To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

[Rosehip10]

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

Re Emily oh!

So it was an innocent tweet simply admiring someone's flag display?
Was this taken out of context?

@musingloud. I meant in the south east.

[quote supermoonrising]@Letsgetreadytocrumble
I think that’s a fun media narrative, eagerly digested by a small demographic of rightwing snowflakes, but i don’t think it’s actually what Labour has been doing. However, I’ll buy into it for a second ...dissing people may be a rubbish way to win elections - but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a few million thick and bigoted Britons. There most certainly are. I’ve been abused by many of them over the years. But then there are thick racists in every country of course.[/quote]
This post sums it up.

@Onetoomuch

People saying "I am not a labour voter" why ? It suggests eternally fixed ideas so even if the government you voted for makes a complete hash of it, you'll carry on voting for them whatever. How will things ever change for the better ? How many have ever read a party manifesto ? People seem to vote tribally and don't give a single minutes consideration to the policies of other parties. It's so blinkered, hence areas in the south east have been tory since time immemorial. I doubt that blue wall will ever collapse although there are chinks appearing.

I said I’ve never voted Labour...not that i never would

I have voted tory occasionally, lib dem, and my last vote was green (general elections)

I read all the manifestos

But mainly i say that because at some point on a thread when i say that the current government is shite I’ll get some dozy muppet telling me I’m a Corbyn lover

Its almost as if there aren’t any other parties to vote for

Is your assumption honestly that everyone who says they haven’t voted for a party before knows nothing about politics and does no research?

Wales wisely swerved the trans debate by not engaging . Statue demolition condemned, I guess they govern with a light hand. As for taking the knee I cannot see Drakeford doing that in a month of Sundays. This may be the secret of their success. We do not do trendy here.

How do the Scots view it all I wonder.

Labour will not win whilst they remain a second class Tory party.

Corbyn came in and got the largest swing since WW2 - most people i know voted for the first time in years - and he got more people who voted for him in Hartlepool than the Tory did yesterday.

I truly believe that at the last general election the public truly believed that if Labour got in the whole Brexit negotiations would start again and they voted Tory just to get it done. So many people who would have traditionally voted Labour but were unsure about Corbyn voted Tory for Brexit and Brexit only.

The labour party were twats and got rid of Corbyn so all the voters he attracted simply walked away from the party again.

It simply does not matter if we get a labour government or not, whilst they are the party they are now they are not worth having anyway.

We need a new left wing party that has not betrayed the people they should stand for - then the 1/3 to half of all voters who feel so completely disenfranchised they do not even bother to vote will be able to partake in democracy again.

I don't know that by election turn outs are an indication. I looked up the last two I could remember. In Copeland the Tories won on a 51.3% turn out. In Stoke, Labour retained the seat on a 38.2% turn out.

So Hartlepool is probably fairly average. What you can see is a UKIP vote collapse with the Reform Party, its successor getting a miserable 300 odd votes after picking up more than 10,000 last time.

It suggests eternally fixed ideas so even if the government you voted for makes a complete hash of it, you'll carry on voting for them whatever

Onetoomuch would you level the same criticism at posters who say ‘hell would freeze over before I voted Tory’ or words to that effect?

Yup but tbh not many if them around

upamountain - then what do you think of this article in the Guardian

particularly the last few sentences
Johnson is a tougher opponent [than Trump], governing as a social democrat in a blue rosette, willing to tax and spend big – “a Brexity Hezza,” he called himself – and not in denial about Covid. But if Starmer were to adopt Bidenomics on jobs, “the Tories would never be able to go there,” says Cruddas: ultimately their Thatcherite creed would hold them back. Labour would have that fertile ground all to itself.

It's a pity that their comments section is closed because I would largely agree with this. Johnson may have some Social Democratic tendencies, although I doubt it, but his party most certainly do not. Those of that tendency got chased out of the party. I think Friedland is right in his analysis, and once Covid is over, it will be back to austerity. The Tories might be able to bribe Hartlepool with money, but how long will it be before the southern Tories start to complain?

Another point was that the Presidential election is primarily a two horse race, whereas the leftish vote is split in this country.

As for a Emily Thornberry , bad comments yes, but I can think of worse that Boris Johnson has said and written about a lot of people too. Why is that ok ?

It isn't okay, but this particular thread is about Labour's problems. Start one about Boris and I'll say similar about him (and have)

This is one of the benefits for those of us who have no political affiliation and simply vote for whoever appears least awful at the time - there's no need to engage in tribalism or whataboutery and we can take a harder look at the broader picture

Doesn't mean we'll necessarily get it right of course, but it helps in sorting the crap candidates from the even more crap ones

Until we get rid of first past the post and replace it with something more democratic, we are likely to have decades of Tory rule - unless other parties come together.

Anyone who thinks this is a good thing needs to look at the bigger picture - responsible government requires opposition and at least the possibility of defeat on some votes, otherwise we may as well have a dictatorship.

@Peregrina there've been some pretty good articles in the Guardian about the labour vote collapse and the btl comments have been interesting too

Until we get rid of first past the post and replace it with something more democratic, we are likely to have decades of Tory rule - unless other parties come together

Andy Burnham's in favour of PR ...

Funnily enough I voted for my LD councillor who's been pretty active the last few years. He keeps us up to date with ongoing issues and tells us what he is doing to improve things in our area. We now have speed reduction measures on our road which is a well known short cut. We have a monthly newsletter from him which I think shows a lot of commitment. Maybe if labour mps were equally as visible, telling constituents what they had achieved, asking them how things could be improved, they would feel listened to and valued.

@jasjas1973

I am not a Labour voter, never want to see them in power

But we DO need a credible opposition. Giving the tories free reign to do whatever they like because they have so much support is terrifying. I haven't been a big supporter of the emergency laws and the removal of civil liberties during this crisis. Labour have not even questioned this. Just made clear that under them it would have been far worse

I feel worried that these election results will give the tories the idea that the public love having their freedom constrained by a big powerful government and we'll get a lot more of it

Don't really understand what your trying to say.... under our system, there is no such thing as a strong opposition, govt has a majority and can do what it likes, only the HoL can hold them too account and temporarily block law.
If they have a very small majority, then as we saw in 2017 onward, we have indecisive law making.

You also have no idea what Labour would have done on freedoms, its hard to believe they could possibly have done worse!
We've had 3 horrendous lockdowns and borrowing is in the trillions

Yet still you vote for them?

So long as they keep getting into power, they will take that as "Do as thy will shall be the whole of the law"

I didn't vote for them. I'm lucky to have an amazing independent Councillor and didn't have to.

The whole point of my post is that the opposition must hold the government to account and protect our freedoms, which as far as I can see only the Lib Dems have done. Okay, the government could still pass tyrannical laws because they have an overall majority, but only if the entire tory party voted for said tyrannical measures which they would never do.

The emergency laws were voted through by Labour without any scrutiny or even debate from the leadership team about the nature of those laws. Only members of the Tory Part and Lib Dems said 'hang on a minute, these laws are outrageous and disproportionate to the problem'. Labour complained that they weren't done sooner, and demanded more money for Local Authorities (not people and businesses).

Any small business owner, especially in hospitality, will hold more venom for Labour even though the Tories implemented the damaging rules, because Labour SHOULD have spent more time scrutinising and challenging what was going on and far less time on their knees worshipping an American career criminal.

When you live in a small town, village, you do get to know what your councillors are doing, you know their names, their families. This effort is rewarded with a vote. How do you achieve this in cities which are more anonymous?

Andy Burnham's in favour of PR ...

As is Nigel Farage.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32601281

Interesting article here about PR and how it would have impacted the 2015 election. UKIP would have had more MPs than the SNP, Lib dems or the greens.

Maybe one day the nice Labour party will follow the nasty Tory party and give a lady a chance.

I'm sure they will, if the lady packs a penis.

Bros before hoes, innit.

Tony Blair was toying with PR until he got a massive mandate.

Absolutely no fucking principles.

I'm sure they will, if the lady packs a penis

There are rumours eddie izzard is going to be parachuted into a safe Labour constituency, having already failed to be elected for the NEC twice.

Andy Burnham could do better than Kier, I reckon.

But as Andy Burnham himself says, he's tried for the Leadership and failed to be elected. He's probably better off where he is for now.

It’s not his programme. It’s the NHS. Test and trace as his and it is, has been and always will be utterly shit. In wales that’s also done by the NHS more cheaply and much more effectively.

If the vaccine roll out we’re going wrong they would be blaming the government.

I can't stand Andy Burnham. And he won't solve the "wokeness" problem.