To ask if you think most people will be ok job wise

[LemonSherbetFancies]

After coronavirus and that redundancies have been over predicted for the future?

[AlexaRain]

[quote GintyMcGinty]**@LemonSherbetFancies Well, maybe some travel will be restricted but other than that, I can see us all going back to 2019 life

Stating it doesn't make it so.

So many people have shared their stories of how they sectors they work in continue to be devastated. Please tell us how business that are not allowed to re-open will go back to 2019 or those who are only allowed 20% of their customers on site will go back to 2019?[/quote]
The Guardian today running a report from various public health experts and epidemiologists - predicting a huge surge in infections across Asia, Africa and South America.

Australia and NZ closed until the world is vaccinated - 2023.

Holidays in Spain and weekend breaks to Paris may be back on the cards (with controls like testing in place - so not back to 2019). But travel outside of Europe and North America doesn't look like it's going to back in place for a couple of years.

Travel isn't just about holidays. Think about how many Brits have family in Australia / NZ / India.

[GingerAndTheBiscuits]

@Dugee both really. Though there’s not a huge amount of services left to cut so it will have to come through legislative reform stripping back what local authorities and other public sector bodies are required to deliver. Scrapping targets on waiting times, tightening up eligibility criteria, increased charges where charging is allowed etc. Lots of support for children isn’t means-tested in the way it is for adults - I don’t know whether that’s the kind of thing they may look to address for example. I don’t really see any other way to pay for it all and the govt don’t seem inclined to raise taxes. And the Tories aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

[AlexaRain]

[quote GingerAndTheBiscuits]@Dugee both really. Though there’s not a huge amount of services left to cut so it will have to come through legislative reform stripping back what local authorities and other public sector bodies are required to deliver. Scrapping targets on waiting times, tightening up eligibility criteria, increased charges where charging is allowed etc. Lots of support for children isn’t means-tested in the way it is for adults - I don’t know whether that’s the kind of thing they may look to address for example. I don’t really see any other way to pay for it all and the govt don’t seem inclined to raise taxes. And the Tories aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.[/quote]
It's interested what you say about support for children. Do you mean things like free prescriptions for all kids? So we may go down the route of means testing the parent?

I wondered if they might look at tightening up eligibility for benefits - only give those benefits to British parents / children. My friend is an EU citizen living here and claiming a small amount of child related, in work benefits and she has mentioned this. I guess it would make perfect sense in some quarters.

[GingerAndTheBiscuits]

It's interested what you say about support for children. Do you mean things like free prescriptions for all kids? So we may go down the route of means testing the parent?

I was thinking specifically about home adaptations for disabled children, for example, or direct payments. Just to stress that’s not based on any kind of “insider knowledge” on my part, just me thinking about where the govt may look to bring in charges. Free school meals for infants, reducing pupil premium, dental care... who knows?! As in 2010 I don’t think anything will be off the table.

[AlexaRain]

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

It's interested what you say about support for children. Do you mean things like free prescriptions for all kids? So we may go down the route of means testing the parent?

I was thinking specifically about home adaptations for disabled children, for example, or direct payments. Just to stress that’s not based on any kind of “insider knowledge” on my part, just me thinking about where the govt may look to bring in charges. Free school meals for infants, reducing pupil premium, dental care... who knows?! As in 2010 I don’t think anything will be off the table.

I don't have any insider information either, I just find it interesting to hear other people's thoughts on what may happen next. So thank you .

[Dugee]

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

I moved from private to public. I thought I'd be safer in the public sector but who knows. Other than WW2 then I don't think we've ever been in as much debt and it has to be paid off somehow.

[lightand]

Interesting thread.

Those who say there have been job losses in IT, can you say a bit more about that please?

[Newnamefor2021]

I think it will potentially be worse with companies like British Gas going through with fire and rehire. Why would any company pay out redundancy if they cab get rid of them for free?

I think we will see more companies now use fire and rehire to take away decent terms and conditions.

I think don't the reason will be covid but it will excused as covid related reasons when in reality like British Gas it was just greed!

[Blakes77]

I think that the divide between "proffessional" home owning, wfh classes and the bad contract, zero hours, renting working class has widened massively in the last year.
The government ensured property prices would not only not go down, but rise, which has made rent go up. People in secure jobs, in secure housing have saved £££ and the other half of the population is redundant or hanging by a thread.
So, some people I know have save lots of money, upgraded their houses and been able to move to lovely vilages as they are now wfh most of the time, while others I know are desperately trying to get delivery driver jobs on zero hours, as they have no work in their restaurant/theatre or shop.
So, basically, we have emerged a less even and equal society than we have been in decades, and many jobs will be lost, but not the ones the people in charge really care about.

[GingerAndTheBiscuits]

@Dugee I’ve always felt more secure in the public sector though since 2010 it’s obviously not been the job security it was (I was only saved from redundancy then by virtue of being pregnant and being redeployed). The organisation I work for now lost 40% of its staff as a result of austerity but has slowly increased its FTE since then. Lots are closing in on retirement age so the hope for the younger staff amongst us is that if redundancies do come, they will cash out and leave less compulsory redundancies to follow. Our biggest expense after staffing is office costs so can see lots of rationalising of office space happening too.

@lightand DH used to work for an IT security firm who have laid off lots of staff while the owner gave themselves a 11% pay rise.

[lightand]

@Newnamefor2021

I think it will potentially be worse with companies like British Gas going through with fire and rehire. Why would any company pay out redundancy if they cab get rid of them for free?

I think we will see more companies now use fire and rehire to take away decent terms and conditions.

I think don't the reason will be covid but it will excused as covid related reasons when in reality like British Gas it was just greed!

I was always surprised that more firms didnt do this.
[Awful thing to do to people].

Local Councils have been doing it for years. At least the one I know about has.

[AlexaRain]

@Newnamefor2021

I think it will potentially be worse with companies like British Gas going through with fire and rehire. Why would any company pay out redundancy if they cab get rid of them for free?

I think we will see more companies now use fire and rehire to take away decent terms and conditions.

I think don't the reason will be covid but it will excused as covid related reasons when in reality like British Gas it was just greed!

I've read about this but not looked into it. On what grounds do they do the firing?

[poppycat10]

Fire and rehire is a pretty high risk strategy. You can't unilaterally change someone's terms of employment, so either you give them a sweetener to agree to it, or you have to pay redundancy if they don't (assuming two years' service). Anything else is unfair dismissal.

[AlexaRain]

@poppycat10

Fire and rehire is a pretty high risk strategy. You can't unilaterally change someone's terms of employment, so either you give them a sweetener to agree to it, or you have to pay redundancy if they don't (assuming two years' service). Anything else is unfair dismissal.

That's what I was thinking. How have BG managed it?

[lightand]

Worked perfectly well in County Council, who have been doing it several times.
Voluntary redundancies were what they were after, and got.
Less paid staff, roles redefined and changed.
Some people who wanted to stay, would find parts of their existing job gone sometimes in 3 different directions.

[lightand]

If you google County Council fire and rehire, all sorts comes up.

[Dugee]

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

We have worked from home for the past year and proven we can do it. I think there will be a reduction in office space too.

[AlexaRain]

www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-9538279/ALEX-BRUMMER-Boom-way-bust.html

Ok, it's the mail but it repeats what others have said below.

[lightand]

I was ready to put the same link on a preppers thread I am on.
Things could get bumpy.

[Dugee]

It says similar to the FT article I mentioned.

[Hairbrush123]

I honestly don’t know. The aviation sector may never recover as it heavily relies on business travel & economists predict that up to 50% of business travel will be lost however that could be recouped with leisure travel.

Physical shops are a big one. I used to love going into my local shopping centre and shopping but I still haven’t been except to get a refund on something. I have zero plans to go back into the shopping centre except to maybe visit Wilko.
I used to enjoy going into John Lewis to buy whatever I could but their online service is so good - I rather go online now. I popped in yesterday [into John Lewis] and it was very busy but was it because of the poor weather and not much else we can do? Also with the success of WFH for many businesses - that will have a knock on effect for many businesses in city centres.

Public transport especially railway operators heavily rely on commuters. Network Rail predicts worse case scenario - that there will be 40% fewer passengers travelling on their network. Best guess scernario would be 10% fewer.

I would love to see things go back to a 2019 normal but we’ve adapted and it seems to have work for many businesses and people so I can’t see us reverting many trends. It’s going to be a bloodshed of jobs gone unfortunately.

[LadyPoison]

No - I think we are in for an era of severe unemployment.

Many jobs are gone for good and a lot of retraining will be needed.

Many people will have to consider taking jobs that they wouldn't have considered before - there are lots of jobs available that most British won't take. Our local carwash for example has lost the young Eastern European men who used to staff it and I don't see a queue of locals waiting to take their place although local youth umemployment is quite high

[bumblingbovine49]

Of course things will go back to normal fairly quickly after the pandemic ends ( I don't mean after Covid is eliminated just when it is mostly controlled in the world ) History teaches us that the world recovers from most disasters. However ' normal' in this country included a massive ( much bigger than on many other European countries) divide between the haves and have not . The pandemic has just made the differences between those who have and have not wider and deeper.

Normal will be the same again unless we change that but this.country is conservative through and through and I think will vote in the Tories again who have broken this country in the last 10-15 years .

On the other hand I did see a thread yesterday where the majority of people wanted severe restrictions or even banning of owning second homes. I can't think of a less Tory like policy so maybe there is some hope for change in the future.

[Anonmousse]

I still commute to work and have on and off throughout the last year. Trains are slightly busier than before xmas but nowhere near levels they were in 2019.At the moment as s passenger it's quite nice to travel in a very quiet train which is only 20% capacity, if that....but I'm sure this is temporary. They will either cut services, or push prices up (likely both) as it cant be profitable to run near empty trains on a regular basis.

[usedtobealawyer]

I think we will enter a boom period.