowded with good teachers in the class.

Onetoomuch · 09/05/2021 12:16

@CirclesWithinCircles labour are unreliable at dealing with the economy oft repeated but not quite true, the jury's out on that

Blossomtoes · 09/05/2021 12:32

Something very interesting has happened where I live. It’s the second safest Tory seat in the country but the Tories have this week lost control of the county council and we now have a Labour mayor who won on second choice votes! It’s a real wtf moment.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 12:47

Blossomtoes - where is that?

Blossomtoes · 09/05/2021 12:48

Cambridgeshire. It’s extraordinary.

Liliolla · 09/05/2021 13:02

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Peregrina · 09/05/2021 13:08

Oxford City Council has stayed solidly Labour and remains a completely Tory free zone.

It can't just be put down to the student vote either - the wealthy parts of the City didn't return the Tories either. Most of the Tory candidates had poor showings.

Blossomtoes · 09/05/2021 13:15

@Peregrina

Oxford City Council has stayed solidly Labour and remains a completely Tory free zone.

It can't just be put down to the student vote either - the wealthy parts of the City didn't return the Tories either. Most of the Tory candidates had poor showings.

Cambridge City Council is the same. It’s the academic population and large new tech industry there I suspect.
Onetoomuch · 09/05/2021 13:27

So educated affluent highly skilled young people of any class are voting for the labour party. In other countries that would be seen as a good thing but in the UK it's elitist Confused

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 13:33

Oxford City is by no means as affluent as would be expected. There are some very deep pockets of deprivation, sitting cheek by jowl with extremely wealthy areas. So far the new breed of Johnson Tories don't seem to have offered the poor wards anything.

woodhill · 09/05/2021 13:38

@caringcarer

Labour tried to stuff the EU down our throats and now they are paying for it. All the Brexit lies we were told. That Britain would be chaos with lorries queing for 30 miles to get in. House prices would nose dive and inflation would rocket. None of it turned out to be true and people no longer trust Labour judgement. Add that to the wokery of Westminster and it is not appealing. Brecit was a good thing for UK and it would help Labour if Starlmer held his hands up and said OK I got it wrong. People could relate to that, but he won't. He also went on record as saying he would be responsible for Hartlepool result, then sacked Raynor, so pushed blame on to her.
Shame Tony Blair even started the free movement in the first place
Peregrina · 09/05/2021 13:42

Strangely enough Maggie Thatcher was the one who originally supported the Single Market.

BronwenFrideswide · 09/05/2021 13:43

@Blossomtoes

Something very interesting has happened where I live. It’s the second safest Tory seat in the country but the Tories have this week lost control of the county council and we now have a Labour mayor who won on second choice votes! It’s a real wtf moment.
Yet out of the 7 MPs Cambridgeshire send to the HoC only one is Labour and covers Cambridge City.
Blossomtoes · 09/05/2021 13:52

@Onetoomuch

So educated affluent highly skilled young people of any class are voting for the labour party. In other countries that would be seen as a good thing but in the UK it's elitist Confused
Not at all. It’s a good thing. I was musing on why our two great university cities are Tory free zones is all. Particularly given their affluence with house prices the highest outside London.
Peregrina · 09/05/2021 14:13

As far as General Elections go Oxford City is split, but is represented at present by one LibDem and one Labour MP.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 14:19

I what to me is gratifying news the Tory leader of Oxfordshire County Council has gone and lost his seat.

SunflowersAndLavender · 09/05/2021 14:22

Not at all. It’s a good thing. I was musing on why our two great university cities are Tory free zones is all. Particularly given their affluence with house prices the highest outside London.

Most cities and towns with very large student populations and heavily academia based workforce are Tory free zones.

Andante57 · 09/05/2021 14:23

I what to me is gratifying news the Tory leader of Oxfordshire County Council has gone and lost his seat

Peregrina Also there have been Labour mayors elected and Laurence Fox lost his deposit so you can enjoy gloating about that.

Thelnebriati · 09/05/2021 14:24

woodhill
Shame Tony Blair even started the free movement in the first place

It was John Major that signed The Maastricht Treaty.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 14:29

I personally neither know nor care about Laurence Fox losing his deposit. I do care about who runs my County Council and getting rid of a Councillor who I felt was doing a poor job is for me a bonus.

Peregrina · 09/05/2021 14:31

It was John Major that signed The Maastricht Treaty.

And the Eurosceptics in his party wrecked his premiership, or helped to do so. For me, he will always gain some respect for being one of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement.

Clavinova · 09/05/2021 14:33

Blossomtoes

Part explanation for the results in Cambridgeshire here. Scroll down to South Cambridgeshire - Labour didn't field a candidate in six seats, so some sort of alliance/pact? e.g.

Bar Hill - LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON

Lynda Harford - Conservative - 1,345
Edna Murphy - Liberal Democrats - 1,500 ELECTED
Stan Rankin - Green - 494

Hardwick LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON

Michael Atkins - Liberal Democrats - 1,865 ELECTED
Lina Nieto - Conservative - 1,860
Colin Reynolds - Green - 590

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/elections-2021-cambridgeshire-county-council-results-9198242/