Do you think the English, if given a vote, would vote for independence from the rest of the UK?

[Kendodd]

Yabu - No they wouldn't
Yanbu - Yes they would

The break up of the UK seems high chance to me, maybe 60/40 to be voted for within the next ten years. They don't ever seem to ask the English what would you personally vote?

If you take a longer term perspective it's only natural to expect occasional resurgences of interest in independence in Scotland (and to a lesser extent Wales). Remember the it was only after Culloden that hopes for a truly independent Scotland were finally destroyed.

The ties ares are too close, the societies and economies too integrated to unravel at this stage. Anyway, without financial assistance from England the Scots/Welsh would essentially be like Albania (nice weather, nice scenery, but poverty stricken backwaters).

@BidensWingWoman

there was another problem

Yeah. This one.

People didn't vote independence based on the political climate at the time, which was in part based on the argument that it would be the only way we would stay within the EU.

The political climate has changed significantly since then. So with the new knowledge and changing situation its fair to assume that some people might vote differently.

But I'm sure you'll disagree...

Its not for me to disagree or not - Scottish people are going to decide if there is another referendum.

I suppose what I really want to know is - because if I was a nationalist I would think there were diminishing returns in calling for a referendum if I wasn't sure I could win. I would have to find the right moment to call it and have that problem addressed and in the bag for this time. I see the polls have shifted but they will soften won't they as you get into the debate for independence. So what is the strategy here?

Some people in London would vote to leave the UK if they could.

The last time the campaign for independence started the polls showed iirc something like 30-odd % in favour, and the vote in the end was very close.

There's really no way of telling which way it would go this time though. I'm sure there will be a lot more mud slinging before it's over!

I would vote to keep the union. I’m English and living in England.

Having said that, I am sick of hearing Nicola Sturgeon go on and on about independence and twisting any random political issue towards independence. For this reason, I can imagine many English people thinking “just fuck off then” in the face of the relentless pursuit of this agenda by NS and voting to break up the union.

I’m not right wing, I didn’t vote Tory but sometimes I find myself thinking oh just bloody call up Trump and he can “build a wall” between England and Scotland so that there’s no more NS bolloxing on about it. Almost like being in a marriage where your spouse continually berates you and you snap.

It’s true to say that keeping on repeating an idea, even if it’s a bad idea, keeps that idea alive.

Its not for me to disagree or not - Scottish people are going to decide if there is another referendum.

Well current wisdom is that the rest of the UK - i.e. England and Wales and Northern Ireland are gong to decide that. It most certainly isn't going to be the Scottish people is it ?

Rather makes their point, doesn't it ?

The Scottish referendum will be for Scotland, the UK as a structure remains if they leave. This is a theoretical thread about the English leaving. I'm pretty interested in the strategy for ensuring a win for independence.

But NI has Ireland to (re)join...

I find this sentiment trotted out too easily. Reunification would be difficult and expensive. Aside from the obvious issues it would cause in NI, I am not sure enough people in RoI want it. We are different countries and have been for 100 years. We're great neighbours, but not everyone is keen on us moving in together.

I think NI would be better sticking with Scotland and Wales in an Englandless UK.

@zafferana - Westminster treats all the devolved Nations as inferior, as if they need to be grateful for the scraps from their table. They weren't consulted meaningfully over Brexit, they weren't allowed to close their borders during the pandemic (not a devolved issue), the narrative over vaccines had been that Westminster has graciously provided them with vaccines. They haven't been working in union because Johnson's government isn't interested in discussion. So how much worse would it be for Wales left as the hanger on.

The SNP campaign for independence has failed. I appreciate that they are having a crack again but what does it say about them that their fellow countrymen and women said no, and also, that they couldn't convince them otherwise? Either they weren't good enough or there was another problem

It was a close result in 2014 and a lot of people fell for all the lies including voting No was the only way to stay in tbe EU. Look how that worked out.

God no.
I’d be really really sad if the scottish voted to leave the union as well.

I do think it would be madness to have a vote so soon after the last one. We need everything to settle after the last one, Covid and of course brexit.

Too many still clutching to the last vestiges of empire for that.

I wouldn't vote for it, but after the shambles what was brexit, I wouldn't even trust voters to decide whether we have oxygen or not....

I think a United Ireland is pretty much a dead cert within the next 20 years.

While I love the romanticised view of a United Ireland, I just don't see how NI would survive outside the UK. Look at their sources of employment. The civil service is a major employer in NI, I'm not sure what would make up for the loss of that employer. The shipyard has all but closed, replaced with a lovely hotel. Vibrant hospitality sector (pre covid ) but what would make up for the loss of the civil service.

How do you compensate people who have paid tax and NI for all their working lives, suddenly finding themselves in a country where health care is no longer free at point of use?

@LagunaBubbles

The SNP campaign for independence has failed. I appreciate that they are having a crack again but what does it say about them that their fellow countrymen and women said no, and also, that they couldn't convince them otherwise? Either they weren't good enough or there was another problem

It was a close result in 2014 and a lot of people fell for all the lies including voting No was the only way to stay in tbe EU. Look how that worked out.

I suppose what I am driving at is that to win, you need a strategy. Most of the same issues are going to come out again, and then the EU is new.

The SNP must think that Brexit is enough to change that and they will get enough votes from that. If it isn't, then having another referendum is enough. It would be interesting to hear from old "no" voters who are now a "yes".

Then after the SNP win in May, when is the referendum going to come?

@LexMitior

I dont know is the answer to that. Boris will never grant a Section 30 so the SNP will need plan B.

[quote LagunaBubbles]@LexMitior

I dont know is the answer to that. Boris will never grant a Section 30 so the SNP will need plan B.[/quote]
What does it say if a countries determination on it's future is the sole gift of another country ?

[quote LagunaBubbles]@LexMitior

I dont know is the answer to that. Boris will never grant a Section 30 so the SNP will need plan B.[/quote]
I agree. What is plan B? It sounds like there isn't one?

[quote luckylavender]@zafferana - Westminster treats all the devolved Nations as inferior, as if they need to be grateful for the scraps from their table. They weren't consulted meaningfully over Brexit, they weren't allowed to close their borders during the pandemic (not a devolved issue), the narrative over vaccines had been that Westminster has graciously provided them with vaccines. They haven't been working in union because Johnson's government isn't interested in discussion. So how much worse would it be for Wales left as the hanger on.[/quote]
If their economies depend on scraps and subsidies, then they are inferior. Their economies are not paying their way. At a point, that is the only legitimate way of judging a "nation's" viability. Being able to borrow on world markets is closely related but contingent on future expectations. I'd be interested to see a multi-faceted appraisal of Scotland's medium term future.

Actually there is a plan B - the SNP will legislate to say that they have the power to make a lawful referendum and dare Westminster to challenge it.

Its a pretty good constitutional bomb. It either works or it doesn't. That is pretty ballsy of Nicola Sturgeon.

And there's still the appeal of the Keatings case.

@luckylavender but can Wales pay its own way? That's the question for it and for Scotland. It's one thing wanting independence, another being able to afford it.

I think this is both clever politically and legally. The SG doesn't have the power to make such legislation itself, but invites a legal challenge on the point.

If the SNP lose then it will be that independence truly is once in a generation. So high risk for them. But a fascinating argument to come. I wonder who the SNP will get to do the case.

The SNP must think that Brexit is enough to change that and they will get enough votes from that. If it isn't, then having another referendum is enough. It would be interesting to hear from old "no" voters who are now a "yes".

The day after the Brexit vote my 80 year old English-born incomer said to me "I wish I'd voted Yes in the Indyref now". She's a decent, honourable woman and she'd just seen her three Scottish-born grandchildren stripped of their rights as European citizens and their futures tied to the whims of a corrupt Westminster government.

Two of those grandchildren are now old enough to vote. (The voting age in Scotland for those who don't know is 16 for just about everything but General Elections.) One of the things I suspect driving the surge in the Indy vote is that my mother's (probably more NO voting) generation are dying out, and my kids' generation are pretty fucking pissed off at having been treated so shabbily by Westminster.

It's demographics.

@ThereIsNoSuchThingAsRoadTax

"Scotland. Based in their levels of spending the last 20 years the SNP are deluded (and when interviewed by Andrew Neil, Sturgeon just spluttered) Only have to be familiar with the yearly analysis of U.K. spending by the IFS.
*
Oh, well if the IFS says so...
The IFS, set up by a Tory politician in direct response to Labour tax policy and a firm believer in extreme free-market economics. Obviously an impartial source of information."*

Err yes it is impartial...but importantly Nicola Sturgeon acknowledges that the data is correct. What she doesn't agree with is that spending at this level as an independent country isn't sustainable, despite not being able to show a single example of a country that has without Venezuela levels of economic wreckage and inflation. I actually think Brexit will be a useful example of the SNP having if there is another referendum answering very difficult questions that so far they haven't