AIBU to ask if you think there's a chance schools could be closed till September?

[Turmericpie]

I had assumed worse case scenario would be summer term...but it was pointed out to me tonight that if vaccinations are slow in rolling out, it could quite conceivably be September.

Thoughts?

@GarlicSoup

Surely schools should only reopen when it is safe to do so whenever that may be.

Define safe though? Everyone has their own idea of safe. To some people that means 0 Covid cases which isn't likely to ever happen.

The whole thing is depressing
I think Easter

I really think a lot of posters on here think schools should stay shut until Covid has been totally eradicated (ie about 30 years)

Very unlikely. The vaccine rollout would have to totally come off the rails for that to happen.

Even if its very slow and delayed, there will come a point where they have vaccinated enough of the very high risk groups that the hospitalisations will have tapered off, the NHS is able to breathe again and the risk of death will have been reduced sufficiently that they can open up to some degree.

Also factor in that warmer weather plus lockdowns will combine to take numbers down, even if its slow.

I don't have a great deal of faith in this government but things would have to be really apocalyptic for them to close schools for nine months.

I’ve told ds y11 he might not be back to school this year

@GorgonzolaSouffle

I’ve told ds y11 he might not be back to school this year

Why?

Most teachers and school staff won't be vaccinated until,the summer holidays so I think it's highly likely, yes.

If I had to bet, I would say anyway between after Feb half term and Easter. I seriously doubt it would be any later than Easter.

@parkpoolplunge

Most teachers and school staff won't be vaccinated until,the summer holidays so I think it's highly likely, yes.

The older/vulnerable teachers will have been vaccinated, so no reason why the schools should stay closed.

[quote Countdowntonothing]@TheSunIsStillShining

The number of cases doesn't actually matter, a lot will be mild or asymptomatic. What matters is the death toll and hospitalization figures. Once enough people have been vaccinated, the death toll and number of hospitalizations should drastically reduce. Then, even though there will still be transmission, the risk of severity will be drastically reduced and we should be able to reduce restrictions. [/quote]
I don't agree. Infection rates matter as long as you don't have all (E)CV and CV ppl + over60? vaccinated. That is somewhere around 20m if I remember correctly,
If:
we have constant and level vacc supply to do 1m vaccination/week that is still 20 weeks. And at week 12 we have to start over. so from w12 the new vacc /week will be only 500k (just estimate), meaning that the last 8m (by JCVI the under 40 CV pop mostly) will take twice as much time. So instead of the initial 20 weeks it''ll be more along the lines of 28 weeks. And they will have to keep going on a rolling basis. So looking at June/July

And this is a best case scenario. Given how they have literally fucked up everything so far are you surprised that I don't have blind faith in them to do this properly?

Again: without knowing even how many vacc and in what intervals are coming into the country it is nothing more than a wishing game.

and back to infection rates: it matters as even asymptomatic/mild cases can result in long covid. Putting further and constant strain on nhs.
Plus, whilst infection numbers are high cv pop are still very much at risk. And they have kids, jobs,... but if there is a false sense and hope of everything'll be fine jack, than they will be in an even worse position than now.

What is totally true in any case that atm the priority is to help not collapse the NHS. But let's face it: it's at the brink because everything has been so mishandled.

@Kazzyhoward
Pls. disprove my above theory on timelines and prove how e/cv and older teachers will be vaccinated before summer....

It's impossible to tell at the moment. It depends on infection, death and r rates, the virus variants and the success of the vaccination programme. Some of it is down to the government, gawd help us, and some of it is down to us. Personally, I suspect Easter is a possibility, Feb HT too soon given the current rates.

One more thing to add:
it doesn't fill me with confidence how priority groups are being played with. Compared to the initial list it is said now that HCPs will receive their doses soon(ish - whatever the hell that means). But that implies that other who were in the initial list have gone further down the line.
There is now talk of moving teachers up the list.*
So any guessing around vaccination speed/dates is throwing darts blindfolded at a pinata.

*I fully hope that this will be the case, but kids will still be happily spreading it.... but that's besides the point...

@Muminho

No chance for February. Look at the numbers - nearly 70k cases today. The last lockdown was better observed and it still took 3 months to get the thing under control. But if the vaccine roll out is successful I'm hopeful for a return after Easter.

But, for us at least, returning after Feb half term, is SIX WEEKS away. As far as CV is concerned, that's a long time away.

I think they will go back, at least some years, after Feb half term, with all being back before Easter.

@Covidasaurus

Speak to any NHS or local authority staff and they are not expecting return before September. Might just be worst-case planning, but...

I have not heard any of my nhs colleagues day this. I work for an nhs service which works in school.

I bloody hope not. Year 11 and 13 haven't done end of year 10 and 12 exams, and in a lot of cases mocks either. They need to be in school at some point this year.

I fear it may be September, at least a lot of people seem to think so? I don't know if this is based on any facts or if it is speculation. I would say that most (every) worst case scenario to date has come to pass, so why would this be an exception.

It would be absolutely awful. I don't know what we would do. I really, really hope that schools will reopen as soon as possible. Fingers crossed!!!!

If you want school open push for teachers to be vaccinated.

No other profession has such high rates of contacts without PPE.

I Can’t see many teachers staying in the profession the way they’ve been treated.

@BluebellsGreenbells

If you want school open push for teachers to be vaccinated.

No other profession has such high rates of contacts without PPE.

I Can’t see many teachers staying in the profession the way they’ve been treated.

Police? Prison staff? Workers in food processing plants? Supermarket check out workers?

Lots of professions are unable to social distance and come into close contact with people yet are not being prioritised for the vaccine. A big difference between all the groups mentions and teachers though is that they were also in close contact from April to June with no rotas etc to keep them working from home most of the time. Maybe they’ve just got more used to it?

If we want schools to be open we need the elderly and clinically vulnerable to vaccinated. This will reduce the risk of the nhs being overwhelmed and therefore allow schools to open. Thank goodness this is what is already planned and has started to happen!

Teachers are being told mid February.

If teachers are vaccinated and testing works well -( quickly isolating any positive cases) then they should go back. Parents should lobby for these two things to happen.

Totally agree. Can’t bear it when posters just drop a hugely anxiety-inducing bomb shell like this with no explanation/reasoning. Nihilistic, vague catastrophising is not helpful.

I think there will be quick rollout of the vaccine. The sticking point will be how many people refuse to have it.
I think phased return from March, the schools with loads of kids in probably won’t have capacity for that though so maybe just all back in March or April. Healthy younger people getting covid is not really the concern at this stage.

@Livelovebehappy

If people carry on flouting the rules, as many seem to be doing, then I would definitely say it’s likely to be September.

This.

People here on MN asking if OK to meet friends for a walk 10 miles away, parents who are both WFH or with one SAHP insisting that nursery or school is essential for little Johnny because he misses his friends and structure to his day, people who are fed up of the restrictions and just refusing to comply, people insisting on stretching the definition of "support bubble", people being selfish, entitled and like covid is someone else's problem. All common reasons why at this rate, the pandemic will just worsen. Obviously not directly in correlation with what this government will decide to do, then u turn in the 11th hour. They may well re open schools even if the infection rate remains sky high.

@BluebellsGreenbells

If you want school open push for teachers to be vaccinated.

No other profession has such high rates of contacts without PPE.

I Can’t see many teachers staying in the profession the way they’ve been treated.

Exactly this. Same applies to Early Years and Nursery staff.

They've really tried to prioritise schools so I think Easter at the latest and hopefully a bit before that.