To ask if you think most people will be ok job wise

[LemonSherbetFancies]

After coronavirus and that redundancies have been over predicted for the future?

[Babyroobs]

@Upamountain43

My organisation - a charity - made a third of their staff redundant as a direct result of the drop in income due to Covid.

Over half of us have got other jobs already so I guess most of us are ok but its seems a harsh statement to the ones who aren't.

We are funded by a charity too and funding is up for renewal soon. We are all concerned about losing our jobs due to funding not being renewed. the charity that funds us has lost millions in fundraising revenue.

[wheresmymojo]

@LemonSherbetFancies

Yes, I am starting to believe everything will return to normal very soon. The high street and restaurants are booming right now and the UK hospitality will o extremely well this summer.

Are they?

I went to our nearest City on the first Saturday after things reopened and it looked busy at first glance but there was actually hardly anyone in the shops.

And the restaurant we went to for lunch, sitting outside (where they had just 8 tables available) said takings were down 35% compared to the previous week when it was takeaway only.

[Boood]

What can people whose jobs are safe do?

Well how about, for a start, don’t shut down any discussion of alternatives to lockdown by implying that anyone who wants to question the policy is a lunatic conspiracy theorist?

How about recognising that keeping the hospitality industry in a position where they can only trade at 12% of normal levels for “just a few more weeks” will be the difference between survival and failure for some?

How about acknowledging that demanding ever more draconian ways of preventing people from leaving the country is devastating a massive industry?

Lockdown is a choice. A political decision. It is not inevitable and it is not something forced upon us by “the virus”. So if you want to help the millions whose lives and livelihoods have been devastated by this choice, stop vilifying anyone who challenges that choice. Start demanding more from the government than knee-jerk reactions. Stop excusing their dishonesty and incompetence because “nobody else would have done any better.”

[wheresmymojo]

Plus the change in the way people live their lives is here to stay.

A significant amount of people won't be going back to work in offices full time. I work in financial services across a number of different companies and they all say the same thing - we won't be going back to 5 days a week in the office.

Many of these companies spent £££ on their IT infrastructure to have so many people working from home that only makes financial sense if they now save £££ in office space.

Most in the financial services sector (which employs millions) will go back to the office 2-3 days per week max.

The impact of this is massive - usually shifts of this size in the way we behave happen over tens of years. To happen in one year will be like a financial earthquake.

Think of everything that relies on the income of these people commuting and being in the workplace.

• Petrol stations, demand for oil
• Trains, tubes, taxis
• Coffee shops, metro style supermarkets, food outlets
• Suppliers of food to these places
• Receptionists, security guards, office facilities staff, cleaners
• Commercial office property owners (these can often be pension funds!)
• Shops around offices that depend on people popping in during lunch hours or after work for it to be viable to stay open in the week
• City centre gyms reliant on the before/after work and lunchtime gym goers
• City and town centre pubs who's main week day custom is work lunches and after work drinks

If you continue it becomes much more wide reaching than it appears at first sight...

For example - insurers are likely to make redundancies in the areas that deal with motor insurance because less commuting = less car accidents = less claims = less staff needed.

And this is just the one trend (not working full time in offices anymore).

It doesn't take into account other big trends at the same time e.g. massive acceleration of online shopping (which was coming anyway but hugely accelerated).

[Carpedimum]

Aviation has been very negatively affected with many job losses and probably more to come when the furlough scheme ends. It will continue to have any hope of expansion/refurbishment plans hit by increasing environmental constraints and lack of income from non-existent passengers.

[TheVelvetiser]

@Boood Exactly this, well said.

My business collapsed in the first lockdown. A 'friend' told me to get myself off fruit picking and that if the loss of my business saved even one 90 year old then I should feel privileged to make that sacrifice. She, by her own admission, loved lockdown and the freedom to work in her beautiful garden. Now her 'safe' job as a university lecturer is at risk and she's clamouring for restrictions to end. My sympathy for her is in short supply.

[Caplin]

I think the number of people out of work will be high, but it will disproportionately hit young people who have little experience. Overall I think furlough has been great as people still have an income, employers have felt they just about cling on and reopen and there will be people able to spend at the end of it. But the cost will hit us via taxes. Still, I would rather have higher taxes than higher unemployment, as long as those taxes don't hit the poor hardest.

The concern is young people, that next generation of worker who will struggle to get on the ladder because those jobs will have been given to people who are about to be made redundant and have more experience. Employers need to know there is funding to train young people and encourage new talent.

[Boood]

[quote TheVelvetiser]@Boood Exactly this, well said.

My business collapsed in the first lockdown. A 'friend' told me to get myself off fruit picking and that if the loss of my business saved even one 90 year old then I should feel privileged to make that sacrifice. She, by her own admission, loved lockdown and the freedom to work in her beautiful garden. Now her 'safe' job as a university lecturer is at risk and she's clamouring for restrictions to end. My sympathy for her is in short supply.[/quote]
@TheVelvetiser, what an absolutely horrible thing for someone to say to you. I’m really sorry you lost your business.

I’m afraid in general I’ve noticed this attitude far more in public sector workers. I think in the private sector people are far more aware of how interconnected everything is, and that your industry suffering today will affect theirs tomorrow.

[Quaversplease]

@Caplin Disproportionately affecting young people depends on the sector. The airline I work for has just made 500 pilots redundant. Senior captains and second officers. Average age of 36. The chances of even a small % of them getting a similar job are very small.

[GintyMcGinty]

@LemonSherbetFancies Well, maybe some travel will be restricted but other than that, I can see us all going back to 2019 life

Stating it doesn't make it so.

So many people have shared their stories of how they sectors they work in continue to be devastated. Please tell us how business that are not allowed to re-open will go back to 2019 or those who are only allowed 20% of their customers on site will go back to 2019?

[GintyMcGinty]

The image attached is a list of museums, sport centres, libraries and community facilities that are going to remain closed in Glasgow.

That's just one city in the UK. This will be happening all over the country.

They've simply run out of money and can't reopen in a cost effective way. Jobs gone.

Still think it's going to be like 2019 cone June?

[TheOneWithTheBigNose]

Just found out today our nearby spa has closed permanently. Just one business, but it’s happening all over.

[AppleDolphin]

I sadly think we have so much worse to come. Our country is trillions in debt. How are we going to pay that back?

Less money to local government which will mean many local public sector redundancies. For example bin collections will reduce and classroom sizes will be larger. Which have a knock on effect for childminders, dog walkers, hairdressers, cafes etc.

We will be in a false bubble for a year or so then it will all come crashing down. It will be a Depression that has not been seen in our lifetime. No sector will be safe.

But I hope against hope I'm wrong.

[beginningoftheend]

@GintyMcGinty

The image attached is a list of museums, sport centres, libraries and community facilities that are going to remain closed in Glasgow.

That's just one city in the UK. This will be happening all over the country.

They've simply run out of money and can't reopen in a cost effective way. Jobs gone.

Still think it's going to be like 2019 cone June?

That's a stark list so many community centres

[MiaMarshmallows]

There's no doubting that things are going to make a much quicker recovery than first reported.
The mirror today reported that there will be a huge economic boom. I am feeling very optimistic for the future.

[AlexaRain]

@MiaMarshmallows

There's no doubting that things are going to make a much quicker recovery than first reported.
The mirror today reported that there will be a huge economic boom. I am feeling very optimistic for the future.

Is the mirror known for high quality economic analysis?

[AlexaRain]

@AppleDolphin

I sadly think we have so much worse to come. Our country is trillions in debt. How are we going to pay that back?

Less money to local government which will mean many local public sector redundancies. For example bin collections will reduce and classroom sizes will be larger. Which have a knock on effect for childminders, dog walkers, hairdressers, cafes etc.

We will be in a false bubble for a year or so then it will all come crashing down. It will be a Depression that has not been seen in our lifetime. No sector will be safe.

But I hope against hope I'm wrong.

Agree with this. Pent up demand until Christmas then a recession.

[XingMing]

Another vote thinking that the UK economy will go gangbusters this year. We all want to go on holiday and are planning to do so in the uk. I have already got a weekend booked in Devon, plus a rollover from last year and a week away in Scotland. Looking forward to a change of scenery frankly.

[XingMing]

DS is in his first year at university, but has almost three years cheffing experience in a five star hotel. At the moment, right now, he could earn mega-money. There is a massive demand for chefs, but they need to understand how the food they serve should taste.

[MiaMarshmallows]

Well it was from a finance advisor or someone high up in Barclays so not just the mirrors view that things are going very well and that the economy will bounce back much faster than anyone realise. Unemployment figures are falling too as companies start to rehire.

[Dugee]

Interesting. There was an article in the FT (I can't link to it, as it's behind a paywall) that agreed that there is a lot of unspent money in bank accounts and there will be a big surge in spending once we are allowed out again. It cautioned that there are those that have done well out of this (working from home and saving money) and those that haven't (those who have lost their jobs / will lose their jobs when furlough ends). It went on to say that the country is in a lot of debt and it will need to be paid back. In short it predicted a party for 6 months or so and then a recession.

[TheOneWithTheBigNose]

@MiaMarshmallows

Well it was from a finance advisor or someone high up in Barclays so not just the mirrors view that things are going very well and that the economy will bounce back much faster than anyone realise. Unemployment figures are falling too as companies start to rehire.

I am high up in Barclays . There is no real consensus view. Some think there will be a strong bounce back, others are less optimistic.

[Dugee]

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

I also saw an article which said that debt repayments and savings rates are the highest they've been for years. Not good for banks though, I guess, as they don't make any money out of us when we're not in debt.

[GingerAndTheBiscuits]

I work in the public sector and expect at some point (maybe 18 months from now) we’ll experience cuts that make 2010’s austerity look like a drop in the ocean.

[Dugee]

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

I work in the public sector and expect at some point (maybe 18 months from now) we’ll experience cuts that make 2010’s austerity look like a drop in the ocean.

Cuts to services or jobs or both?