To ask if you think most people will be ok job wise

[LemonSherbetFancies]

After coronavirus and that redundancies have been over predicted for the future?

So all restrictions will not be eased in May then?

They will ease but they won't be gone.

Some sectors will feel more normal than others.

But few will be entirely normal.

Truth is, we don’t know yet OP. This is what it says on gov.uk.

Step 4, no earlier than 21 June:

It is hoped all legal limits on social contact can be removed.
We hope to reopen nightclubs, and lift restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3.
This will also guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.

Note the deliberately vague language. ‘It is hoped’ and ‘guide decisions’.

And that’s June, not May. They’ve never said all restrictions will be lifted by May.

It's going to be loads of fun in a nightclub, dancing 2m away from your mates.

@ponderinginpoughkeepsie

I really want to know the answer to this, I don't think some parts of aviation and the travel industry will ever recover!

Total agree, my husband is in aviation, fortunately military. But so many if his friends that had swapped to civil are really struggling

I think hospitality feels busy because you have to book in advance, could get turned away, etc. But in reality, they will be dealing with less customers than they could.

My local pub can have ten groups sitting outside, they could have that again inside, and probably double capacity if social distancing was not in place (especially if you count people drinking at the bar). There's no way they need the same number of staff right now that they normally would.

Because we are a tourist area, this is the start of their "season" so it's likely they won't take their usual seasonal staff on, but those staff will have a shorter period of seasonal work than they normally would- which means less money in the local economy, etc etc.

There are also some industries, like travel outside the UK, events etc, which have been decimated in the last year, and I don't think it will be as simple as them reopening on day one, and getting back to normal for staff.

Obviously it won't be most people- if most people were redundant, we'd be fucked. But job insecurity can be bad for everyone, and it may have delayed knock on impacts on other industries.

Boris has said that he doesn't think there will need to be any diversion from the plan so I genuinely do think everything will return to 2019 way of life in June. No reason to think otherwise. The whole picture in the UK is looking very good right now.

What people with secure jobs and decent incomes can do to support the jobless/ working poor:

Don't indulge in benefits bashing or its offshoots like ableism and ageism. Call it out when you see or hear it from others.

Vote for parties who have a strong set of social welfare policies, rather than for the ones who will benefit you more directly by cutting taxes (this isn't an unrealistically selfless act on your part as education and healthcare being under-funded has an impact on everyone eventually).

Join in however you can with protests about benefit cuts, employment rights erosion, the need for foodbanks etc. Even signing a petition is better than ignoring things.

@LemonSherbetFancies

Boris has said that he doesn't think there will need to be any diversion from the plan so I genuinely do think everything will return to 2019 way of life in June. No reason to think otherwise. The whole picture in the UK is looking very good right now.

Do you think we will be able to go to India and Brazil on holiday and then walk back into the U.K.?

Depends what you mean by “most people”. If you mean the total workforce then yes, I think most people will be fine.

I think it’s going to be very sector specific. My employer asked us to take a 20% pay cut for 6 months of last year. Despite their concerns, we were inundated with work and they’ve just had their best year ever. It’s been that good they’ve decided to pay everyone the back-pay as a lump sum.

Well, maybe some travel will be restricted but other than that, I can see us all going back to 2019 life.

I'd like to believe that but in reality a lot of sectors cant just open the doors and pretend the last 15 months havent happened.
A lot of people I think might still be cautious about being in crowded places. And reality is a lot of places which theoretically could open will have closed down or struggle to survive.
My sector (non essential manufacturing) was allowed to be open in the first lockdown...but we had no orders for about 4 months. There was no point having everyone at work if we had no work to do ...but not all grants were available because the government hadnt forced us to close...

@LemonSherbetFancies

Well, maybe some travel will be restricted but other than that, I can see us all going back to 2019 life.

So you keep saying, totally ignoring people who say it won't.

I work for an airline. I haven't worked since Mar19. The company are expecting to make 30,000 people redundant globally. Most have already gone but in the UK furlough has saved us. Once furlough ends who knows what will happen. I do a very technical aviation job with qualifications not easily transferred to any other industry. I'm having sleepness nights. But as long as you can go to the pub, then everything is back to normal.

@LemonSherbetFancies

Boris has said that he doesn't think there will need to be any diversion from the plan so I genuinely do think everything will return to 2019 way of life in June. No reason to think otherwise. The whole picture in the UK is looking very good right now.

Let me tell you, everything will not return to as it was in 2019 by June. I work in the travel industry, along with several million other people in the UK. The way you casually sweep aside this entire industry in your comments is so glib and blinkered. You seem to be so desperate to be able to say things are fine that you are dismissing people's comments to the contrary. Please pop over to my office if you think everything is going to be fine in June......

I lost my job last year and I eventually found a job in a different area paying just over 40% less. In my area of expertise (HR) there was pretty much nothing to apply for. Lots of jobs are for 3 months (because the want someone to come in and make redundancies) on not great pay. I got a few interviews for jobs where I thought I gave good interview answers and had great rapport with the interviewer. However, they would always ask about homeschooling and then I would tell them that fortunately my children are too young for homeschooling. Then I would here nothing after the interview or have the office junior call me to provide free back with as very vague. I don’t ever mention I’ve got children during an interview. However, if someone asks how homeschooling is going you can’t just ignore them.

The one interview where I wasn’t asked about homeschooling was the job I got!

I do think the bottom may well fall out the economy when furlough ends and women will be badly affected as they will find it more difficult to get work because of the unconscious (or conscious) bias of employers as they will we wary about hiring women just in case bubbles burst/schools close again.

The estimates that a third of the workforce won't return to the office full time in itself spells disaster for so many industries. I used to work in a city centre coffee shop and all of our trade was office workers. In reality most of us don't live in walking distance to local amenities, and even if I did it I wouldn't spend my lunchbreak walking to the coffee shop daily when I have a kettle and pretty good coffee at home. The reason I do it at work is to escape from the office and usually to catch up with another colleague.
You only need to talk to someone who now WFH to hear them talk about how much money they save. Then you can think about where they would have usually spent that money previously, and how that business is doing.
In contrast to what other posters have written I do not see lots of jobs for hospitality at present. I live in a foodie town and I used to get 30+ jobs emailed to me per day, these days it's 2 or 3.
Good job I moved sectors to the NHS (mental health), business is booming here

Let me tell you, everything will not return to as it was in 2019 by June. I work in the travel industry, along with several million other people in the UK. The way you casually sweep aside this entire industry in your comments is so glib and blinkered. You seem to be so desperate to be able to say things are fine that you are dismissing people's comments to the contrary. Please pop over to my office if you think everything is going to be fine in June......

Exactly. We usually travel abroad twice a year. 2020's holidays were cancelled and we eventually got our money back. We are going self catering in the U.K. in 2021 (less risk of being cancelled) instead of going abroad twice. There are loads (possibly millions like us) because we don't want to risk the additional cost of hotel quarantine when we get back (if the country we travel to moves on to the red list while we are there).

Add in to that the performing arts and event industries (as we are avoiding booking tickets for these, like many others).

Plus the industries mentioned below that rely on commuter traffic.

Although I think the domestic travel industry will do very well this year.

@LemonSherbetFancies

Boris has said that he doesn't think there will need to be any diversion from the plan so I genuinely do think everything will return to 2019 way of life in June. No reason to think otherwise. The whole picture in the UK is looking very good right now.

Then how do you explain the work, projects and a conference I had in London in June, all cancelled already? That is not normal 2019 life.

the media have mislead a lot of people
Do you believe everything the media tells you? Are you not able to put it into context and realise it doesn’t sound feasible to go back to 2019 in less than two months?

Usually travel frequently
Took 7+ months to get money directly refunded from airlines. Some flights were cancelled by the airline less than 24 hours after booking & they still took the money !

Other travel companies have offered vouchers

Will be travelling in UK this year

Will watch covid, before deciding about travel abroad in the future

If the vaccine rollout succeeds in getting 95% of the adult population vaccinated by July and if there are no new variants which are able to overpower the vaccines then there is a good chance that normality will be mostly restored by the autumn.

I don't think things will be 100% normal until next summer though, many people will still be cautious in the short to medium term. Not least because it doesn't feel like a good time to be splashing money about, better to save it in case a new variant puts us back to the position we were in in March 2020.

With this in mind, unemployment will rise over the next 12 months as businesses fail and (presumably) furlough ends. Eventually new businesses will replace them though and unemployment will start to fall. I think it is reasonable to think we will be back to the 2019 position by 2023 at the latest.

Longer term, the biggest risk to employment is still automation. There will be very few jobs that cannot be done better by software and robotics - any kind of manufacturing or administrative worker will be replaced, eventually even highly skilled jobs like surgeons will be unnecessary. This process has been ongoing for decades of course (centuries some would say) but will accelerate rapidly by 2030 and continue to accelerate beyond that.

I was made redundant in January. 14 of us out of 50 employees were made redundant after being on furlough and then flexible furlough (working 1-2 days a week) for most of the pandemic. I managed to get a new job a couple of months later and I hate it. I loved my previous job and my new job I hate. Its boring, dull, the money is crap and we will have to take separate annual leave (last job was term time) as a family as no one to have our child during holidays and no holiday clubs where we live. Which means no family holiday at all for us for the foreseeable future.

The job market is only going to get worse I fear. And I think some people in "secure" jobs may get a shock. If you can work from home why pay London wages when you can get someone else to do it for a lot less who lives somewhere cheaper.

Whilst things look hopeful for improvement, and weve been given 21st June as a potential date for dropping restrictions, I think it's a bit naive to think we will suddenly all be back to pre pandemic lives in less than 2 months. Like flicking a switch.

OP did you stop watching any news after they gave the roadmap? Have you seen what's happening in India? Brazil? Or elsewhere in Europe? Even if we can meet friends and family relatively normally, I'm not confident that there will be the green light to travel and go wherever you want on holiday? Several festivals have already cancelled this year, because they cant afford the initial set up costs if it will be cancelled or restricted. I've heard the London Marathon (in October) may be run without spectators (I'm really not sure how they will police that!)
Even if we ditch masks in the summer, it's been mooted that they may be required in the winter months.
There are so many uncertainties, and while it's good to be hopeful, and so far the uk looks in a reasonable position, it's not a given that everything will be "as normal" from June. Look what happened between last August and January.....August was partially normal, cases were down, very few covid deaths per day, fast forward to January where nearly 2k a day were dying at the peak. I'm hopeful that with vaccines that it wont be that bad again, but I'm not under any illusion we'll be out of the woods completely by June

My organisation - a charity - made a third of their staff redundant as a direct result of the drop in income due to Covid.

Over half of us have got other jobs already so I guess most of us are ok but its seems a harsh statement to the ones who aren't.

Big realignment in the economy coming. My office is surrounded by ancillary businesses - sandwich shops, delis, “local” versions of the big supermarkets. I don’t really see how they can all now be sustained, which is a shame because it was a really buzzy area of town. On the bright side, the couple of times I’ve been into the office since the 12 April, it’s been much, much busier than before. However, not sure it’ll ever get back to the same volumes.

Things will be back to normal Autumn

I disagree

I cannot see how every country in the world will have everyone fully vaccinated

So the world will not be back to BAU for along time