To think Scottish Independence would be like a second Brexit?

[MinnieMous3]

Inspired by another thread, do you think Scottish Independence would be like a second Brexit?

As in, independence for independence’s sake rather than because it will actually benefit the country, leaving everyone in an expensive mess?

There seem to be so many parallels - a leader who is good at the battle cry but seems unable to produce a clear plan of what would happen afterwards, paranoia that the union in question is ‘out to get’ them in some way, and complete denial of the perks of being part of it.

I know this may get heated so please play nicely!

I haven't got the faintest clue how they feel about the Union as a whole, but those that are free to leave can do so, and those who are still serving the time they signed up for would presumably have to complete their term.

Free to leave, or stay in the British army (which by now no longer includes Scotland?)

I can’t imagine simply telling Scottish serving personnel that they no longer serve the British army, I think Scotland would have to start recruitment from scratch.

Scottish independence is driven by the opposite desire to brexit - to make Scotland a country that can welcome the rest of the world in

How would you do this if you were not part of the U.K. or the EU? I assume you mean immigration from the rest of the world?

@Whammyyammy

The military and other assets would have to be separated.

But the military has always been controlled from Westminster and not devolved? Can't see Westminster giving away multi million pounds assets as a leaving gift.

You don't think Scotland's taxes contribute to the defence spending?

Can't see Westminster giving away multi million pounds assets as a leaving gift.

I think that probably summarises the discontent and disaffection that many of us even in England feel about Westminster and the government there. The whole country’s assets do not belong to Westminster.

The EU has already expressed many welcoming messages to Scotland. I think they will view Scotland as a special case.

You don't think Scotland's taxes contribute to the defence spending?

Yes of course, contributed to a military force for the union. But if you choose to leave that union .....

It's not England's sole asset! It's the UKs and would have to be divided up if the Union itself divided.

Not sure why that's tricky. Do you also believe that the person to instigate a divorce should get fuck all of the marriage assets?

Another thing I don't understand, sorry not very politically minded. But people saying Scotland want independence to leave the United Kingdom, but hope to join the European Union, that doesn't sound 'independent' to me?

@UnderHisAye

It's not England's sole asset! It's the UKs and would have to be divided up if the Union itself divided.

Not sure why that's tricky. Do you also believe that the person to instigate a divorce should get fuck all of the marriage assets?

Agreed their not England's sole assets, their UK assets. As Wales, NI and England remain in the UK, I'm sure they woukd retain the assets.

@UnderHisAye

It's not England's sole asset! It's the UKs and would have to be divided up if the Union itself divided.

Not sure why that's tricky. Do you also believe that the person to instigate a divorce should get fuck all of the marriage assets?

Well Scotland are £1 billion in debt to the U.K. purse at the moment, so I can’t imagine Westminster would rush to give you anything. Just because we all contribute to the purse, doesn’t mean it’s a free for all and individual countries can take as much as they like.

Quite a bit of the SNP vote is based on anti-English, xenophobia and ignorance.

The UK has different societal ideals than many countries in the EU. Indeed many of the remaining member states have different societal ideals to other member states. It was often felt that the UK vote was routinely and systematically ignored - this is a feeling that applies at all levels, the Shetlands feel remote from Holyrood.

The currency was created for the Union not individual countries, you wouldn’t be able to keep the euro if you left the EU and this shouldn’t be any different.
In practice of course, a country can use whatever currency it chooses. Hence why plenty of minor countries use the US dollar. They have no control over monetary policy though.

The military and other assets would have to be separated.
Scotland's GDP represents less than 10% of the GDP in the UK. Presumably the forces would be split up in roughly the same proportion. Probably less of an issue with the army and RAF as most bases are in England anyway but the Royal Navy and its supply chain provide quite a lot of employment in Scotland.

Take Faslane for example. 8,200 people are employed at the base, worth £270m to the local economy. Obviously the Vanguard class submarines would move down to Falmouth and most (if not all) of the Astute class submarines would follow. Jobs in those numbers certainly wouldn't be supported by two frigates and a destroyer being based there.

Then look at shipbuilding. A substantial part of shipbuilding for the Royal Navy is in dockyards north of the border. The rUK government isn't going to continue ordering warships from dockyards on the Clyde and the Forth.

@MayYouLiveInInterestingTimes

Can't see Westminster giving away multi million pounds assets as a leaving gift.

I think that probably summarises the discontent and disaffection that many of us even in England feel about Westminster and the government there. The whole country’s assets do not belong to Westminster.

The EU has already expressed many welcoming messages to Scotland. I think they will view Scotland as a special case.

The EU has already expressed many welcoming messages to Scotland. I think they will view Scotland as a special case.

Well, there’s nothing exceptionalist about that is there you really think the EU will take a country which is financially insecure and has no defences etc if it’s own?! They’re not a benevolent organisation, they’re self interested (as they should be). The vaccine issue proves this.

@UnderHisAye

It's not England's sole asset! It's the UKs and would have to be divided up if the Union itself divided.

Not sure why that's tricky. Do you also believe that the person to instigate a divorce should get fuck all of the marriage assets?

How exactly do you divide up an aircraft carrier?

I think in some ways it would be. The UK government would make it very difficult for the Scottish government, it would dominate politics for a long period of time (even though there is a plan unlike with Brexit), and it would be even more divisive than the issue is now in Scotland.

I actually think the EU could possibly welcome Scotland, perhaps to make a point against the UK government, given the lies and half truths Mr Johnson spread about the EU when a journalist and in the referendum campaign.

A friend in Scotland voted against Independence for economic reasons. He said an independent Scotland would be like Greece without the sunshine.

However, he changed his mind after Brexit, and said that several people he knows would vote differently in a second independence referendum. I’m not surprised that seeing your country dragged out of the EU against its will would have that impact on many Scots remainers.

But Scotland’s economy is still heavily reliant on tourism. So, I think an independent Scotland would probably struggle, to be honest.

You can't just take a certain % of aircraft and expect to operate and fly them 🤣🤣 aircraft need so much specialist support in place and authority to actually fly them.

But if Scotland joined the EU, the border would be a NI job all over again. How would that be dealt with?

I do see the unfairness in dragging Scotland out of the EU, but I guess when you’re part of a Union it’s the majority vote that counts. I think the best option is to campaign for us the rejoin the EU, keep the Union together, and basically waiting for the Tory voter base to no longer be voting.

The EU has already expressed many welcoming messages to Scotland. I think they will view Scotland as a special case.
There are a number of conditions which any applicant state must fulfil before being permitted to join. These include a deficit to GDP of no more than 3% and a debt to GDP of no more than 60%. The UK's debt to GDP ratio exceeded 60% in 2009 and now sits at 85%. Scotland would start out with the same ratio - any refusal to take its share of the national debt on will make it impossible to borrow because investors would not trust such a government.

@DdraigGoch

The EU has already expressed many welcoming messages to Scotland. I think they will view Scotland as a special case. There are a number of conditions which any applicant state must fulfil before being permitted to join. These include a deficit to GDP of no more than 3% and a debt to GDP of no more than 60%. The UK's debt to GDP ratio exceeded 60% in 2009 and now sits at 85%. Scotland would start out with the same ratio - any refusal to take its share of the national debt on will make it impossible to borrow because investors would not trust such a government.

Scotland’s ratio is what bumps it up for the rest of the U.K. as their deficit is three times that of England and Wales.

You're sure are you @Whammyyammy ?

Based on... you thinking that should happen?

@MinnieMous3

But if Scotland joined the EU, the border would be a NI job all over again. How would that be dealt with?

I do see the unfairness in dragging Scotland out of the EU, but I guess when you’re part of a Union it’s the majority vote that counts. I think the best option is to campaign for us the rejoin the EU, keep the Union together, and basically waiting for the Tory voter base to no longer be voting.

Agreed, a united kingdom, united in rejoining the EU, that would suit me. Sadly I don't think our bumbling politicians would do it, the EU probably wouldn't want us, and if they did..... im sure there would be a price to pay.

@UnderHisAye

You're sure are you *@Whammyyammy* ?

Based on... you thinking that should happen?

I'm sure as I've worked in the aviation industry, both civil and military. Modern aircraft could not simply be handed to and operated by a country without the correct support and infrastructure in place.

Most UK aircraft are operated with permission from the country that build and sell them. The UK MOD would of satisfied these requirements.
And where would they trained personnel come from to fly and maintain them?

Scotland is different, because it was previously a member of the EU. I think Westminster is slowly going to have to adjust to the fact that the EU does not have to do what Westminster would like. Historically France and Scotland were often allied against England. For the record I don’t want our colleagues and fellow Brits to leave, but I didn’t want to leave the EU either.

Also the UK military is made up of approx 11% personnel from Scotland. I doubt all of those would be happy to just discharge themselves and join a newly formed Scottish equivalent.

But let's say they do all quit their jobs, that wouldn't be enough to operate modern platforms.

The UK could recruit that 11% back quite quickly, as it has recruit and further training facilities for all 3 branches of the armed forces.

There are certainly similarities to Brexit. Independence supporters aren't interested in trying to find out what the effects of independence would be. They don't actually care. It's all about emotion.
There's certainly a lot of nationalism here - not so dissimilar to the pro-English stuff down south.
Even intelligent people just try to avoid thinking about the realities of independence - they make up some story about Nicola must know what she's doing because she's a good person, or you can't believe any of the figures so you just have to rely on your gut feelings, or - good politicians will appear as soon as Scotland is independent (despite all the current ones being horrendous).

The UK could recruit that 11% back quite quickly, as it has recruit and further training facilities for all 3 branches of the armed forces.

If they fulfilled the citizenship requirements. Say Scotland did raise its own army; and that Scottish people were also free to join the U.K. army. Firstly unless they felt strongly about their nationality, most would join the U.K. army (possibly in a Scottish regiment), as the U.K. army would be bigger, more sophisticated and with more opportunities career-wise.

What’s the point in having two armed forces alongside each other in that way? Not sharing resources, training land, expertise, bases etc? Unless you envision war between the U.K. and Scotland in the future (which would never happen if only because Scotland would be flattened), we may as well pool resources in order to defend our island.

It’s such a silly idea on so many levels.